- China’s marked fall in exports in March highlights the need to boost domestic demand.
- After factoring out base effects and seasonality, exports are probably enjoying a modest rebound.
- The equipment & consumer goods trade -in schemes should be significant, despite slow policymaking.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Our preliminary forecasts for France and Germany point to downside risks to EZ core inflation in April.
- A VAT hike on gas in Germany and higher oil prices are near-term upside risks to energy inflation.
- Italy will struggle to shrink its budget deficit to 3% any time soon; will the EU take note?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We raise our growth forecast, and now expect a 0.4% quarter-to-quarter GDP gain in Q1.
- Returning growth won’t stop the MPC cutting rates but will keep it to a one-cut-per-quarter pace.
- The MPC switching to scenarios, from fan charts, post Bernanke Review likely matters little to markets.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Goods disinflation continues; margins and other services still sticky.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
In one line: The ECB will cut in June, barring a significant shift in its Q2 forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The ECB will cut in June, barring a significant shift in its Q2 forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Generous seasonals still depressing claims, but an uptrend is coming.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: A dovish hold—as expected—with a clear signal of a June cut.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Daily Monitor
In one line: A dovish hold—as expected—with a clear signal of a June cut.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Industry was a bigger drag on Italian Q1 GDP than we previously thought.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Building hopes of rate cuts boost buyer demand and house prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
China consumer prices slow as producer deflation deepens
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Producer price deflation deepens further, thanks to excess capacity
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Base effects are masking lacklustre momentum in Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Some downside growth risks recognized, but attention still mostly on inflation
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- China’s inflation data point to lacklustre domestic demand post-New Year, while supply rose.
- Core CPI dropped sharply to half its long-run average; industry is still facing deflationary pressure.
- The US economy is steaming ahead, giving the PBoC
a dilemma: lower rates or keep RMB stable.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- March CPI and PPI data point to a 0.3% rise in the core PCE deflator, with an outside chance of a 0.2% print.
- Personal tax refunds so far in 2024 are little changed compared to last year, but that could still change.
- Higher gas prices probably mean a small fall in the Michigan sentiment survey from its recent highs.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s March inflation data clear a path for solid monetary easing by the COPOM in May…
- …But robust private consumption could mean the BCB adopts a more measured stance in H2.
- Retail sales rebounded sharply in Q1 amid improving credit conditions; will this trend continue?
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The ECB stood pat yesterday but sent a clear signal of a first rate cut at its next meeting, on June 6.
- We expect the Bank to cut rates by 25bp in June, and at each of the next three meetings.
- Markets have pared back expectations of ECB cuts after the hot US CPI data; that is a mistake.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- UK interest rates have followed the US in most major cycles since the mid-1970s.
- Exceptions to this when the economies have diverged mean the MPC can cut rates in June as inflation slows.
- The MPC will be cautious about the pace of cuts, given sticky services inflation and to avoid GBP falling.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
