Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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THAI BALLOT AND HOT Q4 GDP NO SILVER BULLET
- …INDIA’S 2026/27 BUDGET KICKS THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD
In one line: Sentiment edges down, price pressures remain elevated.
In one line: A strong rise in M1 growth; did lending growth really slow?
In one line: Slight deterioration, but consumers and retailers are upbeat.
In one line: Dovish, but far from underwriting a further rate cut.
- Tariff revenues were continuing to fall even before the Supreme Court’s ruling, as supply chains evolved.
- The effective rate likely is now just 8%; revenues are too low and the outlook too unclear for more tax cuts.
- February auto sales likely will maintain the downward trend; risks skewed towards a further decline ahead.
- An agriculture-led rebound lifted Argentina’s Q4 growth, yet job gains remain limited and uneven.
- Inflation is picking up at the margin, testing the durability of the success seen in recent quarters.
- Fiscal surpluses anchor credibility, but market access hinges on sustained discipline and reform.
- The Bank of Korea stood pat in February, and introduced longer-term forward guidance on rate direction.
- Governor Rhee cited persistent financial stability risk and a stronger growth outlook as reasons to hold.
- The newly introduced Fed-style dot-plot suggests no change in policy rate for at least six months.
- M1 growth leapt in January, but loan growth to non-financial firms slowed…or did it?
- The EC confidence survey fell in February, but the probability of a recession in the Eurozone is still low.
- Business sentiment in Italy edged down this month, but we remain optimistic about growth in 2026.
- House prices rose by a respectable 2.4% on average in Q4, down only slightly from 2.5% in Q4 2026.
- 2025’s stamp-duty hike and mansion tax are weighing on house prices in London and the South East.
- A sharp drop in household inflation expectations in February seals a March rate cut.
In one line: Dovish, but far from underwriting a further rate cut.
In one line: Sentiment improved, but unemployment fears remain high.
- In one line: Members say “why wait” via a surprise cut.
- In one line: Members say “why wait” via a surprise cut.
In one line: Strong momentum in domestic demand, but risks still loom in early 2026.
- - CHINA'S POLICYMAKERS FOCUS ON LONGER-TERM GOALS
- - PM TAKAICHI LIKELY MORE PRAGMATIC THAN FEARED
- - BOK RELIEF AS KRW PRESSURE EASES, FOR NOW
Still pointing to a weaker labor market, but big recent revisions raise questions.
- In one line: Core pressures keep inflation near 4%, limiting Banxico’s room to ease.
- AI-related capex and wealth effects from gains in tech stocks were major growth tailwinds in 2025.
- AI’s impact on productivity is less clear, although we see tentative signs of an small boost emerging.
- The impact on the labor market still appears modest, despite the scare stories.
- The BoT surprised almost all forecasters, including us, with an extra 25bp cut to its policy rate to 1.00%.
- At the same time, though, it has conceded the battle against structurally subdued GDP growth…
- …We still believe that 1.00% will mark the terminal rate, but more CPI misses could force another cut.
