Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- A cyclical rise in tax revenues provides an incentive for political brinkmanship to continue in France.
- Industrial output signals upside risk to investment but how will consumers respond to falling incomes?
- Growth in France will drop to the bottom of the pile of the major four economies next year.
- We expect payrolls to fall by 10K in July and August, assuming the usual revisions.
- Vacancies are stable or recovering according to private-sector data; the official data will follow suit.
- Pay growth is moderating only slowly as high inflation expectations and stabilising jobs sustain wage gains.
- We think the core CPI rose by 0.4% in August, as pass-through from the tariffs intensified.
- Adobe’s Digital Price Index—a good guide to a segment of core goods prices—jumped in August.
- Prices for air travel and accommodation services are rebounding from Q2 weakness.
- Chile’s downside inflation surprise strengthens the case for a cautious 25bp policy rate cut today.
- Colombia’s inflation persists, as food and service components push the headline rate above 5%.
- BanRep remains cautious, with structural inflation drivers and fiscal reform clouding the policy outlook.
- Vietnam’s August export figures confirm that the front-loading to the US is well and truly over.
- Our proxy GDP gauge is holding steady from Q2 at 6.8%; ‘official’ growth rate will probably be higher.
- The household sector is still on the mend, finding greater support from the job market.
- The ECB will hold fire this week, as data has swung to the side of the hawks over the past few months.
- The confidence interval around a baseline of a stable deposit rate at 2% next year is widening.
- Rates will be stable or fall in the next six months; then the balance will shift towards no change or hikes.
- Gilt yields have soared, as yields have risen globally and the markets price in UK fiscal risk.
- Elevated inflation expectations partly explain why UK yields have reached their highest since 1998.
- We think market-based expectations are being suppressed by the RPI-CPI transition in 2030.
In one line: Down sharply again.
In one line: Solid production numbers, but net trade in goods remain under pressure.
In one line: Growth slows as tariff front-running disappears.
In one line: As we expected, but where was the Airbus-driven upward revision?
Philippine inflation has finally bottomed out
- In one line: Strong growth and stubborn price pressures will keep the MPC on hold for the rest of the year.
- In one line: The PMI inches up but still remains overly downbeat.
- In one line: Stubborn wage and price pressures should keep the MPC cautious, but falling employment is a building risk.
- In one line: Private car registrations should continue to rise as displacement demand drives sales.
- Payrolls lack momentum, but the first estimate for August jobs typically is revised upwards.
- Labor market slack is building, but less quickly than a year ago, when the FOMC eased by 50bp.
- The upcoming easing cycle, however, will be prolonged; we still look for 150bp cut by mid-2026.
- Mexico’s economy is showing modest resilience, supported by manufacturing and services.
- Consumption is underpinned by wages and remittances, but capex is weakening amid trade tensions.
- Brazil’s trade surplus is holding up, but industry is deteriorating due to US tariffs and tight policy.
- We’ve created our own GDP deflator for India; it suggests that growth collapsed in Q2, to just 5.8%…
- …The fiscal cost of ‘GST 2.0’ is small, so expect the same for its macro impact amid fiscal consolidation.
- Taiwanese inflation ticked up to 1.6% in August , from 1.5%, as typhoon Podul drove up food prices.
- A US executive order finally formalises its trade deal with Japan, ending uncertainty for Japan’s economy.
- Real wages have risen for the first time since December, boosting October rate-hike bets.
- The BoJ is likely to look past weaker ‘same-sample’ data, with trade worries fading.
