Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
THAI AND PHILIPPINE GROWTH SLOWEST SINCE COVID
- TAIWAN IS STILL FLYING, BUT THE TURN IN GDP HAS COME
In one line: Another survey suggesting ECB easing is over.
In one line: Consistent with faster EZ GDP growth.
In one line: Decent headline, but mixed details.
EXPECT AN EXTENDED FED EASING CYCLE...
- ...DRIVEN BY A WEAK LABOR MARKET AND FALLING INFLATION
Improving slightly, but investment still soft outside of tech.
- Bank of Korea remained on hold in November, citing a stronger growth and inflation outlook and a weak KRW.
- The accompanying statement dropped “easing stance” wording, amid a reduced easing bias on the MPB.
- While staying open to possible cuts, the chance of a January move is lower, likely pushed back to February.
- The acceleration in money and credit is easing, but both remain a bright spot for the EZ economy.
- The last set of business surveys for the month round up a month of largely hawkish data.
- It would take a downside surprise in inflation to push the ECB to cut in December; we doubt it will happen.
- The Budget cuts inflation in 2026 but raises it later, so there is no impact on the medium-term path for rates.
- Latest estimates of the neutral rate continue to suggest little room for the MPC to cut rates quickly.
- The Government will likely support the neutral rate with heavy debt issuance and tight immigration rules.
- In one line: Dovish even if the PMI overreacts to politics, so a December rate cut is even more likely.
- - CHINA LIKELY TO FOCUS ON EBBING DOMESTIC ACTIVITY
- - BOJ DECEMBER RATE HIKE BACK ON THE TABLE
- - KOREA’S CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REBOUND
LITTLE IN THE DATA TO SUPPORT AN INSURANCE RATE CUT...
Weak jobs market continues to depress consumers.
Weak September sales are a sign of what's to come.
Core PCE inflation set to undershoot the FOMC’s forecast in Q4.
- Early signs suggest there could be a moderation in Malaysia’s Q4 GDP, but risks are to the upside.
- In the longer term, supply side factors are likely to weigh on growth, due to poor capital stock growth.
- That said, we see the government pulling numerous policy levers to raise this.
- China’s new promotion scheme to raise consumption issued yesterday is old wine in new wineskins.
- The scheme focuses on boosting supply, without addressing the root causes of dull consumer demand.
- Bright spots amid the gloom include rising spending on consumer services, like sports and tourism.
- The BTP-Bund spread has continued to fall in recent months, in line with our call.
- We look for it to slide to 20bp by mid-2026, its average in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis.
- A higher Bund yield will still mean above-3% Italian yields though, keeping Rome’s debt costs high.
- A tax-and-spend budget that delayed fiscal consolidation will struggle to drive a sustained gilt rally.
- Measures to cut CPI inflation by 50bp in mid-2026 leave a December rate cut nailed on…
- …but the Budget will boost the MPC’s inflation forecasts fractionally from 2027.
- In one line: Motor sales contract a lot less.
