Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Only a small fraction of the big downward benchmark revision to payrolls is due to the birth-death model.
- The sectoral mix of the revision implies benchmarking is removing only a few unauthorized workers.
- The main problem—still unresolved—is the BLS is not obtaining a representative sample of firms.
- Banxico delivered another rate cut, but firmer inflation and guidance point to pauses ahead.
- Sticky services inflation and fiscal changes narrow the Bank’s space to ease heading into early 2026.
- The weakness of growth supports cuts, yet external risks and credibility worries limit the options.
- Taiwan’s CBC held rates steady last week; strong growth has removed the need for easing…
- …Still, growth is increasingly precarious, with exports—and GDP—heavily reliant on the AI boom.
- The silver lining is the CBC can now save a rate cut for when a genuine shock materialises.
- The BoJ raised the policy rate by 25bp to 0.75% on Friday, surprising no one after earlier signalling.
- Governor Ueda struck a neutral tone when addressing the prospect of further rate hikes.
- Sluggish non-unionised wage rises and fragile growth will likely limit the BoJ to only one rate hike in 2026.
- Germany’s IFO BCI fell again in December and points to downside risks to our Q4 call.
- France’s INSEE & Italy’s ISTAT surveys, meanwhile, rose implying a pick up in activity at year-end.
- The Eurozone’s construction sector is likely to have come out of recession in Q4.
- The MPC squeezed in a fourth rate cut for 2025 in response to weak wage, growth and inflation data.
- But rate-setters suggested limited room for more cuts, surprising the market hawkishly.
- We expect one more cut in April now, but that could easily be knocked off course by stubborn wages.
- In one line: No rate cut needed.
- In one line: No rate cut needed.
In one line: EZ construction likely escaped recession in Q4.
In one line: Strong but can we trust it?
In one line: Revised down, the ECB will still stand pat tomorrow.
In one line: Revised down, the ECB will still stand pat tomorrow.
- Measurement issues depressed November goods prices, airline fares, rent and auto insurance....
- ...We see no evidence of a slowing in the trend in core-core services prices yet.
- But the outlook looks benign; tariffs are now mostly passed through, while wages and rents are slowing.
- Faster disinflation and anchored expectations allow a cautious rate cut in Chile, after two straight holds…
- …Improving global conditions, firmer copper prices and resilient activity support Chile’s macro outlook.
- Growth is resilient in Argentina, as exports strengthen and fiscal discipline anchors stability.
- The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.00% for the third straight meeting yesterday, as widely expected.
- Its new forecasts, showing growth at potential and inflation at target, suggest no further easing.
- The next rate move will likely be up, in 2027; we see two 25bp hikes, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%.
- The MPC reduced Bank Rate by 25bp to 3.75% in a widely expected five-to-four vote yesterday.
- But the meeting minutes were guarded, and Governor Bailey struck a hawkish tone on the pace of pay gains.
- We remain comfortable with our call for just one more cut to Bank Rate in 2026; it will be closely fought.
In one line: Down, mirroring fall in PMI.
- In one line: Look for a change in strategy—to RRR cuts—next year.
- In one line: Look for a change in strategy—to RRR cuts—next year.
- In one line: Expect a quick follow-up cut in February.
