Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
PBoC waiting for the trade war to heat up
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Waiting for more disinflation progress to ease again.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
GROWTH IN SPENDING & PAYROLLS TO SLOW MID-YEAR…
- …FALLING SERVICES INFLATION TO OFFSET THE TARIFF BOOST
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Softer than feared services offset by global price pressures, further inflation acceleration lies ahead.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Seasonally adjusted house prices rise in December to cap a strong year, but house-price inflation will be even stronger in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The core CPI-PCE inflation gap likely increased to 0.7pp in January; the relatively big gap will last.
- Tariffs and rising auto insurance premiums will boost the CPI more than the PCE deflator.
- Existing home sales probably dropped in January, marking the start of a sharp fall in Q1 overall.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexican retail sales stagnated in Q4, with high inflation and weak remittances dampening consumption.
- The labour market remains resilient, but weak job creation signals risks to economic momentum.
- Peru’s growth momentum slowed in December, but the outlook is positive, assuming no tariffs.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- President Xi’s meeting with tech executives on Monday was important for symbolism and policy.
- But it won’t magically solve the macro challenges of sagging profits and weak demand.
- Rapid AI adoption is disruptive for hiring demand; skills mismatches will weigh on the labour market.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Isabel Schnabel has added fuel to the idea that the ECB’s easing cycle will end soon; we agree.
- President Trump’s latest tariff threat—on cars, chips and drugs—would have a small impact on EZ GDP.
- The CDU/CSU will win the German election, but not by enough for a majority; brace for coalition talks.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Firms are adjusting to payroll-tax hikes across several dimensions, rather than just slashing employment.
- More firms say they will raise prices than cut employment in response to increased NICs.
- Accordingly, we think the weakest surveys of job growth are exaggerating the employment slowdown.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Patience is a virtue, in this climate.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Patience is a virtue, in this climate.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
China's residential price decline steady in holiday season
Japan's real export growth less impressive than headline
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Encouraging, but far from definitive.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: The jobs market holds up better than expected, generating strong wage growth that will keep the MPC cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Average temperatures and snow cover were in line with seasonal norms last week, unlike in January.
- Homebase data point to weak February payrolls, but they have become a poor guide; wait for better data.
- Expect a low claims print today, but this week’s bad weather and DOGE job cuts will boost claims soon.
Samuel TombsUS
- Bank Indonesia held its policy rate at 5.75%, hitting pause again after January’s surprise rate cut…
- …We’re sticking to our above-consensus 100bp 2025 easing call, with inflation set to cool further.
- Mr. Prabowo’s ‘austerity’ leaves the ball more in BI’s court too, even if this drive doesn’t fully materialise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s local governments have begun using special- bond funds to stabilise the residential market.
- But in some cases it’s more a matter of moving money from the left pocket to the right pocket.
- More property-policy tweaking is likely during next month’s Two Sessions; gradual progress in prospect.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
