Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- The Swiss economy eked out growth of 0.2% in Q4 after shrinking in Q3. Q1 looks set to be better.
- EZ industry had a challenging December, and surveys point to downside risk in early Q1.
- We think it is only a matter of time before EU leaders get serious about joint borrowing for defence.
- We reflect on our calls, and what we should learn from the misses, in our 500th UK Economic Monitor.
- Solid growth and persistent inflation in 2025 panned out, but job growth was weaker than we expected.
- Our three key themes now? The high neutral rate; structural labour-market shifts; persistent inflation.
In one line: Disappointing; PMI points to downside risks for early-Q1.
In one line: Better than we thought; growth will pick up in Q1.
In one line: Better than we thought; growth will pick up in Q1.
Thailand’s stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP has the interim government to thank
A sudden pop in ‘upstream core’ inflation in India to start the year
In one line: Decent growth confirmed, but risks tilted towards a downward revision in the third estimate.
In one line: Decent growth confirmed, but risks tilted towards a downward revision in the third estimate.
In one line: Inflation holds steady; SNB will stand pat even if inflation falls below zero for a few months.
In one line: Inflation holds steady; SNB will stand pat even if inflation falls below zero for a few months.
In one line: Hints of shifting property market policy, as prices extend their decline
- The rise in the unadjusted January core CPI was similar to typical increases in the late 2010s.
- Used auto prices will rebound, but increases for goods ex-autos will slow after January’s one-time hikes.
- New rents are now barely rising, signalling a substantial fall in CPI shelter inflation over the next year.
- The lower weight of food in India’s CPI basket forces us to cut our 2026 forecast to 3.3% from 4.1%.
- BI is likely to ‘keep calm and carry on’ holding rates in spite of the JCI plunge; the bleeding has stopped.
- The plunge to 3% GDP growth in the Philippines is effectively a hard landing that should ensure a cut.
- China’s policymakers have a sophisticated analysis of low inflation and are more explicitly aiming for reflation.
- But this is not yet translating into a change in short-term monetary policy thinking.
- Broad credit growth continued to slow in January, with policy-bank-backed stimulus still coming through.
- Headline inflation in Switzerland held at 0.1%, as imported deflation eased despite a stronger CHF…
- …Regardless, the SNB will not turn to negative rates and may intervene in FX markets instead.
- Decent Q4 GDP growth in the EZ was confirmed, but risks are tilted towards a downward revision.
- Further evidence of a rebound in growth came from the January RICS, BRC and REC surveys.
- Q4 GDP disappointed consensus—not us—but the crucial business service sectors can drive a better Q1.
- We expect inflation 0.1pp higher than the MPC, and payrolls to fall 10K month-to-month, in January.
- In one line: Holding judgement, for now, as we await more details; but downside risks to 2026 forecast.
- In one line: Holding judgement, for now, as we await more details; but downside risks to 2026 forecast.
- In one line: Above trend due to mild weather and a blip in healthcare jobs.
Above trend due to mild weather and a blip in healthcare jobs.
