- Tax hikes and tariff uncertainty kept UK growth weak at 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4.
- But the economy is in better shape than feared, after a consensus-busting 0.4% monthly gain in December.
- Strong consumer services spending suggests rapid real wage growth will help GDP rebound in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Indonesian sales boosted modestly by front-loading before the VAT rate hike
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Under severe strain, and risks are tilted to the downside.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Modest January pressures offer little relief to a challenging inflation outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Modest January pressures offer little relief to a challenging inflation outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Post-Trump euphoria already starting to fade.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Brazil — A solid start to the year as sentiment improves
- Mexico — A solid rebound, but threats remain
- Colombia — Economic tailwinds offset political noise
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Sales growth in Indonesia rebounded in December, as consumers brought forward some spending…
- …Ahead of what was ultimately a narrow VAT rate hike; expect an immediate correction in January.
- Overall, headline growth remains historically tepid, and leading indicators are still uninspiring.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Only around 40% of EU Resilience & Recovery Facility cash has been disbursed to member states.
- Bureaucracy, rising costs and supply-chain issues are holding back the pace of fund absorption.
- A lot needs to be done by August 2026 to mobilise remaining funds; not everyone will get there.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- December’s payrolls fall should be revised up, and we look for a 20K month-to-month drop in January.
- The official unemployment rate likely ticked up to 4.5% in December, and is trending up gradually.
- Private-sector ex-bonus AWE likely rose 0.4% month-to-month in December, keeping the MPC cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- US - Stabilizing jobs numbers remove the need for near-term Fed easing
- EUROZONE - Another day, another tariff threat, this time on steel and aluminium
- UK - Focus on hawkish forecasts rather than two votes for a 50bp cut
- CHINA+ - China’s holiday spending is robust, but it won’t last
- EM ASIA - Malhotra’s RBI debut was both no shock and unexpectedly reassuring
- LATAM - Banxico accelerates easing, but US policy will influence the outlook
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Brazil’s inflation dipped slightly in January, but the near-term outlook remains bleak…
- …But pressures will ease in H2 as weakening domestic and external demand weigh on inflation.
- A very, very ugly outlook for Mexico’s industrial sector under Trump 2.0; it could be avoided though.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Bunds have hovered close to fair value since the beginning of the year, according to our models.
- US Treasuries and Schatz point to upside risks to Bund yields, but fundamentals pull the other way.
- Near-term risks to Bund yields are tilted to the downside, before bear-steepening in H2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Stronger ONS population forecasts should boost potential output growth by 0.1pp per year.
- The OBR will likely cut productivity growth forecasts, leaving potential growth unchanged.
- We estimate the Chancellor has about £5B of headroom against her fiscal rules.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Decent, but also behind the Trump-curve.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Colombia’s disinflation has paused, complicating BanRep’s efforts to support activity.
- Increased political noise, elevated fiscal strain and external uncertainty are challenges for policymakers.
- Chile’s electricity-tariff hike sparks an inflation surge, dimming hopes for further rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
