Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Boost from lower rates likely has only a bit further to run.
- In one line: Payrolls flattered by the seasonals; rising unemployment keeps a December easing in play.
Payrolls flattered by the seasonals; rising unemployment keeps a December easing in play.
In one line: Stable in November; spending should pick up regardless.
- In one line: Enough for a December cut, but also enough to keep the MPC cautious about the pace of subsequent cuts.
- In one line: Manufacturing output to remain weak in Q4.
- In one line: Tax-hike speculation to continue dragging on house prices in Q4.
- In one line: Poor; residual Diwali noise is only partly to blame.
In one line: Construction had a neutral impact on EZ GDP in Q3.
December hangs in the balance, but substantial easing probably still lies ahead.
- The pick-up in payrolls was a by-product of the most generous September seasonal on record...
- ...The chances of a downward revision are very high; October’s report will be substantially weaker too.
- The rise in the unemployment rate is being fuelled by new entrants and layoffs; expect more to come in Q4.
- The EZ current account surplus rose marginally in September; a strong euro will bring it down in 2026.
- Foreign investors have moved away from EZ debt and piled into EZ equities over the past year.
- EZ construction output was flat in Q3, after declining in the previous quarter; Q4 will likely be a little better.
- The Government’s U-turn on hiking income tax shows that the political situation is deteriorating…
- ...So, we raise our forecast for the 10-year yield to end 2025 at 4.65%, and the 30-year at 5.45%.
- Risks to yields are upward as a potential Labour Party leadership challenge increases the pressure to spend.
In one line: Inflation to stay above 2% in Q4.
- In one line: Easing should resume in December, with a final 25bp move.
- In one line: Easing should resume in December, with a final 25bp move.
The AI tide is finally lifting Malaysian exports
Dip in mortgage rates providing only a small tailwind.
- In one line: Momentum fades as mining weakens, while domestic demand holds firm.
- The BLS’ new data calendar means today’s employment report is make-or-break for a December easing.
- The GDPNow model is running a bit too hot; GDP growth in Q3 of about 31/2% seems more likely.
- October’s jump in WARN filings is due to new laws in Washington state; the trend is rising moderately.
