Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- We look for a 75K rise in July payrolls; key surveys are weak and federal job cuts likely increased.
- A rebound in the unemployment rate looks likely, given the sustained rise in continuing claims.
- The 15% tariff on EU imports includes most previously exempt goods, so the overall AETR has risen to 17%.
Samuel TombsUS
- Economic activity in Argentina is firm, but early signs of fatigue are emerging as credit conditions tighten.
- Structural fiscal issues and political frictions with the provinces threaten longer-term macro consolidation.
- Dollarisation and thin reserves leave it vulnerable, despite the recent disinflation and IMF programme.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indian IP growth sank to a 10-month low in June, but the huge upgrade to May cushions this blow.
- Overall momentum continues to deteriorate, pouring a lot of cold water over the rosy PMIs…
- …The slump in consumer firms continues, but expect to see ‘better’ manufacturing in Q2 GDP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Involution (内å·), or excessive competition, has been a buzzword in China in recent years.
- Industrial profits are being squeezed by oversupply, weak demand and excessive competition.
- Policymakers started an anti-involution campaign in earnest in July, hoping to restore industrial orders.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The US-EU trade deal is a decent outcome for the EZ economy, but it will sting politically in Brussels.
- A relatively small 1% fall in Irish Q2 GDP points to upside risk to this week’s EZ GDP growth print.
- The probability of a September rate cut will increase this week if our July inflation forecasts prove right.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect payrolls to be revised up to an 8K fall in June, and to drop by 7K in July.
- Vacancies leading indicators suggest the labour market is stabilising after-payroll-tax-hike disruption.
- We expect another solid private-sector ex-bonus AWE gain, at 0.4% month-to-month in June.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
Underlying investment looks stagnant at best.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Inflation stabilises as demand cools.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Temporary slowdown in M1, we hope, resilient IFO and ISTAT surveys.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Unemployment fears fall slightly, but saving intentions rise further.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Tokyo headline inflation slows, despite rising food inflation
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We think headline GDP leapt by around 3% in Q2 overall, but underlying growth was much weaker…
- …Look for a tepid 1½% gain consumers’ spending and a drop of about 2½% in fixed investment…
- …But measurement issues likely meant a huge contribution from net trade was only partly offset elsewhere.
Samuel TombsUS
- Headline inflation is stabilising in Brazil, but services remain sticky amid wage pressures.
- A stronger BRL and falling input prices are helping, but tariff noise and politics cloud the outlook.
- PMIs signal weakening activity; firms are cutting back on hiring and capex as confidence deteriorates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indonesia’s Q2 fiscal belt-tightening is reassuring in terms of policy credibility, if bad for growth,…
- …The urgency to restrain spending should fade from Q3, with revenue growth set to recover gradually.
- The overtly dovish Mr. Vitai has been chosen to head the BoT; we now see two 25bp rate cuts in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Tokyo headline inflation declined in July, due to energy subsidies for households.
- But the BoJ will focus on the upward creep in food inflation, despite rice inflation slowing in some data.
- The Bank is likely to take a somewhat rosier view of growth prospects at this Thursday’s meeting.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- EZ money supply growth slowed in June, but the trend is solid and the credit impulse improved again.
- IFO expectations in Germany are rising across almost all sectors; is a cyclical upturn underway?
- French consumer confidence rose marginally in July, but Italy’s IESI was held back by services weakness.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We reiterate our Q2 GDP growth call of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter after retail sales improved in June.
- Over-50s’ confidence disconnected from spending, possibly as political views drive sentiment more.
- Under-50s are optimistic, consistent with retail volumes growing by 2% year-over-year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Bounce in the PMI looks too good to be true.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Auto shutdowns distort the picture; labor market likely still loosening.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Manufacturing activity will continue to recover from the tariff-induced slowdown.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
