- Singapore’s NODX collapsed into the red in May; momentum was fading, front-running has peaked.
- The extent of the resurgence in oil prices, for now, remains no threat to India’s low-inflation climate…
- …Trade data suggest stockpiling when oil prices were falling, but this activity eased markedly in May.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoJ left policy rates unchanged in June, while scaling back its tapering of bond-buying next year…
- …Likely due to bond-market volatility, the stalemate in trade negotiations and tensions in the Middle East.
- We expect the Bank to continue pausing its rate-hiking cycle in the near term as Japan’s economy weakens.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Inflation in the EZ will settle at 2.0% over the summer, with the core also hitting 2% by August…
- …This should be enough for a final 25bp ECB rate cut in September, to 1.75%, setting up hikes next year.
- We’re lowering our inflation forecasts for 2026, but we’re still well above the ECB’s June projections.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Official house price inflation will slow in April as stamp-duty disruption feeds through.
- The slowdown will be short-lived, with forward-looking activity indicators improving in May.
- We retain our call for house prices to rise 4.5% year-over-year in 2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Led by an overdue correction in oil imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: No material change—yet—to the outlook for continued fuel & power deflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
China's investment and industrial output data point to slowing growth, despite the bright retail sales reading
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Employment growth eases according to the REC, but the worst of the jobs slowdown appears over.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:GDP falls in April but it will rebound as tax-hike-induced effects fade.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Tariff-front running boost to industry and trade fading in early Q2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Energy and services pull headline down.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stable, in line with advance release.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
March pop in Indonesian sales evaporates completely, as expected
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
More to the uptick in claims than residual seasonality.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The median FOMC member this week probably will envisage easing by just 25bp this year...
- ...But the case for expecting more easing remains robust; signs of labor market weakness are growing.
- The $10pb rise in oil prices will lift the CPI by 0.2%, likely dulling Mr. Trump’s appetite for more tariffs.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Sticky services and volatile food prices cloud Banxico’s outlook, despite weaker domestic demand.
- Disinflation will resume soon, allowing Banxico to proceed with gradual rate cuts.
- Brazil’s economic growth is slowing in Q2, as agriculture normalises and tight financial conditions bite.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The SNB is sure to ease this Thursday, and more analysts have joined us in expecting a sub-zero rate.
- Strength in EURUSD is supported by leading indicators, but the recent rally will fade soon.
- Disinflation in core goods from EURUSD at 1.15 is trivial, despite the ECB’s stringent forecast rules.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Five-year household inflation expectations hit a record high in May, adjusting for a break in the BoE’s survey.
- Inflation expectations have surged more since August 2024 than past behaviour would have signalled.
- Elevated inflation expectations mean the MPC cannot simply ‘look through’ above-target inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
