Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Hiring sentiment has further to improve in Q1.
- In one line: Unemployment rate at 5-year high should seal a March rate cut, but more timely data suggests stabilisation.
In one line: Fall in electricity prices offset by higher prices at the petrol pump.
- Base effects lifted Brazil’s inflation in January, but underlying price pressures were contained…
- …The COPOM is set to begin its easing cycle in March as inflation expectations remain anchored.
- The BCRP held rates at 4.25% as inflation converges to target, but we still see room for further easing.
- US - Payrolls will slow in February, as the weather lift fades
- EUROZONE - Negative SNB rates unlikely even if inflation hits sub-zero in February
- UK - CPI preview 2: Shave our January forecast to 3.0%
- CHINA+ - China starting to recognise the need for a fresh property policy
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s export growth reaches the highest print since the 1970s
- LATAM - Our LatAm team is on annual leave. Publication will resume on February 25.
- Payrolls in IT and in sectors where AI has the most potential to replace workers remain essentially flat.
- The employment rate of young people has rebounded since last summer, but low job openings are a worry.
- January’s dip in existing home sales looks like noise; recent heavy snow likely will weigh on February sales.
- We think GDP rose by around 3½% in Q4, with consumers’ spending up about 2½%.
- AI-linked capex probably continued to surge, while net trade and inventories also made solid contributions.
- The recent pace of growth, however, looks unsustainable; we expect a slowdown in 2026.
- German electricity prices fell only modestly in January, and petrol prices jumped.
- Low German gas inventories point to upside inflation risk, but also make sense given a shift to LNG supply.
- ZEW investor expectations fell in February but remain close to a cyclical high.
- Jobless rate hitting a 5-year high of 5.2% in December makes a March rate cut more likely.
- But payrolls beat consensus and have nearly stabilised, while redundancies appear to have peaked.
- Private pay rose by the most month-to-month since April and will likely exceed the MPC’s January call.
- In one line: Blame another random spike in gold imports; purchases from Russia are tanking.
- GDP growth in Thailand leapt unexpectedly in Q4, to 2.5% from the post-pandemic low of 1.2% in Q3…
- …But this was largely due to a resumption of normal government business, as well as its mini-stimulus.
- We still see a broad slowdown this year, but have raised our 2026 forecast to 2.2% from 1.8%.
- Fresh thinking on China’s property market is emerging, but with no new policy ideas just yet.
- The new view stresses property as household wealth and thus linked to consumption demand.
- The back-and-forth in state support for Vanke hints at tensions as to how to tackle the developer debt crisis.
- The Swiss economy eked out growth of 0.2% in Q4 after shrinking in Q3. Q1 looks set to be better.
- EZ industry had a challenging December, and surveys point to downside risk in early Q1.
- We think it is only a matter of time before EU leaders get serious about joint borrowing for defence.
- We reflect on our calls, and what we should learn from the misses, in our 500th UK Economic Monitor.
- Solid growth and persistent inflation in 2025 panned out, but job growth was weaker than we expected.
- Our three key themes now? The high neutral rate; structural labour-market shifts; persistent inflation.
In one line: Disappointing; PMI points to downside risks for early-Q1.
In one line: Better than we thought; growth will pick up in Q1.
In one line: Better than we thought; growth will pick up in Q1.
Thailand’s stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP has the interim government to thank
A sudden pop in ‘upstream core’ inflation in India to start the year
In one line: Decent growth confirmed, but risks tilted towards a downward revision in the third estimate.
In one line: Decent growth confirmed, but risks tilted towards a downward revision in the third estimate.
