Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: Falling imports boost surplus.
Q3 is shaping up to be fairly decent for Indonesian retail sales
In one line: Korea’s headline export surge masks WDA slump; Strong chip demand still underpins outlook.
In one line: China’s FX reserves edge higher, supported by portfolio inflows and persistently strong trade surplus.
In one line: Korea’s headline export surge masks WDA slump; Strong chip demand still underpins outlook.
In one line: Fimer Tankan readings pave way for BoJ policy normalisation in October.
In one line: Korean manufacturing activity surged in September on stronger orders and output.
- September’s payroll report likely will be released about three working days after the shutdown ends.
- October payrolls will be unaffected by the shutdown, but the unemployment rate will be lifted by 0.2pp.
- The rotation of the regional Fed voters implies a slight hawkish shift in the FOMC early next year.
- Brazil’s disinflation is continuing amid an electricity tariff shock and strong currency support.
- Mexico’s inflation is steady in late Q3, pressured by services despite softening in goods inflation.
- Central banks will tread cautiously, balancing rate cuts with sticky core inflation and economic growth.
- The BSP surprised yesterday with another 25bp cut to its policy rate, as it rejigged its growth views…
- …But the weakness in business confidence has been in play for a while; we now see two more cuts.
- Indonesian retail sales growth is starting to revive more noticeably, but headwinds are intensifying.
- German auto output rebounded in September, but will this be included in the first Q3 GDP estimate?
- Construction investment rose in Q3, but net trade and consumption likely remained sluggish.
- We now think the first Q3 GDP estimate in Germany will show that output fell by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- We expect the OBR to lower potential GDP growth by 0.1pp per year in the November Budget forecasts.
- Only a small downgrade is needed after payroll-based productivity growth far exceeded OBR forecasts.
- The fiscal watchdog should also avoid becoming unduly pessimistic about a hard-to-forecast variable.
- In one line: Expect this to be a temporary pause from the new Governor and Co.
- In one line: Expect this to be a temporary pause from the new Governor and Co.
In one line: Ugly, but stung by one-off distortions.
In one line: Japan's wage growth slows again, with bonuses hit by tourism weakness
- AI capex—net of tech imports—lifted H1 GDP growth by an annualized rate of around 0.3pp.
- The boost to spending due to the wealth effect from surging tech stocks likely has been similar.
- That suggests to us that weaker growth is more likely than a recession if the AI boom turns to bust.
- Brazil — Rally on easing inflation
- Mexico — From record peaks to profit-taking
- Chile — Market consolidates after regional volatility
- The BoT surprised the widespread consensus yesterday by holding the policy rate at 1.50%.
- The export U-turn is here, and the MPC sounds too nonchalant over domestic demand and inflation…
- …We reiterate our 1.00% terminal rate forecast, implying 25bp cuts in December and in Q1.
- Japan’s real household spending continued to rise in August, despite falling real incomes.
- Nominal wages took a hit, as bonuses plunged, notably in tourism-related sectors and manufacturing.
- The BoJ will be looking for clues about 2026 wage growth, but is also wary of recent JPY weakness.
