- In one line:Q2 GDP is shaping up for a solid gain as retail sales roar into the spring, defying rocketing economic uncertainty.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Consumers breathe a sigh of relief, but the labor market still is softening.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Uncertainty driven rebound in consumers' confidence points to continued solid retail spending growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: PMI rebounds as uncertainty fades, and drop in price balances helps the MPC.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Equipment investment is set to fall sharply.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line:Borrowing likely overshot the OBR’s projections in April, we still expect tax rises by the end of the year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing activity remains weak according to the CBI, it will remain so for some time to come.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Inflation eases slightly, but risks persist.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: The gift that keeps on giving to ECB doves.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Downtrend continues as unemployment fears near Covid-time peak.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Boosted by investment and consumption.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Core inflation ticks up after removal of energy subsidies
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Core inflation nudges up, after energy subsidies end
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- US- Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
- UK-Strong growth and inflation mean an August skip
- EZ-Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July’s FOMC meeting
- CHINA- Growth worries likely to delay the BoJ’s rate normalisation
- EM ASIA- BI’s easing cycle back in play, with 75bp more cuts by end-2025
- LATAM -Strong start to 2025 for Brazil and Colombia masks challenges ahead
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Disinflation has resumed in Brazil, with transportation prices falling and only a modest rise in food prices.
- The strong BRL, falling commodity prices and softening demand signal continued disinflation in H2.
- The fiscal outlook is fragile, despite short-term gains, with rigid spending and political resistance to reform.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Weak French inflation data put ECB doves in the driving seat ahead of next week’s May EZ HICP.
- German GfK consumer confidence and the ESI were robust midway through Q2; what tariff shock?
- EZ wage growth slowed sharply at the start of 2025; we doubt it will fall much further.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Our high neutral rate estimate of 3.75%-4.0% is one reason we expect only one more MPC rate cut.
- Elevated inflation expectations, especially for consumers, point to a high neutral rate.
- Slowing disinflation in 2025 also suggests that Bank Rate is only modestly restrictive now.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
