- US tariffs on steel and aluminium would have only a minimal direct impact on EZ exports and GDP…
- …But the constant threat of tariffs is raising uncertainty for firms, adding to downside risks for capex.
- The CDU/CSU remains in pole position in Germany, but it is ceding ground to the AFD.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Rebounding airfares, and private-school fee hikes, will drive up CPI inflation to 2.8% in January.
- CPI services inflation should surge to 5.2% in January, matching the MPC’s updated forecasts.
- Risks lie to the upside of our forecast for CPI inflation to reach 3.4% in April and 3.5% in September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The labour market improved marginally in January but remains hobbled according to the REC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Producer prices extend their decline with broad price falls
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's headline consumer inflation buoyed by holiday travel and spending; underlying trend still weak for both consumer and producer prices
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tariffs worries continue to weigh on confidence.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Positive near-term revisions offset the subpar January print; a March easing is off the table.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: A larger cut; improving inflation outlook allows for bolder action.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A larger cut; improving inflation outlook allows for bolder action.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A good start to the year, supporting further policy normalisation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A good start to the year, supporting further policy normalisation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Inflation spikes in January, driven by electricity tariffs.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Inflation spikes in January, driven by electricity tariffs.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
China’s foreign reserves rose in January, likely on the back of export front loading ahead of tariff risks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Snapping back, but strength unlikely to continue.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Output stung by falling auto production; exports finish 2024 on a strong note.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: The first cut is finally here; expect at least one more by mid-year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
The RBI’s first cut is finally here; expect at least one more by mid-year
The impressive run-up in Philippine sales at end-2024 owes partly to short-lived tail
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
