Pointing to a sharp fall in new home sales & residential construction.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Recent resilience unlikely to last beyond the summer.
Samuel TombsUS
Pointing to a mere 0.12% rise in the core PCE deflator, and margin pressure for distributors.
Samuel TombsUS
Further weakness probably lies in store.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: A new record high, thanks to tariff front-running by US firms.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Don’t panic about the continued ballooning of India’s trade deficit
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Solid start to the year, but risks loom.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Banxico cuts again but strikes a cautious tone.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- Banxico cut rates again, but its tone was more cautious due to the recent uptick in Mexico’s inflation.
- Economic activity is weak, and inflation is within the target range, supporting the case for further easing.
- Argentina’s inflation slowed sharply in April, defying expectations after the FX liberalisation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- VND underperformance could look bad amid ongoing US trade talks, but the SBV’s hands are tied.
- Talk of a ‘crisis’ in Thai tourism is overblown; yes, Q1 was grim, but other big markets are struggling too.
- Singapore export growth easily beat expectations in April, though underlying trends are softening.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s GDP shrank more than the market expected in Q1, and for the first time in a year.
- Weak services exports were to blame; consumption was hit by fragile confidence and high inflation.
- The BoJ will hold rate s for the time being, as it mulls the outcome of talks and assesses its effects.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- We look for broad-based strength in the surveys for May, but we think it will be temporary.
- The Eurozone’s trade surplus soared in Q1, boosted by tariff front-running in pharmaceuticals.
- The EZ runs a deficit with the US in services, but a surplus if intellectual property is excluded.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Strong underlying growth momentum and President Trump’s backtracking on tariffs boost our forecasts.
- We boost our growth forecasts to 1.1% and 1.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, each up 0.2pp..
- We see risks to the consensus, and the MPC’s forecast, for April CPI skewed heavily upwards.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Small boost from tariff-front running, which likely continued as President Trump pushed back reciprocal tariffs by 90-days.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Fading consumer caution will keep GDP ticking along.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail finishes Q1 strongly, but headwinds still limit momentum.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Industry supported EZ GDP in Q1, as did the labour market.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The core remains soft, but surveys point to upside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A strong first quarter for the Swiss economy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
