Pantheon Publications

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, September 2025

• In one line: Dovish as activity growth slows, price pressures ease and margins are squeezed, but Q3 average PMI was OK.

EZ Datanote: Construction PMI, Eurozone, September 2025

In one line: Not pretty, but the official numbers are better.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, August 2025

In one line: Down marginally, likely rebounded in September.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 October 2025

Vietnamese growth slipped marginally—in reality—in Q3
Don’t put too much weight on the September uptick in Vietnamese sales
A sense of deja vu… Vietnam’s exports to the US steal the show to close Q3
Transport deflation in Vietnam finally comes to an end, for now
CPI expectations in Thailand need a further recalibration down

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, September 2025

An unreliable guide to growth in services spending.

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, August, 2025

• In one line: Signs of modest recovery in August, but the outlook remains fragile.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, August 2025

In one line: On track for a boost to Q3 GDP growth.

UK Datanote: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, September 2025

• In one line: Employment falls fail to open spare capacity so wage and price pressures remain stubbornly too high.

October 2025 - U.K. Housing Watch

HOUSE PRICES DROP IN JULY...

• ...AND BUDGET UNCERTAINTY TO DRAG ON ACTIVITY IN H2

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, August 2025

In one line: Nothing to see, the trend is flat.

6 October 2025 US Monitor The Fed will need to be nimbler than usual if the economy founders

• Households have delevered over the last five years and many have fixed-rate mortgages with low rates.
• Reducing the funds rate to 3% next year merely would stabilize the effective mortgage rate.
• The weakness in the ISM surveys in Q3 probably is understating the economy’s underlying momentum.

6 October 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile's growth slows in August, but core economy shows resilience

• A mining accident disrupted output in Chile, hurting activity, while commerce provided stability.
• Fiscal revenues rose on higher royalties and copper prices, though election-year spending risks persist.
• A right-wing political shift would bring business friendly reforms, likely boosting investor confidence.

6 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI surveys say "what 50% tariff?"... momentum waning regardless

• The RBI’s latest IOS shows that exporters, for now, remain largely unfazed by Trump’s 50% tariff…
• …Nevertheless, the actual industry assessment for Q3 shows further softening in output and orders.
• It’s early doors, but surveys show no aggregate price cuts in the pipeline in the wake of GST 2.0.

6 October 2025 China+ Monitor Japan's resilient Q3 Tankan should tip the balance towards a BoJ hike

• Governor Ueda’s upbeat comments on the Q3 Tankan lay the ground for an October policy rate hike.
• Economic conditions are soft, and political and trade risks linger, but the BoJ is keen to normalise policy.
• The Bank is likely to recognise a window of opportunity amid relative market stability to normalise policy.

6 October 2025 Eurozone Monitor Spain continues to outperform; Italian GDP should rebound

• Spanish GDP for Q2 was revised up, and surveys and hard data suggest we are too downbeat on Q3...
• ...We are revising up our forecast, though we still look for GDP growth to slow a touch.
• Italian GDP, meanwhile, is still likely to rise by 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, reversing Q2’s decline.

6 October 2025 UK Monitor Week in review: growth close to potential keeps inflation sticky

• September’s weak PMI sharpens the downside risk to our calls, but we stick to 0.2% quarterly growth in Q3.
• GDP growth was well balanced in H1, and credit flows point to solid private demand in Q3 too.
• Stubborn wages and inflation in the DMP, as spare capacity fails to open up, imply a cautious MPC.

September 2025 - EZ Economic Chartbook

INFLATION ABOVE 2% WILL KEEP THE ECB ON HOLD IN Q4

…THE EURO AND ENERGY PRICES ALLOWING

September 2025- UK Chartbook

BUILDING FISCAL RISKS THE MAIN CHALLENGE...

• …TO OUR FORECAST FOR THE MPC TO HOLD BANK RATE

Global Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, September 2025

• In one line: At 0.2% for third straight month.

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, September 2025

In on line: At 0.2% for third straight month.