Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- The BoJ is likely to persist with two more rate hikes this year, despite early warning signals about growth.
- Japanese business sentiment sank to its lowest since January 2021 in yesterday’s composite flash PMI.
- Broadening food inflation is likely to prop up consumer inflation, pointing towards the risk of stagflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The PMI rose a touch in March, and Q1, supporting our expectation for a pick-up in EZ GDP growth…
- ...But the PMI is likely to fall again in April, as higher- tariff announcements weigh on firms’ outlooks.
- Price pressures eased at the end of Q1, paving the way for another ECB rate cut.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Higher gilt yields and weaker-than-expected taxes wipe out the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom.
- Back-loaded welfare cuts and modest reductions to planned public spending can restore headroom.
- Gilt issuance will reach a post-pandemic high of £313B in 2025/26.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
THE ECONOMY IS SLOWING, NOT CRATERING…
- …CORE INFLATION TO STAY SUB-3%, ENABLING FED TO EASE
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: Easing political uncertainty didn’t lift spirits in March.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Trade uncertainty will continue to weigh on manufacturing sentiment and activity.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Weak public finances mean spending cuts in the Spring Statement, taxes will rise in October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Good fundamentals and bad news will continue to pull consumers’ confidence in opposing directions.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Overall confidence is improving, but still subdued.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Korean exports regain their vim after the holiday, led by semiconductor shipments
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan’s consumer inflation slows as energy subsidies kick in
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japan's inflation slows due to energy subsidies
Korea's 20-day WDA exports rebound led by chip exports, but the outlook is murky
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Improving aggregate household balance sheets last year masked a big rise in loan delinquencies.
- More people will miss loan payments as unemployment increases and student loan payments jump.
- The sharp fall in stock prices likely will weigh on the March flash estimate of the S&P composite PMI.
Samuel TombsUS
- Argentina’s economy enjoyed a solid end to 2024, and the outlook remains benign, though not risk-free.
- Growth prospects are driven by exports, capex, structural improvements in key sectors, and disinflation.
- Mr. Milei will have to balance fiscal discipline with IMF negotiations and political resistance to reforms.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Vietnam’s new leadership is once again saying the right things about promoting the private sector…
- …But SOEs have fallen in number; those remaining are bigger, more profitable and more efficient.
- They don’t invest as much as other firms though, strengthening the case for their further diminution.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The structural adjustment in China’s residential property market is inching towards a resolution.
- The government isn’t bailing out developers but is pushing to resolve excess home-supply issues.
- More policy support for residential demand is a likely response to trade-war escalation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The jump in investor sentiment points to a higher EZ Composite PMI in March.
- Current account data suggest services trade may be a drag on EZ GDP in Q1; inventories may offset it.
- The INSEE survey shows improving, but still subdued, business confidence in France.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We are comfortable forecasting only two more rate cuts this year after hawkish tweaks to MPC guidance.
- Employment continues to hold up relative to surveys, and pay growth is far too strong to deliver 2% inflation.
- Ms. Reeves can rectify OBR forecast changes with only small spending cuts, affecting the MPC little.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
