Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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- Inflation in the Eurozone jumped in March, and will rise further in coming months, to 3%.
- We now see higher food inflation adding 0.1pp and 0.2pp to the EZ HICP in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
- Risks are tilted towards an April hike, but we still think the ECB will wait until June.
- Unrevised GDP growth of 0.1% quarter-to-quarter in Q4 2025 confirms the pre-Budget hit to activity.
- The saving rate rose to 9.9% in Q4, from 9.1% in Q3, showing consumers can smooth spending in 2026.
- The current account deficit widened in Q4 and will remain weak in 2026 as energy prices jump.
IRAN-WAR SHOCK COMPLICATES LATAM EASING CYCLE
- OIL-DRIVEN INFLATION DELAYS POLICY NORMALISATION
In one line: Up and away, and more gains are coming.
- In one line: Likely as good as we’ll get in H1, if not 2026 at large.
- In one line: Likely as good as we’ll get in H1, if not 2026 at large.
EUROZONE INFLATION IS SHIFTING HIGHER…
- …FORCING THE ECB TO RESPOND WITH TWO RATE HIKES THIS YEAR, AT LEAST
In one line: A hawkish signal for the ECB.
- February retail sales likely were boosted by a rebound in auto sales and the impact of higher gas prices.
- Sales likely also were boosted by bigger-than-usual tax refunds and unseasonably warm weather.
- But the underlying trend in core sales is weak, and likely to step down further as the energy shock bites.
- Fiscal discipline anchors stability in Argentina, but household weakness is constraining the recovery.
- Inflation remains sticky, limiting policy easing and complicating the economic upturn.
- The energy sector is supporting growth, but financial vulnerabilities are high.
- German inflation soared in March, as energy prices jumped; core inflation was stable.
- We now see EZ headline inflation at 2.6% in March, with the core dipping by 0.1pp, to 2.3%.
- EC selling prices and consumers’ inflation outlook jumped in March, tilting hawkishly for the ECB.
- Healthy credit flows and stable saving patterns suggest confident consumers.
- The activity data will slow in the coming months, but consumers can use savings to smooth spending.
- Business lending was rising, on the back of lower policy uncertainty and expectations of rate cuts.
In one line: German inflation on track to overshoot the consensus today, slightly.
In one line: Fiscal support isn’t going to save Spanish consumer spending in H1.
Two-way trade in the Philippines was picking up steam before the war
- March payrolls will rebound after February’s drop, but a sustained strengthening is not in the cards.
- The end of a major strike will add 32K to March jobs, but recent support from mild weather is over.
- Claims data suggest the unemployment rate was stable in March, but the risks are to the upside.
- Banxico’s policy surprise reflects weaker activity, with the inflation spike considered temporary.
- External shocks from oil and tighter financial conditions raise upside risks and constrain easing.
- Disinflation is becoming more uneven; Banxico must balance supporting growth against inflation risk.
- The INR fell below the symbolic 94 level versus USD last week; the threat is to growth, not so much CPI.
- The BSP held at its off-cycle meeting last Thursday, while likely inadvertently setting a high bar for hikes.
- The global energy shock is hitting inflation harder in Thailand; we’ve raised our 2026 forecast to 0.9%.
- China’s national long-term care reform should boost GDP by almost 1% by 2030...
- ...But more is needed to replace the 6%-of-GDP decline in housing investment since 2021.
- The BoJ’s new natural interest rate and CPI estimate don’t change the big picture; oil prices are key.
- Inflation in Spain jumped in March, but by less than expected due to timely tax cuts by the government.
- We see EZ headline and core inflation at 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively, in March; it will get worse soon.
- Comments from policymakers suggest the ECB is inching towards an April hike.
