Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: A skin-deep reprieve, if at all, from waning underlying momentum.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BLS data suggesting the foreign-born workforce is already rapidly shrinking look implausible.
- Sector-level payrolls in California and Texas suggest most undocumented workers remain in their jobs.
- A bird’s eye view of employment growth in the other 48 states and DC tells a similar story.
Samuel TombsUS
- Consumer-driven momentum and services strength supported Colombia’s Q2 growth, but industry lags.
- The fiscal deficit is on track to breach 8% of GDP, with no credible correction in sight.
- Disinflation is set to resume in Mexico and Brazil, but structural pressures and trade risks persist.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Japan’s Upper House election is done and dusted; the coalition has now lost its majority in both houses.
- July’s 20-day exports held up on a WDA basis, despite the higher tariffs applied to Korean exports to the US.
- A preliminary US-Korea trade deal may be reached before August 1, but anything agreed will be general.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The ECB will keep its powder dry this week, waiting for the September forecasts to decide its next move.
- The range of forecasts for the ECB’s policy rate next year has widened significantly.
We still see the deposit rate falling below 2% this year, setting up hikes by the end of 2026.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Sticky wage and price gains are being caused in part by falling MPC credibility.
- Household inflation expectations sit higher than their relationship with inflation implies, and are still rising.
- The UK is an outlier in Europe, where inflation expectations seem to have behaved much better.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
CONSUMERS’ SPENDING IS SLOWING...
- ...WEAKER PAYROLLS IN Q3 WILL EXERT FURTHER PRESSURE
Samuel TombsUS
The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Hard to trust given the rock-bottom response rate.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Jobs falls are easing and pay growth is far too high to deliver 2% inflation, but the MPC seems keen to cut anyway.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Prices will keep gaining as stamp duty disruption has further to unwind.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Inflation is proving sticky, with most of June's acceleration looking genuine.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A huge bounce in official retail sales is coming in June as seasonal distortions unwind.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Potential future tax hikes hit hiring sentiment, but wage growth is slowing only gradually.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Recovering as the Stamp Duty disruption fades
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Down, but big revision to the April data suggests Q2 was good.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Japan's headline consumer inflation slows after energy subsidies restart; upper house election poses JGB risks
Duncan WrigleyGlobal
Japan's headline consumer inflation slows after energy subsidies restart
upper house election poses JGB risks
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Low simply because auto plant shutdowns have been less prevalent than usual.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Sales growth less impressive in real terms; consumer slowdown continues.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
