Pantheon Publications

8 April 2025 UK Monitor The US pouring gas on the fire means a chance of recession

• We still think tariffs will be stagflationary eventually, as countries retaliate and boost government spending.
• But the balance of risks has shifted to recession after President Trump doubled down over the weekend.
• We cut 2025 GDP growth to 0.7% but leave our rate forecasts unchanged, waiting for clarity on headlines.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, February 2025

In one line: Rebounding as expected; will global trade war hurt consumers? 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, April 2025

In one line:  Plunging, reflecting market rout. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, Germany, February

In one line: German industry likely had a great Q1, but what awaits in Q2? 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 7 April 2025: China's reserves ex valuation effects fell

China's foreign reserves excluding valuation effects fell
Japan's real wage decline hurts consumption

Duncan WrigleyChina+

Global Datanote: Employment, US, March 2025

Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.

Samuel TombsGlobal

PM Datanote: US Employment, March

Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.

Samuel TombsUS

UK Datanote: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel, March 2025

• In one line: Jobs market passes the worst as prices and wages prove persistent.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Final Services and Composite PMI, March 2025

• In one line: Strengthening domestic spending can cushion the tariff blow.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, March 2025

• In one line: The Construction sector will continue to recover as planning reforms and Government spending boost sentiment.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Car Registrations, March 2025

• In one line: 

  Car registrations will continue to rise despite ‘Liberation Day’ autos tariffs.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EZ Datanote: Construction PMIs, Eurozone, March 2025

In one line:  Up despite being held back by German weakness. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, February 2025

In one line: Solid but unlikely to last.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, February 2025

In one line: Not enough to salvage Q1, but the 3m/3m trend is turning up.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

Factory Orders, Germany, February 2025

In one line: Growth and the surveys were picking up, before Mr. Trump’s tariff hammer.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 4 April 2025

A brief spell of policy-induced deflation is around the corner in Thailand
Very soft, but March should be the low for Philippine inflation this year

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

March 2025 - U.K. Housing Watch

THE RUSH TO BEAT STAMP-DUTY CHANGES PEAKS...

• ...BUT HOUSE PRICES SHOULD STILL RISE BY 4% IN 2025

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, March

Weak, but far from definitive.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

7 April 2025 US Monitor Payroll growth will slow, but it's too strong for the Fed to ease in May

• The stock price drawdown is historically consistent with a 1% fall in payrolls, but slow gains are more likely.
• Most services firms have little exposure to tariffs; leading indicators of hiring are weak, not on the floor.
• The healthcare sector will remain a jobs juggernaut; falling manufacturing payrolls will drag modestly.

Samuel TombsUS

7 April 2025 LatAm Monitor LatAm positioned to capitalise on trade shifts and tariff pressures

• Mr. Trump’s tariff uncertainty will continue to weigh on LatAm’s prospects, despite it not being hit too hard.
• Mexico is aiming for fiscal discipline, but rising debt and optimistic forecasts threaten its credibility, again.
• Structural reforms, a Pemex overhaul and looking beyond the US are key to stabilising its debt outlook.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America