Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- In one line: New Governor Shin signals rate hikes are on the way
In one line: BoK stays put today but new Governor Shin signals rate hikes on the way
BI SHOCKS WITH A 50BP HIKE; Q1 STRENGTH DUBIOUS
- …TAIWAN STILL FLYING, BUT DOWNSIDE RISKS ARE RISING
- Q1 growth in personal consumption was revised down to 1.4%, from 1.6%; April saw a marginal rise.
- Real after-tax income has dropped by 1.1% since April; the saving rate is now effectively at its floor.
- Rising asset prices will help, but sluggish growth in real wages and less fiscal support will limit spending.
- Mr. de la Espriella and Mr. Cepeda appear to be heading for a highly polarised run-off in Colombia.
- Security issues and fatigue with the Petro administration increasingly favour the opposition.
- A political shift will likely improve sentiment, but the structural vulnerabilities will remain.
- Singapore’s inflation was a surprise in April, as it held at 1.8%, despite the Middle East oil shock...
- ...Falling health premiums helped to moderate inflation, while transport inflation wasn’t that bad.
- Taiwan’s consumption stayed robust in April, notwithstanding the Middle East crisis.
- Chinese youth unemployment is hovering near historic highs, with AI only the latest factor weighing on hiring.
- We estimate the 10pp rise in youth unemployment since 2018 has knocked around 0.5pp off GDP growth.
- Still, China’s pursuit of AI as a critical growth engine aligns with public excitement and trust in AI.
- Energy inflation likely took a breather in May, but the EZ core will be pushed higher by a jump in services.
- EC economic sentiment rose slightly in May, painting a more positive picture than the PMIs.
- The fall in Spanish retail sales in April sends an ominous signal for EZ consumers’ spending in Q2.
- The housing market has so far avoided a knee-jerk reaction to the latest energy price shock.
- But rising mortgage rates will limit house prices to 1.0% growth in 2026.
- House price inflation should improve to 3.0% in Q4 2027 as interest rates fall back.
- In one line: Inflation pressures remained broad-based in May.
CHINA+ OUTLOOK
- - CHINA'S Q2 WEAK START ONLY PARTLY DUE TO IRAN WAR
- - BOJ LIKELY TO RESUME POLICY NORMALISATION IN JUNE
- - NEW BOK GOVERNOR LIKELY TO SET HAWKISH TONE
- Industrial profits accelerated in April, supported by PPI reflation and better margins in the upstream sector.
- Gains were uneven, skewed towards energy and high-tech sectors, but broader momentum is improving.
- Profit growth will likely ease later this year as external demand softens and energy-price support fades.
- Rising inflation and subdued wage growth point to an outright fall in French real incomes in 2026…
- …But the indexation of minimum wages and social transfers will cushion the blow, in part.
- We now see GDP in France rising by just 0.7% this year, slowing from 0.9% growth in 2025.
- The insolvency rate remains low, suggesting a resilience to slower GDP growth in H2 2025.
- Higher borrowing costs will hit highly indebted and low-margin sectors of the economy.
- Corporate insolvencies will drift higher in the coming months, but we see few signs of major damage yet.
Consistent with renewed labor market weakness.
- US - The fiscal sugar rush for households is over; meager rations lie ahead
- EUROZONE - PMIs indicate the EZ economy is now in stagflation
- UK - CPI review: much—not all—of the downside news will unwind
- CHINA+ - Weak JPY pushing BoJ to hike rates, despite slowing inflation
- EM ASIA - BI’s huge, but explicitly pre-emptive, 50bp rate hike likely a one-off
- LATAM - Brazil’s economy still resilient, but restrictive policy is biting
- The increase in asset prices over the past year implies a one percentage point boost to consumption...
- ..A bit less than rules of thumb imply, due to low confidence, already-low saving and high borrowing costs.
- Real incomes probably will rise just 4% year-over-year in Q4, limiting spending growth to 1%%.
- Capex and construction in Peru continue to drive one of LatAm’s strongest recoveries…
- …But higher oil prices and persistent core inflation complicate the BCRP’s policy outlook.
- Political uncertainty and tighter global conditions threaten momentum over the coming quarters.
- Thailand’s trade deficit blowout in April was caused to a large extent by a violent swing in seasonals…
- …But the adjusted gap still hit a record low; we’ve cut our 2026 current account forecast to -1.5%.
- The oil-price boost to yearly import growth should peak soon, but exports are losing momentum too.
- Thailand’s trade deficit blowout in April was caused to a large extent by a violent swing in seasonals…
…But the adjusted gap still hit a record low; we’ve cut our 2026 current account forecast to -1.5%.
- The oil-price boost to yearly import growth should peak soon, but exports are losing momentum too.
