Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February.
- Services inflation should hold at 4.3%, as the early-Easter airfares boost is offset by weaker hotel prices.
- Lower oil prices mean we are close to removing our call for the MPC to hike Bank Rate once this year.
Sales going nowhere fast.
- US - The fading tariff hit will overwhelm oil’s impact on core inflation
- EUROZONE - Energy shock’s hit to growth in Spain and Italy will mainly start from Q2
- UK - GDP likely trending up before the war in Iran
- CHINA+ - Iran war hits China via trade channel, but with limited impact
- EM ASIA - Vietnam’s solid Q1 GDP may be as good as it gets in 2026
- LATAM - Chile’s growth stalling, but BCCh is stuck on hold
- The 0.1% rise in the March core PPI masked heat in components which feed into the core PCE deflator...
- ...But inflation still look set to fall in H2 as the uplift from tariffs fades, offsetting the energy price boost.
- The fall in the capex intentions index of the NFIB survey to a post-GFC low is most likely noise.
- Colombia’s fiscal anchor has gone, as deficits, rising debt and weak revenues undermine credibility.
- Inflation pressures are persistent and broader, forcing BanRep to tighten despite growth already softening.
- COP resilience looks fragile, with markets likely to drive a correction via interest rates and FX.
- Germany is cutting fuel duty, which will likely shave 0.3pp off inflation in April and May.
- EZ house-price growth will slow this year, but which countries will drive the slowdown?…
- …Slowing house-price growth is a downside risk to consumers’ spending, but less so than pre-Covid.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February.
- Rocketing motor-fuel prices account for almost all of the increase in inflation.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 3.5% in September, from 3.7% previously, as oil prices have fallen back.
In one line: Private sector credit showing early but uneven improvement
- The data available so far point to GDP growth a bit below 2% in the first quarter.
- Consumption was soft and net trade was a big drag, but government spending rebounded.
- Residual seasonality probably explains only a fraction of the slow underlying momentum last quarter.
- The shock from Camisea disruption and higher oil prices drives broad-based inflation pressures in Peru.
- The core inflation spike signals wider cost pressures, raising risks of persistence and second-round effects.
- The BCRP is likely to stay on hold, but risks are now tilted towards tightening sooner than expected.
- China’s March credit data, albeit soft overall, points to a tentative private credit revival in select areas.
- Rising pre-existing home sales likely drove mortgage demand; bottoming out is happening albeit slowly.
- Policy-driven infrastructure investment probably supported improving underlying corporate credit.
- In Q1, the Winter Olympics and fiscal support soften the hit to Italian consumption from the energy shock.
- EU recovery funds will help support Italian GDP growth this year as domestic demand slows.
- We lower our forecast for EZ GDP growth in Q1 and Q2, by 0.1pp in each quarter, to 0.2%.
- Borrowing costs have jumped since our last gilt market update, as the Iran war boosts inflation fears.
- We think yields have overshot fair pricing and will fall, although more so at the short than long end.
- Higher-for-longer oil prices and rising political risk mean the curve will steepen in 2026.
HOUSE PRICES UNCHANGED IN JANUARY...
- ...BUT WAR IN IRAN WILL HIT SENTIMENT HARD IN 2026
Further reason to expect a consumer slowdown.
Soft core increase shows domestically-generated inflation in check.
- In one line: Soft core increase shows domestically-generated inflation in check.
In one line: Industrial production likely fell over Q1.
In one line: Lifted by soaring energy inflation, but the core and food will rise too in due course.
- A record jump in gas prices hugely boosted the CPI in March; expect a further 0.2pp hit in April.
- The core CPI likely will be lifted in April by a rebound in used auto prices and a catch-up increase in rents...
- ...But the fading tariff boost and slowing rent rises will drag down inflation in H2, despite higher oil prices.
