In one line: Better external sector performance likely to support Q2 GDP due tomorrow
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: Better external sector performance likely to support Q2 GDP due tomorrow.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: BoK hold rates in July, keeping an eye on trade developments and overheating property market in Seoul.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s FX reserves rebounded in June on currency and bond revaluation gains.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line : Japanese wage growth is not as weak as it looks, the wage slump was mostly about bonuses.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s services momentum cools amid property drag and post-holiday blues; Caixin composite PMI signals softer Q2 GDP.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Japan's manufacturing PMI rebound on stockpiling activity, but domestic demand softens
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: Korea's 20-day exports rebound in June on front loading ahead of reprieve expiry
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
- Food, a motor fuels base effect and unwinding clothes discounting drove up June CPI inflation to 3.6%.
- We think the inflation surprise represents genuine news rather than noise that will unwind in July.
- We raise our forecasts, now expecting CPI inflation to average 3.6% in H2, up from 3.5% previously.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The EZ goods trade surplus rose in May, but only because imports fell further than exports.
- Our Nowcast model points to upside risks to our forecast for Q2 growth, but it excludes net trade.
- We will update our Q2 growth forecasts on Friday with the EZ construction data for May.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Bank Indonesia surprised the thin consensus for a hold yesterday with its fourth 25bp rate reduction…
- …We continue to see an end-2025 rate of 4.75%, especially given BI’s rising anxiety over loan growth.
- Indian net exports were grim in Q2, even with US front-loading, but this won’t be seen year-over-year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Brazil —US tariffs rattle the outlook
- Mexico — Tariffs test Ms. Sheinbaum’s resolve
- Chile — Bracing for copper tariffs
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Surprise, surprise… at least two more 25bp cuts to come by year-end.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Surprise, surprise… at least two more 25bp cuts to come by year-end.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The June rise in core goods prices, ex-autos, was the biggest in three years; import-sensitive prices leapt...
...But only a quarter of the tariff costs has come through so far; expect even bigger price rises in July.
CPI services inflation will continue to cool, but it will offset only about half the pick-up in goods inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
A knock-out punch to the tariff inflation deniers.
Samuel TombsUS
- US - Immigration probably will continue to add meaningfully to labor supply
- EUROZONE - A 30% US tariff would send the EZ economy into recession in H2
- UK - Consumer spending to be supported by solid income growth
- CHINA+ - China’s ‘glass half-full’ money and credit data
- EM ASIA - BNM more worried about GDP growth than we expectedEM ASIA -
- LATAM - Brazil’s recovery stalls as financial and external headwinds mount
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
