Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- The re-escalation of trade frictions highlights the lack
of trust between the US and China; more talks needed.
- September’s export rebound was partly due to base
effects, which mask weaker monthly momentum.
- The volatile nature of US-China trade relations still
poses a downside risk to China’s near-term growth.
- Consumers’ major purchase intentions have fallen sharply, signalling flat spending on durable goods.
- NRF and Redbook data point to a drop in retail sales in September, ending a strong three-month run.
- Most measures of spending on discretionary services have weakened, consistent with a lackluster Q4.
- Peru’s Congress has impeached President Boluarte,
amid surging crime and collapsing support.
- Interim President Jerí assumes office with a limited
mandate; restoring confidence will be a challenge.
- Peru’s economy is holding firm despite the saga,
supported by strong institutions and fundamentals.
- Germany will raise its public debt burden by more
than €1T over the next decade; what will this fund?
- A sustained rise in defence spending to 3.5% ramps
up the pressure on public finances from 2027.
- The German government’s plan implies front-loaded
investment from special funds starting next year.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 4.0% in
September from 3.8% in August.
- Motor fuel and airfare base effects should together
add 23bp to inflation compared to August.
- Services inflation is proving sticky, so we expect
headline inflation to slow only to 3.8% by December.
- In one line: Food & beverage deflation is back, and will likely deepen this month.
- In one line: Food & beverage deflation is back, and will likely deepen this month.
Shutdown hit limited for now, but strong headwinds remain.
- In one line: Payroll falls will ease as tax hike hit begins to fade.
In one line: EZ manufacturing fell flat on its face in August.
- Export growth in Taiwan missed expectations, but it moderated only slightly and is still historically high.
- Strong quarter-to-quarter export growth points to a solid overall Q3 GDP growth print.
- Inflation is declining again, despite the recent typhoons, underpinned by falling crude oil prices.
- China’s industrial development model has sustained growth and resulted in world-class sectors like EVs.
- Policymaker s will aim to curb the undesired side effects of excess capacity while keeping its essence.
- They will aim to spur demand, but not at the price of limiting industrial and technological-led growth.
- Construction and manufacturing likely drove another slight increase in French GDP in Q3.
- Leading indicators for investment in France are subdued, but falling saving is helping consumption.
- Our updated forecasts for the four majors still see EZ GDP rising by 0.1% in Q3, but with downside risk.
- The strongest September car sales in five years indicate signs of life in the consumer.
- September’s REC survey points to easing payroll falls, so we look for an 8K month-to-month drop.
- We doubt graduate recruitment will drag much on payroll growth in September.
- In one line: Disinflation holds, but core pressures persist.
- In one line: Inflation rises marginally, but disinflation remains on track.
- In one line: Disinflation holds, but core pressures persist.
- In one line: Surprise, surprise… we weren’t at the “sweet spot” after all.
- In one line: Surprise, surprise… we weren’t at the “sweet spot” after all.
- In one line: Budget uncertainty will keep housing market weak until November.
