- Taiwan’s exports surprised in May, rising 38.6%, up from 29.9% in April; the front-loading continues…
- …This will likely mean the central bank holds back on easing when it meets next week.
- Thai deflation likely hit a low in May, but the strengthening THB could lead to its return next year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ compensation per employee growth slowed in Q1, in line with easing negotiated wage growth.
- Other measures out in the coming days are likely to also show slower wage growth in Q1.
- We suspect wage growth will now plateau in the 2.5%-to-3.0% range, remaining historically high.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect CPI inflation in May to slow to 3.4%—close to rounding to 3.3%—from 3.5% in April.
- A correction to Vehicle Excise Duty and airfare falls will be partly offset by strong food and clothes prices.
- May’s CPI inflation will likely match the MPC’s forecast, and services inflation will slightly exceed it.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Producer deflation slammed by weakening international energy prices, weather-hit construction activity
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's CPI still in mild deflation, while producer deflation worsens due to weak global oil prices
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Disinflation remains on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
Rise in openings irreconcilable with other evidence.
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: Fastest growth in eleven quarters thanks to tariff-front-running-led jump in Irish GDP.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: No signs yet of food disinflation stabilising.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Front-loading most of this year’s remaining cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
The RBI front-loads most of this year’s remaining cuts
Front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US continues apace
Latest electricity-price hike nudges Vietnamese inflation up a touch
Vietnamese retail sales are having a torrid Q2
The resurgence in Philippine sales is topping out
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- A drop in EZ headline inflation to 2.0% in May should be enough to pull a 25bp ECB rate cut over the line.
- The ECB’s 2026 HICP forecasts likely will determine whether doves get rates cut to 1.75% over summer.
- German retail sales fell in April, but the upturn in EZ real M1 growth accelerated further.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ GDP was propelled higher in Q1 on the back of an upwardly revised Irish GDP figure...
- ...This was, in turn, down to tariff front-running practices, which will almost surely reverse in Q2.
- We are cutting our forecast for EZ Q2 GDP, but the strength in Q1 means our 2025 call is still up a tad.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The RBI surprised with a larger 50bp cut to the repo rate, to 5.50%, but hardened its stance to “neutral”.
- We still expect one more 25bp cut, in October, with the MPC underestimating the “space” it has left.
- Ignore Vietnam’s smaller trade surplus in May; the front-loading of exports to the US continues apace.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We think the chances of a ‘skip’ at the August MPC meeting are higher than the market assumes.
- Inflation will likely run above 2% beyond 2026, disinflation has slowed and GDP is trending up solidly.
- Food for the doves next week, with payroll and GDP falls likely; but Q2 GDP is still set to grow 0.3% q/q.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
