In one line: Still on track to hand the ECB a 25bp rate cut in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Still on track to hand the ECB a 25bp rate cut in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The jump in June education jobs is more likely to be revised away than to unwind over coming months.
- June education jobs were revised down in 2022, 2023 and 2024; no other data corroborate the 2025 jump.
- A structural break following a mid-2024 methodology change makes the Michigan survey hard to believe.
Samuel TombsUS
- Most regional currencies have rallied on still-attractive carry and resilient terms-of-trade.
- Trade tensions with the US are reigniting inflation worries and complicating monetary policy decisions.
- Central banks face narrowing scope for cuts, as political risk and global uncertainty intensify.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Malaysian GDP growth rose in Q2, beating consensus and exactly matching our 4.5% forecast .
- Still, manufacturing and mining are showing worrying signs and face further headwinds.
- Singapore’s surprisingly strong Q2 GDP likely will be just a respite; expect a sharper slowdown in H2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Headline consumer inflation eased in June, as energy subsidies took effect.
- Rice prices are star ting to fall week-to-week, but broader food inflation is picking up.
- The bond market will probably be jittery after the Upper House election yesterday.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We’re lowering our Q2 GDP growth forecast for France, but lifting it for Spain and Italy…
- …We now think EZ GDP rose by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter, with the risk tilted to the upside.
- Near-term risks are balanced as we prepare to be marked-to-market on our H2 slowdown call.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We reluctantly brought forward our rate-cut call to August, from November, but it’s a ‘one-and-done’.
- Underlying GDP is trending up, retail sales will bounce strongly in June, and payroll falls seem to be easing.
- We continue to expect above-target inflation out to end-2027 after sticky wage growth and inflation data.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The modest gains in nominal retail sales in June were boosted by price rises; sales volumes were stagnant.
- Real consumption likely rose by just 1½% in Q2 and is on track for even slower growth in Q3.
- The cost of new tariffs has so far been borne entirely by US importers, rather than foreign exporters.
Samuel TombsUS
- Retail and industrial data in Colombia point to a broad-based recovery, despite political volatility.
- A stronger COP, easing inflation and resilient job market are fuelling durable goods consumption.
- Mr. Petro’s proposals, tax reform and external risks still cloud the investment outlook heading into 2026.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Japanese export growth was surprisingly weak, because of a drop in shipments to Taiwan and Canada.
- Japan’s economy has probably entered a technical recession in Q2, likely dragged down by net trade.
- The LDP coalition is at risk of losing its Upper House majority; this will be bond-and yen-negative.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Headline and core inflation remain on track to support a 25bp ECB rate cut by September.
- The key difference between our and the ECB’s latest forecast is that we see inflation rebounding in Q4.
- The outlook for the ECB is bi-modal; the Bank will stay at 2.0% in 2026 if it holds fire in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Surprise! Payrolls were revised to show jobs falling less than half as much this year as previously thought.
- The payrolls trend is improving, and surveys suggest job falls are ending, while pay growth is proving sticky.
- We reluctantly bring forward our rate-cut call to August, from November, but it’s a ‘one-and-done’.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Services disinflation is partly countering the tariff uplift to goods prices.
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: Better external sector performance likely to support Q2 GDP due tomorrow
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: Better external sector performance likely to support Q2 GDP due tomorrow.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: BoK hold rates in July, keeping an eye on trade developments and overheating property market in Seoul.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s FX reserves rebounded in June on currency and bond revaluation gains.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line : Japanese wage growth is not as weak as it looks, the wage slump was mostly about bonuses.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s services momentum cools amid property drag and post-holiday blues; Caixin composite PMI signals softer Q2 GDP.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
