Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Happy days as growth improves and inflation slows; the MPC could welcome the news with another cut in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Rebounding employment expectations suggest inflation pressure will remain stubborn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: June’s downward revisions to the PMI’s sub-indices were likely driven by oil prices, sentiment will continue to improve.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Falling saving flows and rising corporate borrowing point to solid economic growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices fall in June but returning buyer demand will push up prices soon.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Better balanced growth after revisions bodes well.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
HOUSE PRICES COLLAPSE IN APRIL...
- ...BUT THE RECOVERY IS ALREADY UNDERWAY
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- June private payrolls ex-education and healthcare rose just 23K; revisions will reveal an even weaker picture.
- Hiring intentions remain depressed; new tax breaks are unlikely to offset tariff costs and uncertainty soon.
- The drop in unemployment looks like noise; payroll growth will undershoot the break-even rate in H2.
Samuel TombsUS
- Durable and capital goods output fell sharply in Brazil, highlighting weakness in domestic demand.
- Business sentiment and PMIs deteriorated further in June, indicating weaker output in coming quarters.
- Stable inflation and anchored expectations give BCRP room to stay neutral amid external volatility.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Thai household debt has shrunk for the first time in over 20 years, but its ratio to GDP is still very high…
- …Consumer NPLs resumed their rise in Q1 after a Q4 stall; bad initial news for “You Fight, We Help”.
- Philippine inflation inched up in June; the low-CPI environment is yet to lift confidence meaningfully.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Chinese policymakers are seemingly rethinking policy to rein in unbridled competition, after prior false starts.
- The key is political will—and a plan—to overcome vested interests, both local governments’ and firms’.
- Getting it right should lead to firmer pricing, stronger profits and less wasted capital investment.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tariffs will likely dominate this week; will Mr. Trump stick or twist in the negotiations with the EU?
- The near-term outlook for German manufacturing is better than what is implied by factory orders in May.
- EZ industrial production likely fell in May, reversing the jump in late Q1, ahead of US tariffs.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A range of soft and hard data last week supported our call that the economy is rebounding from a soft patch.
- Fading uncertainty, and recovery after payback from tariff and tax front-running, help growth improve.
- The DMP shows the pace of disinflation easing too, so we still look for only one more rate cut this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
A big jump in services inflation still looks unlikely.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Back above zero, but unlikely to stay there for long.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Back above zero, but unlikely to stay there for long.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Implausible sector breakdown highlights ADP's uselessness.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Manufacturing slumps as mining props up output.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The HKMA intervened again on Wednesday to defend the currency peg, which has been in place since 1983.
- The LERS is a double-edged sword: Hong Kong loses monetary policy freedom but gains stability.
- Any talk of re-pegging the HKD is premature; China and HKSAR are not yet an Optimal Currency Area.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Headline inflation in Switzerland rose above zero in June, by 0.2pp to 0.1%.
- It will fall back again in July, to zero, where we expect it to hold steady until Q4.
- Our forecasts remain well below the SNB’s; another rate cut in September, to -0.25%, is still likely.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
