- Argentina’s economy enjoyed a solid end to 2024, and the outlook remains benign, though not risk-free.
- Growth prospects are driven by exports, capex, structural improvements in key sectors, and disinflation.
- Mr. Milei will have to balance fiscal discipline with IMF negotiations and political resistance to reforms.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Vietnam’s new leadership is once again saying the right things about promoting the private sector…
- …But SOEs have fallen in number; those remaining are bigger, more profitable and more efficient.
- They don’t invest as much as other firms though, strengthening the case for their further diminution.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The jump in investor sentiment points to a higher EZ Composite PMI in March.
- Current account data suggest services trade may be a drag on EZ GDP in Q1; inventories may offset it.
- The INSEE survey shows improving, but still subdued, business confidence in France.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We are comfortable forecasting only two more rate cuts this year after hawkish tweaks to MPC guidance.
- Employment continues to hold up relative to surveys, and pay growth is far too strong to deliver 2% inflation.
- Ms. Reeves can rectify OBR forecast changes with only small spending cuts, affecting the MPC little.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Slightly more cautious committee keeps an option to skip a quarterly cut.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The labour market holding up will keep the MPC gradual and careful, or maybe cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: The end of the road for the SNB’s current easing cycle?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Construction kept going at the start of 2025.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The end of the road for the SNB’s current easing cycle?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Another bold rate hike, but the magnitude of tightening will be reduced in May.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Another bold rate hike, but the magnitude of tightening will be reduced in May.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The surprisingly hawkish 8-to-1 vote to hold rates, and guidance changes, signal a more cautious MPC.
- Saying policy is not “on a pre-set path” gives the MPC the option to skip a cut at May’s meeting.
- The risk of a sharp job fall fades as the hard data hold up; pay growth remains too strong for 2% inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The SNB cut rates for the fifth straight meeting, as expected, taking the policy rate to 0.25%.
- The lack of changes to the decision statement and forecasts means June’s meeting is wide open…
- ...But we maintain that the Bank has more reasons to keep its powder dry than cut again.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Keeping its powder dry, but we’re not quite sure why.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Keeping its powder dry, but we’re not quite sure why.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
