CONSUMERS’ SPENDING IS SLOWING...
- ...WEAKER PAYROLLS IN Q3 WILL EXERT FURTHER PRESSURE
Samuel TombsUS
The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Hard to trust given the rock-bottom response rate.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Jobs falls are easing and pay growth is far too high to deliver 2% inflation, but the MPC seems keen to cut anyway.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Prices will keep gaining as stamp duty disruption has further to unwind.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Inflation is proving sticky, with most of June's acceleration looking genuine.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A huge bounce in official retail sales is coming in June as seasonal distortions unwind.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Potential future tax hikes hit hiring sentiment, but wage growth is slowing only gradually.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Recovering as the Stamp Duty disruption fades
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Down, but big revision to the April data suggests Q2 was good.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Japan's headline consumer inflation slows after energy subsidies restart; upper house election poses JGB risks
Duncan WrigleyGlobal
Japan's headline consumer inflation slows after energy subsidies restart
upper house election poses JGB risks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Low simply because auto plant shutdowns have been less prevalent than usual.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Sales growth less impressive in real terms; consumer slowdown continues.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Still on track to hand the ECB a 25bp rate cut in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Still on track to hand the ECB a 25bp rate cut in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Most regional currencies have rallied on still-attractive carry and resilient terms-of-trade.
- Trade tensions with the US are reigniting inflation worries and complicating monetary policy decisions.
- Central banks face narrowing scope for cuts, as political risk and global uncertainty intensify.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Malaysian GDP growth rose in Q2, beating consensus and exactly matching our 4.5% forecast .
- Still, manufacturing and mining are showing worrying signs and face further headwinds.
- Singapore’s surprisingly strong Q2 GDP likely will be just a respite; expect a sharper slowdown in H2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
