Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Underlying capex still looks relatively weak.
In one line: Downside risks are widening for Q2.
In one line: China’s big drop mainly due to global market volatility, rather than domestic economy
- In one line: The bigger jolt will come in April.
Oil surge leads to an immediate breach of the BSP’s target range
Recovering domestic demand will soon hit a brick wall
Probably providing a false read on services inflation.
- US - The March labor market data look worse beneath the surface
- EUROZONE - Further rise in price pressures will keep the SNB on the sidelines
- UK - Rundown of high saving rate can set a floor under spending in 2026
- CHINA+ - China’s profit turnaround meshes with strategic drive for high-tech
- EM ASIA - Inflation, not growth, is a bigger near-term issue for ASEAN factories
- LATAM - Credibility risks now dominate Colombia’s policy outlook
- The biggest one-month jump in gas prices since at least 1957 likely boosted the headline CPI by 0.7pp.
- Airline fares probably jumped too, while used vehicle prices are overdue a rebound…
- …But prices for other services likely rose only modestly, justifying the FOMC’s wait-and-see stance.
- Growth in Chile is losing speed, but the central bank has no room to respond any time soon.
- High oil prices are worsening the inflation outlook, limiting the scope for easing.
- Weak activity, high unemployment, fragile confidence and tight policy are delaying the recovery.
- GDP growth in Vietnam cooled just a tad in Q1, to 8.0% from 8.3%, if stripping out residual seasonality.
- We still see full-year 2026 growth moderating to 7.5%; high export base effects are now in the frame.
- This oil shock is looking worse for Vietnam than the one in 2022; we’ve raised our 2026 CPI call to 4.8%.
- France is set to swing right in the 2027 presidential election, but that’s not strictly good news for RN.
- Big declines in energy consumption and output due to mild weather likely stung French growth in Q1.
- French tax revenues ended 2025 on a high, bringing much relief to the embattled minority government.
- Surging fuel costs and a pullback in spending led to a drop in the March PMI.
- We stick to our call for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q1, and 0.0% in Q2.
- We expect the MPC to place more weight on rocketing input costs rather than slowing demand.
- The shocks to energy and fertilizer markets mean that food prices will climb through spring and summer…
- …But even a 20% rise in wholesale food prices would only add around 0.1pp to headline CPI inflation.
- The ongoing surge in gas prices is a far bigger and more immediate worry for consumers and the Fed.
- BanRep raised rates last week, as inflation remains persistent and expectations are still de-anchored.
- Institutional tensions between the government and central bank risk undermining BanRep’s credibility.
- Fiscal fragility and external shocks also reinforce the need for a prolonged restrictive stance going forward.
- Indonesia made a host of current spending cuts last week, but we still think a fuel-price hike is likely.
- Real GST growth in India held steady in March, indicating no rapid hit from the war or INR fallout.
- We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecast for Thailand further, to 1.3%, given the latest diesel-price rise.
- China’s 18.9% jump in manufacturing profits in January-to-February was largely due to high-tech sectors.
- Profit growth is likely to be hit by higher oil prices, but the damage should be less severe than in 2022.
- Auto sales should improve from their poor start to the year, but brutal competition is squeezing profits.
- Higher energy prices in March more than offset the disinflationary impact of the strong Swiss franc.
- But a decline in domestic inflation kept the headline rate from rising as much as the consensus expected.
- Headline inflation will rise further this year, as domestic price pressures are building.
- The DMP will be a slight relief to rate-setters, as firms’ medium-term inflation expectations were little moved.
- …But we see few signs of a swift end to the conflict in Iran, so energy prices are likely to remain high.
- So, we think the MPC will have to hike Bank Rate once in 2026, in June, before cutting twice in 2027.
- The rebound in March payrolls was driven by the end of strikes, benign weather and residual seasonality.
- More timely measures of job openings suggest labor demand has weakened since the Iran war began.
- Unemployment dipped as some people looked less actively for work; history points to a swift reversal.
Net trade on track for a big drag on headline GDP growth in Q1.
