Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Uncertainty remains high even after Mr. Trump’s blink; for now, the tariffs imply a 1% uplift to consumer prices.
- …That’s a slightly smaller boost than we previously factored in, but the outlook for exports has darkened.
- China’s 84% tariffs will inflict a 0.3% blow to US GDP; we still expect the economy to slow to a near-standstill.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexican Peso — Exposed to further tariff noise
- Argentinian Peso — Stability or mirage
- Colombian Peso — Under stress from oil and trade shocks
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The RBI voted unanimously for a second 25bp rate cut and a shift in stance to “accommodative”.
- Its softer CPI forecasts now see below-target inflation persisting until the end of this year…
- …Opening the door to at least two more cuts—our baseline—more than the consensus for just one.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Both the US and China seem to have dug in, making a short-term cessation of trade-war hostilities unlikely.
- More escalation is likely on the cards, but this could be the crisis that prompts China to boost consumption.
- The PBoC has started allowing RMB depreciation as part of the response, but it must tread carefully.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- A fall in investment will be the main driver of the incoming recession in the Eurozone.
- Germany will bear the brunt of the slowdown, with a 0.6% fall in GDP across Q2 and Q3.
- Fiscal stimulus and trade diversion are the main upside risks to growth relative to our new baseline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Slow progress in implementing the Bernanke review leaves us pessimistic about the resulting changes.
- Sub-optimal communication means the MPC will need higher interest rates than otherwise.
- The rapidly evolving trade war means we see three further 25bp cuts to Bank Rate in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Short-lived, policy-induced deflation is over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Short-lived, policy-induced deflation in Indonesia is over
How high can Philippine sales go before they hit a ceiling?
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - Stagnation in GDP is now our base case, after the tariff madness
- EUROZONE - We think the EZ economy is now entering a technical recession
- UK - GDP likely unchanged in February as manufacturing drags on growth
- CHINA+ - China’s brinkmanship with the US likely aimed at forcing start of talks
- EM ASIA - GDP downgrades and more rate cuts, in the wake of ‘Liberation Day’
- LATAM - LatAm positioned to capitalise on trade shifts and tariff pressures
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Tariff-funded tax cuts would simply give with one hand while taking more with the other.
- The net federal revenue available is likely to be just $200B, after accounting for the weaker economy.
- We look for a below-consensus 0.2% rise in the March core CPI; it’s too soon to see impact of China tariffs
Samuel TombsUS
- Colombia’s disinflation resumed in March, and still-tight financial conditions will help it continue in Q2…
- …But the COP’s sell-off amid trade tensions will limit disinflation’s progress and hurt import costs.
- Chile’s inflation rebounded in March but will slow in Q2, although trade volatility raises new risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indonesian CPI returned to the black in March, as the power discounts expired; food will soon U-turn.
- The Philippines’ sales index continues to surge, but a number of consumer sectors are still struggling.
- Food inflation in Taiwan continues to rise, though some of this is exaggerated by base effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Slower growth, coupled with a stronger CHF and lower oil prices, will keep Swiss inflation down.
- The SNB is likely to cut once more; we now expect the easing cycle to end in June.
- EZ house prices rose 4.2% last year and will increase again this year, as lower interest rates fuel demand.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for a 30K month-to-month fall in March payrolls, consistent with a 6k fall after revisions.
- The unemployment rate should tick up to 4.5% in February, from 4.4% in January.
- Pay growth remains sticky; we expect February private ex-bonus AWE to rise 0.3% month-to-month.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Recent falls in oil prices and shipping costs will offset about one quarter of the tariff boost to inflation.
- The $10 fall in WTI oil prices, however, also points to a 0.1% hit to GDP via lower business investment.
- The fall in financial wealth is consistent with households’ spending undershooting its trend by 0.7%.
Samuel TombsUS
- A muted tariff hit masks deeper vulnerabilities in trade exposure, export composition and market volatility.
- Central banks will shift gear as the trade shock, falling capex and weak demand cloud the outlook.
- Peru’s disinflation is on track, but the trade war is a threat to the relatively benign outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Seasonally adjusting Vietnam’s quirky GDP data shows that growth improved further in Q1, to 7.3%…
- …But a sharp fall by year-end to sub-5%—at least— looks inevitable, as US tariffs hit exports and capex.
- Outright deflation in Thailand seems set to take hold, again, bolstering our call for an April BoT cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Both China and the US are posturing as the trade war escalates and markets plunge.
- China’s National Team appears to be intervening, with limited success, to soften the A-share market dive.
- The PBoC is likely to cut the RRR soon to boost confidence; government-bond issuance will speed up
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The EZ is now likely entering a technical recession; the ECB will cut its deposit rate to 2.00% by June.
- Markets are pricing-in too dovish an outcome for the ECB; the bank will struggle to push rates below 2%.
- The economy is facing the trade shock in decent shape and fiscal stimulus still pose upside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
