Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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HOUSE PRICES UNCHANGED IN JANUARY...
- ...BUT WAR IN IRAN WILL HIT SENTIMENT HARD IN 2026
In one line: Industrial production likely fell over Q1.
In one line: Lifted by soaring energy inflation, but the core and food will rise too in due course.
- A record jump in gas prices hugely boosted the CPI in March; expect a further 0.2pp hit in April.
- The core CPI likely will be lifted in April by a rebound in used auto prices and a catch-up increase in rents...
- ...But the fading tariff boost and slowing rent rises will drag down inflation in H2, despite higher oil prices.
- Fuel and food drove inflation in Brazil, but broader price pressures are now beginning to emerge.
- Disinflation persists in parts of the basket, but momentum is slowing and becoming uneven.
- The COPOM will continue easing cautiously, as higher inflation and risks limit scope for aggressive cuts.
- China’s first rise in producer prices in 41 months was partly due to the global energy-price shock...
- ...But it does not indicate an improvement in demand fundamentals nor the exit from low inflation.
- Producer prices for consumer goods continue to fall, while core consumer inflation is subdued.
- Data out to February show that Spain’s growth streak was faltering even before the energy shock.
- Industrial production, retail sales and construction all likely declined over Q1.
- But record-high employment and fiscal support likely kept growth from grinding to a halt last quarter.
- The temporary two-week ceasefire is already under strain, suggesting energy prices will remain high...
- ...and the data-flow since the start of the Iran war has been fractionally hawkish, in our view.
- But the MPC will wait for more clarity before jumping, so we expect a hold in April and a rate hike in June.
In one line: Spanish industry was performing poorly even before the energy shock.
In one line: Industrial production fell in Q1, but net trade in goods rose sharply.
- China has ramped up energy production from alternative sources in the wake of the Iran war.
- China has seen limited trade spillover; East Asian PMIs show a common theme of higher oil-driven input costs.
- Hong Kong’s PMI plunged on war uncertainty, with price pressures yet to feed through.
In one line: Decline will be exacerbated over the coming months.
- February data imply consumers’ spending likely rose by only about 1% in Q1...
- ...The looming real income squeeze and low confidence point to broadly flat spending in Q2.
- Core PCE inflation will be lower by year-end, despite higher energy prices, as the tariff uplift fades.
- Lower oil prices bring temporary inflation relief, but core pressures remain persistent in Mexico.
- Banxico has limited room to ease while inflation is elevated and expectations remain vulnerable.
- Markets are underestimating geopolitical risk; the inflation outlook and easing path are even more fragile.
- German manufacturing fell in Q1, but survey data point to a robust end to the quarter and Q2 strength.
- Net trade in goods surged in Q1, but we suspect the boost was partially offset by a fall in inventories.
- Our nowcast models for Germany point to big upside risk to Q1 growth, but take them with a pinch of salt.
- In one line: Not as bad as we all thought.
In one line: New orders stung by surge in input prices.
In one line: Strong gain in core orders.
- In one line: Keeping calm and carrying on with a sensible pause.
RBI is keeping calm and carrying on with a sensible pause
