Pantheon Publications

4 March 2025 Eurozone Monitor ECB hawks have a strong case for arguing this week's cut is the last

• The ECB will cut its policy rates by 25bp, but the argument for further easing is now much tougher. 
• February inflation data mean the ECB’s forecast for Q2 inflation at 2.1% is now a Hail Mary. 
• ECB doves will focus on downside risks to growth and employment from tariffs; they have a point.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 March 2025 UK Monitor Consumers are spending, but uncertainty hits investment hard

• The rise in credit-card borrowing in January points to consumers recovering from October Budget wobbles.
• Increasing mortgage approvals for house purchase signal a broad-based revival in buyer interest.
• But falling finance raised suggests business investment has been hit hard by uncertainty.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, February

Post-holiday activity rebound, but firms still wary ahead of the Two Sessions and tariff hikes

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Official Non-Manufacturing PMI, China, February

 Construction activity rebound looks mainly seasonal; too soon to say if a real infrastructure push is coming

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, February

Outlook still gloomy, after sifting through the holiday data distortions

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, January

Net trade set to drag heavily on growth amid a pre-tariff surge in imports.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

EM Asia Datanote: Core Industries, India, January

• In one line: Offsetting base effects all over the place; momentum is solid, otherwise.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: GDP, India, Q4

• In one line: A trade- and consumption-driven bounce; the economy is still operating below potential.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, February 2025

In one line: Consistent with a below-consensus EZ print on Monday.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, January, 2025

• In one line: Retail sector remains strong, while industrial sector struggles in January.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

EZ Datanote: ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations, EZ, January & Unemployment, Germany, February

In one line: EZ inflation expectations ease back; further increases in German unemployment are on the way.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, February

In one line: Consistent with the national CPI undershooting the consensus.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, December

• In one line: Finally, back down to earth.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PM Datanote: Advance Inflation & INSEE Consumers' Spending, France, Feb/Jan

In one line: Inflation pulled lower by energy, but the core softened too; setback in spending after a strong finish to 2024.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, February 2025

• In one line: House prices rise again in February, but watch for a slowdown after April.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, January 2025

In one line: On track for a slowdown in Q1. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, February

Tokyo headline inflation slows as energy subsidies restart; BoJ to stick to policy normalisation path

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 28 February 2025: Tokyo inflation slows on energy subsidies

Tokyo headline inflation slows as energy subsidies restart; BoJ to stick to policy normalisation path

Duncan WrigleyChina+

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 28 February 2025

A surprisingly fast start to 2025 for Philippine trade

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

February 2025 - U.K. Housing Watch

THE HOUSING MARKET REMAINS ROBUST...

• ...AND PRICES WILL RISE BY 4% IN 2025

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK