- Brazil —US tariffs rattle the outlook
- Mexico — Tariffs test Ms. Sheinbaum’s resolve
- Chile — Bracing for copper tariffs
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Surprise, surprise… at least two more 25bp cuts to come by year-end.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Surprise, surprise… at least two more 25bp cuts to come by year-end.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The June rise in core goods prices, ex-autos, was the biggest in three years; import-sensitive prices leapt...
...But only a quarter of the tariff costs has come through so far; expect even bigger price rises in July.
CPI services inflation will continue to cool, but it will offset only about half the pick-up in goods inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
A knock-out punch to the tariff inflation deniers.
Samuel TombsUS
- US - Immigration probably will continue to add meaningfully to labor supply
- EUROZONE - A 30% US tariff would send the EZ economy into recession in H2
- UK - Consumer spending to be supported by solid income growth
- CHINA+ - China’s ‘glass half-full’ money and credit data
- EM ASIA - BNM more worried about GDP growth than we expectedEM ASIA -
- LATAM - Brazil’s recovery stalls as financial and external headwinds mount
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Disinflation is accelerating in Argentina, with headline and core prices reaching multi-year lows in June.
- Tight fiscal and monetary policy continue to anchor expectations, despite the ARS and political noise.
- BCRP held at 4.5%, signalling caution amid global uncertainty and anchored inflation expectations.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- India’s two main inflation gauges were very soft in June, with food prices now deflating at all levels…
- …Food deflation at the retail level will likely persist until the end of 2025, due in part to base effects.
- We have downgraded our average CPI forecasts for this year and next to 2.5% and 4.9%, respectively.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Industrial production in the Eurozone slowed in Q2 after a breakneck Q1; what awaits in Q3?
- Leading indicators for manufacturing are mixed; the output PMI has been the best so far this year.
- A reversal of tariff front-running will weigh on output in H2, regardless of what tariffs the EU ends up with.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ONS BICS survey is timely, samples seven times more firms than the PMI and covers all the economy.
- The BICS survey suggests stickier services inflation than the PMI and a stronger job recovery since April.
- US tariffs are having a small impact on the UK economy, with 78% of firms unaffected.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Solid rebound, even factoring-in jump in Ireland.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China's steadyish Q2 real GDP growth boosted by intensifying deflation; nominal growth lowest since Q4 2022
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Outright food deflation is here, as predicted.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Outright food deflation is here, as predicted.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
