Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Early May sample period leaves confidence looking too rosy.
- In one line: Sharp output downturn leaves MPC more likely to hold in July.
- In one line: Inflation scotches a June hike, but most of the downside surprise was in erratic components that will rebound.
- In one line: In one line: Sharp payrolls fall will be revised much stronger, but with wages weakening too the MPC will stay on hold in June.
- In one line: A welcome bounce, as war risks continue to recede.
- In one line: A welcome bounce, as war risks continue to recede.
In one line: Poor, but risks are tilted towards an upward revision.
Clearer signs of precautionary stockpilling.
- In one line: Headline still normalising; April consumption shows war squeeze.
In one line: BoJ won't be swayed by Tokyo inflation dip
Commodity-price surge is piling pressure on the peso
- We look for a 50K increase in May payrolls; the most reliable survey indicators have remained weak.
- After two straight above-consensus readings, pay- rolls surprise to the downside two-thirds of the time.
- The weather-related boost to April payrolls will un- wind; expect a drag from strikes and insolvencies too.
- Broad-based Q1 growth highlights resilient domestic demand in Brazil, despite a high Selic rate.
- Fiscal and credit support are cushioning activity, though underlying capex is less convincing.
- Persistent inflation pressures will likely keep the BCB cautious and slow the easing cycle.
- Thailand’s new co-payment stimulus starts today; we’ve nudged up our 2026 GDP call, to 2.3%…
- …The job market’s revival is a genuine tailwind, though its current form suggests some fragility.
- Philippines’ trade deficit ballooned unexpectedly in April, with commodity prices flattering imports.
- The new BoK Governor, Mr. Shin, is signalling a rate hike, likely as soon as July, worried about financial risks.
- Korea’s resurgent semiconductor exports out weigh the growth risk from higher energy costs.
- The BoJ is likely to raise the policy rate on June 16, despite Tokyo inflation slowing in May.
- Eurozone inflation likely rose further in May, by 0.2pp to 3.2%, as core inflation rebounded.
- Inflation in Germany, France and Spain surprised to the downside, but Italy was a punchy upside surprise.
- Italian Q1 growth was revised up, but we still look for a sharp slowdown in Q2 as consumption slows.
- The activity data has softened slightly over the past month, with the PMI dropping and payrolls tanking...
- ...Though surveys overreact to political noise, and we expect April payrolls to be revised up sharply.
- Still, a sharp drop in oil prices means we expect just one hike from the MPC, with risks skewed to no hikes.
GROWTH WOBBLES WHILE INFLATION JUMPS...
- …THE MPC WILL HOLD RATES AS LONG AS IT CAN
Weak sales likely to prompt a further drop in starts.
Recent increases in consumption look unsustainable.
