Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Japan’s core consumer inflation ticked up in April, due to the removal of energy subsidies for households.
- The BoJ will probably hold rates steady to help growth, amid tariff uncertainty, and despite elevated inflation.
- Soaring bond yields, partly due to political risks, may yet force the Bank to intervene.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- A sustained 50% tariff on EU exports to the US would send the EZ economy into recession.
- The route to an EU-US trade deal is relatively easy, but the EU will respond in kind to US tariff threats.
- The German economy was in rude health in Q1, but trade uncertainty will now weigh on growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Hard data defy weak sentiment, bumping up our Q2 growth forecast to 0.3% quarter-to-quarter…
- …The uncertainty shock has faded, and inflation will likely stay above 3.0% until next April.
- So, we expect the MPC to skip an August cut, lowering rates only once more in 2025, in November.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Economy robust in the face of tariff uncertainty for now.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Still impeded by high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.
Samuel TombsUS
Little changed from previous weeks, but weak hiring indicators point to a deterioration soon.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Mexico’s economy outperforms in Q1, but risks loomlarge.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Services downturn clouding manufacturing’s recovery.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Services downturn clouding manufacturing’s recovery.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Indian services push the Q2 recovery forward in May
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…
- …THE FED WILL START EASING IN Q3 AS PAYROLL GAINS SLOW
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: House prices jump in March as buyers rush to beat stamp duty, but we expect a partial unwind in the coming months.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Inflation should run around 3.5% for the rest of the year, although an Easter boost means the April headline exaggerates the strength a little.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Back in business; at least 75bp in more cuts to come this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Back in business; at least 75bp in more cuts to come this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The S&P composite PMI suggests underlying GDP growth is tracking around 2% for now...
- ...but the survey also points to much higher core goods inflation and pressures on services firms too.
- Markets rightly judge that the “Big Beautiful Bill” will boost debt issuance but do little to lift demand.
Samuel TombsUS
- An agricultural rebound drove headline GDP growth in Mexico in Q1, offsetting weakness elsewhere.
- Services and industrial output fell, suggesting the economy is heavily exposed to shocks.
- Persistent inflation, especially in services, complicates Banxico’s easing path amid deteriorating conditions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Our final forecast for India’s Q1 GDP report sees a dip to 6.0% from 6.2%, below the consensus, 6.7%…
- …The big boost from net trade in Q4 should vanish fully, offset partly by improved local private demand.
- The PMIs suggest the job market is rapidly heating up again, but we still see no hard data confirmation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s composite PMI dipped below 50 in May, led by rapidly slowing services and a drop in manufacturing.
- That said, US importers rushed to order goods ahead of the tariff reprieve expiring, offsetting falls in output.
- The BoJ will hold rates as it assesses the outcome of negotiations and their impact on the economy.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- A second straight fall in the EZ composite PMI in May points to downside risk for GDP in Q2.
- The INSEE and PMI suggest services are weakening, despite tight labour markets and little hit from tariffs.
- Inflation pressures are unwinding, so we are maintaining our call for further ECB easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
