Pantheon Publications

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, December 2024

• In one line: Payroll tax hikes hit employment, but the REC survey likely exaggerates the drop and wage growth rises.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, January

Tariff worries likely pushing up inflation expectations.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: Industrial Output, Mexico, November, 2024

• In one line: A poor start to Q4, and the near-term outlook is grim.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

Global Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, January, 2025

• In one line: A modest cut; approaching the end of the easing cycle.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, January, 2025

• In one line: A modest cut; approaching the end of the easing cycle.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

Global Datanote: CPI, Brazil, December, 2024

• In one line: A modest downtick in late Q4, but the outlook is grim. 

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, December, 2024

• In one line: A modest downtick in late Q4, but the outlook is grim. 

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, November

• In one line: A credible pop in growth, Diwali noise aside.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, November

• In one line: A credible pop in growth, Diwali noise aside.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, November 2024

In one line: Disappointing, but output will snap back quickly.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Consumers' Spending, France, November 2024

In one line: Better than feared. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)UK

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10 January 2025

Indonesian sales growth should at least settle at a floor, shortly

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 January 2025 US Monitor Payrolls are too noisy for December's data to convincing signal an upturn

• December payroll growth likely will be revised to a slower pace, given the usual skew in late responses.
• The trend is revealed only from data spanning about six months; payroll growth was lower in H2 than H1.
• Homebase data make payroll forecasts less accurate; they are a poor guide even to hospitality payrolls.

Samuel TombsUS

13 January 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's inflation ends 2024 on a good note, but the outlook is dismal

• Brazil’s headline inflation ended 2024 benignly, but the outlook is difficult, demanding urgent action.
• Fiscal solutions are needed, even if slowing activity and higher interest rates will contain inflation.
• The retail and industrial sectors face increasing hurdles, as November’s data highlight.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

13 January 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't put much stock into India's 6.4% FAE; the slowdown isn't over

• India’s 6.4% advance GDP estimate for 2024/25 is on the rosy side and includes contradictory details…
• …The slowdown isn’t over, and we can’t see how the FAE squares rising demand with falling imports.
• Retail sales in Indonesia appear to have ended 2024 ver y softly; this is oddly reassuring.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 January 2025 China+ Monitor BoJ left in a bind, with mixed signals on the wage outlook

• Governor Ueda is keeping the BoJ's options open, monitoring Mr. Trump's return to power, and wages.
• Japan's November wage growth was steady, but most small firms aren't planning big wage hikes.
• Manufacturers are surprisingly optimistic, despite the darkening risks of trade protectionism.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

13 January 2025 EZ Monitor France hit a soft patch in Q4, which will extend into early 2025

• GDP in France likely fell slightly in Q4, and we doubt that Q1 will deliver a strong rebound…
• …But we’re still betting that solid real income growth will support stronger GDP growth from Q2.
• We now forecast 2025 GDP growth in France of 0.8%, marginally higher than the consensus.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 January 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: more inflation persistence means fewer rate cuts

• Inflation staying at 2.6% in December would be a temporary reprieve; it’s heading to 3.2% in April.
• The GDP rebound in November should lead to doubts about the accuracy of the PMI.
• Rising inflation expectations suggest the bond market is right to expect the MPC to be cautious.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: Brazil Retail Sales, November, 2024

• In one line: Under pressure due to tight financial conditions. 

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

Global Datanote: CPI, Mexico, December, 2024

• In one line: The downtrend is on track. 

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global