Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- The IFO fell in September, offsetting temporary optimism after the jump in the PMI earlier.
- German surveys remain consistent with decent near-term growth in manufacturing and services.
- We still see weak growth in H2 2025, but the upturn in real M1 growth promises a much better 2026.
- The ONS’s measure of house prices dropped by 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis in July.
- Forward-looking indicators for the housing market suggest that activity will remain muted in H2.
- The November Budget represents a wild card for house prices, as rumours of property-tax hikes swirl.
- US - FOMC likely to ease a further 50bp this year, but expect close votes
- EUROZONE - We’re lifting our EURUSD forecast, but not enough for a rate cut
- UK - Week in review: Sticky inflation and questionable slack
- CHINA+ - Xi-Trump call: Trust rebuilding, finer TikTok details still being ironed out
- EM ASIA - Three consecutive surprises from BI and we expect another in October
- LATAM - Copom holds Selic but normalisation path emerging; Argentina in trouble
In one line: Eking out some growth.
In one line: Eking out some growth.
In one line: That’s more like it, but upturn in manufacturing is on borrowed time.
In one line: That’s more like it, but upturn in manufacturing is on borrowed time.
In one line: Political brinkmanship comes at a cost.
In one line: Political brinkmanship comes at a cost.
A soft-ish end to Q3, but Indian momentum is still largely improving
- The composite PMI is alone in signalling a return to 3% GDP growth in Q3; its margin of error is wide.
- But the signal of slowing producer price inflation is reliable, consistent with a transitory tariff impact.
- We think new home sales dropped back in August, adding to the woes of homebuilders.
- Mexico’s industrial and services activity fell sharply in July, confirming fragile momentum ahead in H2.
- Retail sales show modest resilience, but tight credit and a weakening job market weigh on consumption.
- US support is stabilising the Argentinian peso for the moment, but structural fragilities still loom.
- India’s flash PMIs only stumbled in September; no big tariff hit or boost from goods and service tax…
- …The complete numbers for Q3 point to GDP growth of 7.4%, posing upside risks to our 7.0% call.
- Malaysian inflation ticked up in August; we see increased upward risks for the rest of the year.
- The EZ composite PMI rose further in September, but the details were weaker than the headline.
- The outlook for services is improving, but new orders in manufacturing warn of a Q4 slowdown in output.
- ECB doves will need a clearer sign of weakness in the PMIs to push their case for a Q4 insurance cut.
- The PMI’s headline activity index fell in September and signals quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.1% in Q3...
- ...But the PMI has been more erratic lately than usual, so we retain our call for growth of 0.2% in Q3.
- Easing price pressures will encourage the MPC, but solid growth will limit emergence of spare capacity.
In one line: Improving, but still subdued.
- In one line: Driven almost exclusively by a V-shaped bounce in coal output.
GDP LIKELY REGAINED SOME MOMENTUM IN Q3...
- ...BUT CONTINUED CAUTIOUS HIRING WILL SPUR FURTHER EASING
- The openings-to-U6 ratio has fallen materially this year, and job switchers are no longer rewarded.
- The NFIB, regional Fed, Indeed and NY Fed consumer surveys all signal slower wage growth ahead.
- The tariffs are chiefly responsible; wage growth has slowed most at businesses on the front line.
- Core services inflation remains sticky in Mexico, keeping Banxico’s easing gradual.
- External drivers support activity, while domestic demand and capex continue to struggle.
- Fiscal prudence and stable MXN provide cover for gradual easing, but trade risks remain elevated.
