- US - Markets drew the wrong conclusions from June’s labor market data
- EUROZONE - No changes to our forecasts yet, despite delay to US tariff-rate hikes
- UK - Between a rock and a hard place sits fudging the fiscal rules
- CHINA+ - Japan’s wages hit by plunging bonuses, as trade war bites
- EM ASIA - Vietnamese growth to come off the boil in H2 if GDP data turn realistic
- LATAM - Brazil’s manufacturing slumps, but mining shows resilience
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Chile’s CPI drop strengthens the case for a July rate cut, as disinflation in key categories gains traction.
- Fading shocks and a stronger CLP support disinflation; BCCh signals rates are moving towards neutral.
- Colombia’s inflation has fallen below 5%, but sticky services and fiscal noise keep BanRep cautious.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Another month of exports above 30% in Taiwan, as they fail to moderate despite our expectation.
- This will be good news for Q2 GDP year-over-year, which is highly correlated with exports.
- Food and housing costs are finally down consistently, helping to keep inflation below 2%.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- Net exports warn of a downside surprise in German Q2 GDP; we look for zero growth.
- Manufacturing and services are upside risks to Q2 growth in Germany; construction was a drag.
- The upturn in real M1 growth points to accelerating German GDP growth from early 2026 onwards.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect CPI inflation to nudge up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in April, driven by food prices.
- An earlier CPI collection date than our assumption of June 17 would pose downside risk…
- …Clothes and hotel prices likely strengthened later in the month as temperatures rose.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Another big increase, before the recent delay in tariff hikes.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Mexico’s private consumption showed resilience in early Q2, but high interest rates weigh heavily.
- Capex continues to fall sharply amid trade-policy uncertainty and low business confidence.
- External demand remains the main support for growth, as domestic momentum weakens further.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- GDP growth in Vietnam jumped to 8.0% in Q2 from 7.1% in Q1, comfortably outstripping all forecasts…
- …But brisk export front-loading to the US will unwind shortly, especially with a ‘deal’ now in place.
- We have raised our 2025 GDP forecast to 6.9%, implying an H2 slowdown to an average of 6.4%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The looming deadline for the increase in “reciprocal” tariffs has been delayed again, now to August 1.
- The upside surprise in German industrial output in May points to a better EZ print than we expected.
- EZ services had a rough start to Q2, but surveys have improved and point to a better Q2 than Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect May’s monthly payroll fall to be revised up by 77K, and June’s first estimate to show a 15K drop.
- Payrolls have gone haywire, while leading indicators suggest job growth is improving.
- Private ex-bonus AWE should rise 0.5% month-to-month as pay growth slows only gradually.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Still improving, and surveys point to a strong finish to Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
A few more months of modest Thai deflation on the cards
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Rising car registrations signals recovering underlying economic activity.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The Construction PMI will continue to recover as tariff uncertainty fades and Government investment soars.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Another bleak construction PMI read.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Q2 was a quarter to forget in French manufacturing; Spain is looking better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Poor, but falling turnover at odds with the surveys.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
