- In one line: A genuine surprise; at least three more cuts this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Ignore the volatility, the trade surplus is growing, slowly.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Ignore the volatility, Indonesia's trade surplus is growing, slowly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Massive rise in airline fares leaves core PCE deflator set to rise by 0.3%.
Samuel TombsUS
Politics still making the NFIB harder to read.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Brazil — Fiscal issues to remain a drag
- Mexico — A cautiously optimistic outlook
- Colombia — Monetary policy easing will be a support
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Bank Indonesia surprised the universal consensus for a hold this month, lowering the BI rate to 5.75%…
- …The Board is right to tolerate the rupiah’s dollar- driven slump, amid its rising GDP growth worries.
- Ignore the December collapse in the trade surplus; smoothing out the noise yields a rising trend.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The investment downturn in Germany deepened in 2024; the new government will need to act.
- This year should be a year of recovery for growth in German household consumption.
- Headline inflation in France is set for a volatile few months due to big swings in energy prices.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- December’s surprise inflation fall gives the MPC a narrow window of opportunity to cut rates in February.
- But lower inflation was due to plunging airfares, driven by an early CPI collection date.
- Airfares inflation will surge in January, as will private-school fees, raising CPI inflation to 2.8%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Credit growth propped up by government bond issuance, but sagging long-term corporate loans bode ill for investment
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Improvement in industry in Q4 is partly why we think GDP growth rebounded.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Expect a quieter year for Indian WPI inflation in 2025
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: China's 2024 export value surpasses Covid peak, trade surplus hits record high
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s producer price deflation eases further, but overcapacity risks remain.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s core inflation shows a silver lining; Headline CPI nears deflation on falling food prices.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s foreign reserves fell more than consensus in December, thanks to sizable valuation effect.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- US - Payrolls are too noisy for December’s data to convincing signal an upturn
- EUROZONE - Will dovish Q1 inflation help bruised and battered EZ bonds?
- UK - GDP likely rebounded by 0.2% month-to-month in November
- CHINA+ - All eyes on China’s likely response to President Trump’s opening salvo
- EM ASIA - Don’t put much stock into India’s 6.4% FAE; the slowdown isn’t over
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation ends 2024 on a good note, but the outlook is dismal
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Colombia’s headline disinflation paused in December, but the core improved.
- High fiscal uncertainty and a huge minimum-wage increase complicate BanRep’s rate-cutting ability.
- The government must tackle the fiscal deficit, rising debt and reform issues to allow BanRep to act freely.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
