Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Malaysia may be heading for an early election, but beneath the surface ethnic tensions are brewing.
- These tensions are coupled with rising religious conservatism, particularly among Malaysia’s youth.
- Governance is likely to become more religious, to fend off Islamist parties, hurting long-term growth.
- President Trump’s visit to Beijing last week marked a gradual improvement in bilateral relations...
- ...Which is likely to continue while Mr. Trump is in dealmaking mode to salvage his low popularity.
- The two countries’ different approaches to the AI transition should diffuse one key source of strain.
- Downside risks to EZ economic growth are widening, but we see broadly stable nominal growth.
- The starting position of public deficits makes fiscal balances vulnerable to a slowdown in the economy.
- A recession would widen the EZ budget deficit to 6% of GDP, triggering pro-cyclical tightening.
- The economy was ticking along fine before the war, even if Q1 GDP exaggerates growth somewhat.
- Ten-year gilt yields have another 30-to-40bp to rise if Andy Burnham wins a Labour leadership contest.
- April inflation should drop to 3.0% in data published this week, while the jobless rate should hold steady.
In one line: rise in fiscal deposits likely points to temporary building activity disruptions due to severe weather.
- In one line: Hot, thanks to the naturally delayed oil boost.
- Core retail sales were very strong again in April; sales in February and March were revised up too.
- But spending looks set to falter ahead, as the lift from tax refunds fades, and gas prices stay elevated.
- We now look for a 1% expansion in consumers’ spending in Q2, but a mere 0.5% gain in Q3.
- Manufacturing continues to drag on activity in Mexico, due to weak demand and capex.
- Construction volatility and the uneven execution of public investments are limiting a broader recovery.
- Mining and AI-linked exports offer partial support, but industry still points to subdued growth in H2.
- Leading indicators on EZ investment took a hit in early Q2, but some are overstating the weakness.
- Upturns in German manufacturing and French construction capex remain upside risks for 2026.
- Surveys signal balanced inventories ahead of frontrunning the supply shock caused by the Iran war.
- Some of March’s strong GDP gain was front-running ahead of supply-chain disruption...
- …But our measure of underlying activity grew solidly too, suggesting genuine strength.
- We now expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q2, up from 0.1% previously.
In one line: Investor sentiment rebounds in May, slightly.
In one line: Boosted by capital goods.
In one line: The core will snap back in May, but a fuel duty cut will lower energy inflation.
Boosted by several one-time jumps; momentum to fade this summer.
- In one line: Boosted by several one-time jumps; momentum to fade this summer.
- Half of the rise in the April core PPI was due to a jump in gross margins; they won’t stay so high for long.
- A further third of the gain was driven by a step jump in transportation prices; unlikely to be repeated..
- Data center investment still is providing only a small lift to overall construction activity and employment.
- Brazil — Domestic issues cool the external-driven rally
- Mexico — Consolidating after a solid rally
- Colombia — Local flows prevent an uglier picture
- Headline inflation in India was much softer than expected in April, merely inching up to 3.5%...
- ...Low food-price base effects were the sole reason; our daily food tracker points to a big reversal in May.
- We’ve cut our 2026 average inflation forecast to 3.4%, even if diesel prices are raised by up to 8%.
- The Xi-Trump summit is likely to be about optics and relationship building with no major policy breakthrough.
- China enters the talks with stronger leverage, as its trade exposure to US demand has declined sharply.
- Markets should monitor Phase Three trade talks, any Boeing deals, Iran war coordination, Taiwan arms sales.
- EZ employment growth slowed further in Q1, leaving a thin margin of safety ahead of the energy shock.
- Industrial production in the Eurozone fell in Q1, but the output PMI promises much better data ahead.
- French fuel prices are rising faster than in the other major EZ countries, and the government can’t help.
