Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Korea’s early export data remains sturdy on WDA basis amid US trade uncertainty
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan’s exports slip unexpectedly in June, raising risk of a technical recession
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- We estimate the core PCE deflator rose by 0.26% in July; most relevant PPI components rose modestly.
- The rise in distributors’ margins in the PPI is implausible, given surging tariff revenues and CPI data.
- We think hopes for a near-term “reshoring boost” to manufacturing look misplaced.
Samuel TombsUS
- Retail sales declined sharply in Brazil, with credit-sensitive segments under the most pressure.
- Services held firm up until June, but PMI data now point to a weakening trend.
- Consumer sentiment is fragile, and high interest rates continue to weigh on household spending.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The slowdown in EZ GDP growth in Q2 was confirmed, mainly due to weakness in industry.
- Industry will likely be a bigger drag on GDP in Q3, and the strength in construction will not continue.
- The labour market continues to support GDP growth; surveys suggest employment will stay solid.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP growth beat consensus expectations in June, rising by 0.4% month-to-month.
- Quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q2 was above the MPC’s latest forecast, 0.1%.
- The expenditure breakdown for GDP in H1 shows household spending growing at a healthy pace.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Sales stumble again as financial headwinds intensify.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The REC improves in July but signals the jobs market remains weak.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Stubborn wage and price pressure despite falling employment suggests a cautious MPC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: We’re comfortable assuming the MPC on hold for the rest of this year after hawkish guidance changes and vote.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Official retail sales will rise at a healthy clip in July.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A stabilising labour market and elevated pay growth constrain the MPC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Collapsing response rate casts doubt, but the backdrop looks weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Down, in line with the fall in the sentix.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We estimate that AI-linked investment lifted GDP growth in H1 2025 by about half a percentage point.
- The aggressive capex plans of the big tech firms suggest a similar boost in the coming quarters.
- July's PPI data likely will show that retailers’ and wholesalers’ margins are being squeezed by tariffs.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexico — Rally slows near resistance
- Argentina — Fragile rebound ahead of elections
- Chile — At record high, set for steady year-end gains
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China’s broad credit growth edged up in July, only thanks to rapid government-bond issuance.
- Credit demand elsewhere appears lacklustre, with net long-term corporate loan repayments.
- Subsidies for consumer and services firm loans are helpful but unlikely to be a game-changer.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Swiss GDP growth likely slowed sharply in Q2 from the 0.8% q/q read in Q1 led by tariff front-running.
- Hard data and surveys imply a print of around 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- Switzerland will enter recession in H2, even if “gold will not be tariffed!”.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for a 1.0% month-to-month rise in retail sales in July as surveys signal healthy consumer spending.
- Households appear confident and comfortable with their assets, so the saving rate should fall in H2.
- Rising inflation, falling jobs and fiscal worries remain risks to the outlook.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
