- The range of economic outcomes in the Eurozone is widening; be ready for whiplash in the surveys.
- High-stakes negotiations between the EU and the US in Q2, on tariffs, Ukraine, NATO and Greenland.
- Mixed economic data in Germany; is industrial production finally rebounding?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Raising UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP will have little effect on growth or the Bank of England.
- We expect the government eventually to go further, raising defence spending to at least 3.0% of GDP.
- The resulting higher neutral rate means we see Bank Rate at 4.0% by end-2026, up from 3.75% previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
A snapshot of a prior age, before the shift in federal government policies undermined confidence.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Core pressures subdued as demand cools.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Core pressures subdued as demand cools.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Disinflation resumes as temporary shocks subside.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Disinflation resumes as temporary shocks subside.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Revised up thanks to a solid showing from domestic demand.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stung by plunge in major orders; core orders should rise in coming months.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Dragged down by transportation and communication base effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Philippine sales growth remains sturdy, but the remittance lift should soon reverse
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The US tariff delay brings temporary relief, but uncertainty looms beyond April; capex will still be hurt.
- Brazil’s real GDP slowed sharply in Q4, due to falling private consumption and softening capex.
- H1 will be better, at face value, thanks to robust agricultural output and government stimulus.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The low rate of Philippine unemployment has been range-bound for over a year, but red flags are rising.
- The respectable rate of sales growth could soon turn, as the PHP boost to remittances fades away.
- The February slip in Thai inflation was a base-effect story, but sub-1% prints are still around the corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Domestic demand drove growth in the Eurozone in the second half of 2024; can it continue?
- Inventories and net trade will be important swing factors for growth in the first half of 2025.
- Our new forecasts put us well above the ECB; trade policy uncertainty is the dark horse.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
