- Indonesian growth fell to 4.9% in Q1, as base effects hit public spending and construction flat-lined…
- …Machinery capex should come under more pressure soon, with Chinese import demand cratering.
- We have cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast slightly, to 4.9% from 5.0%, and still see 100bp in BI cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Uncertainty hammered the PMI in April, suggesting a chance that UK GDP will fall in Q2.
- The MPC will retain some caution, however, as the PMI shows underlying inflation accelerating.
- Rate-setters can get away with a couple of precautionary rate cuts in May and June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The 20% drop in oil prices since early April probably will provide no real boost to the overall economy...
- ...the lift to consumers’ real incomes will be offset by weaker spending in energy-intensive areas.
- The ISM services prices index jumped in April, but other survey indicators suggest no cause for alarm.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Behind-the-scenes diplomacy has set the stage for Sino-US trade dialogue.
- We expect the bilateral relationship to thaw as internal pressure forces both to the negotiating table.
- Korea fast-tracks US trade talks as tariffs weaken exports and drive industrial activity to a 31-month low.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Indonesian CPI came in above expectations in April, mainly reflecting the end of power discounts.
- The consensus for the Philippines’ Q1 GDP is well-positioned; we expect a similar-ish 5.8% print.
- The MAS is likely to ease policy further in July, but October could be more 50-50.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Jump in April core inflation was due to Easter effects in services; the remaining components were soft.
- Dovish forecasts from the ECB will pave the way for for a back-to-back 25bp rate cut next month…
- …and we now look for an additional 25bp cut in July, but also hikes next year, in June and September.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Q1 ends on a strong note, but growth set to slow.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Q1 ends on a strong note, but growth set to slow.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Consistent with slower growth in Q2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Inflation held steady, but declines are coming; we are adding a July ECB rate cut.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Inflation held steady, but declines are coming; we are adding a July ECB rate cut.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Electricity discounts are now well and truly a thing of the past.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Indonesia’s electricity discounts are now well and truly a thing of the past
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Headline index steady in April; but a lot of pain lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Colombia’s central bank resumes its cautious easing cycle amid fragile growth and persistent inflation risks.
- BanRep balances disinflation momentum with fiscal slippage and intensifying external noise.
- Uncoordinated policy signals undermine credibility as Colombia faces deteriorating fundamentals.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
Households stunned by the tariff shock.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Trade and inventories data leave a negative Q1 GDP print looking far more likely.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
