The drop in sales is probably noise, but the underlying trend is weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Was the rise in French private sector activity short-lived?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Was the rise in French private sector activity short-lived?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Services leads the way while industry downturn is easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Services leads the way while industry downturn is easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Expect growth to struggle for the rest of Q2.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Decent; services activity is firm, even as inflation pressures ease.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Decent; services activity is firm, even as inflation pressures ease.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
India’s lofty manufacturing PMI is becoming more well-rounded
India’s unreliable flash services PMI is still plateauing
Higher utilities inflation in Singapore offsets food disinflation in April
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Mexico’s Q1 GDP upward revision masks the underlying economic slowdown; rate cuts are badly needed.
- Pre-election spending will fuel short-term growth, despite rising public debt and economic challenges.
- Core inflation is easing in May, allowing a still-hawkish Banxico to consider rate cuts next month.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BoK stood pat in May, citing rising inflation risks due to strengthening economic conditions.
- The rate-cut timing is less certain now due to volatile expectations of the Fed’s move and geopolitical risk .
- Japan’s flash PMI surveys show tentative signs of growth broadening to manufacturing.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- In one line: House prices jump in March, but further gains will be more challenging as markets reprice rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Ignore the rise in the composite PMI in May it has been a poor guide to GDP growth since the pandemic...
- ...The failure of the employment index to reverse April's plunge adds to signs of slowing payroll growth.
- We look for a small rise in core capital goods shipments in April, due to a calendar quirk, not an improving trend.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Our final forecast for India’s Q1 GDP next week sees growth slow to 6.2%, from 8.4% in Q4…
- …The hits should come from an import bounce, weaker public spending and a plunge in valuables.
- Taiwanese retail sales will remain subdued for the rest of Q2, but a late -H2 recovery is in the works.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The June rate cut is safe, but sticky Q1 negotiated wage growth will prevent another one in July.
- We now see the ECB easing by 25bp in June, September, October and December; no cuts in 2025.
- The May EZ PMIs add to our conviction that EZ GDP growth is continuing its tepid rebound in Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The flash PMI suggests services CPI inflation will resume its decline after barely falling in April.
- The PMI suggests growth is slowing to a more comfortable 0.3% quarter-to-quarter pace too.
- So, the MPC can cut interest rates in August, even if April inflation ended the chances of a June reduction.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Sales likely to stagnate for the next few months, at best.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: June rate cut off the cards as services barely slows.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: There isn't room for tax cuts but the Chancellor seems set on another fiscal event in the Autumn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
