Disappointing, but not the end of slowing employment costs inflation.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Decent, and the drag from refined petroleum products should reverse in the short run.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: The core is still drifting lower, but slowly does it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: The core is still drifting lower, but slowly does it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Chinese industrial profits continue to improve in Q1 despite March's slowdown
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Strong but won’t prevent a rate cut in June.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: External demand does the heavy lifting, thanks to helpful base effects.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Solid, but construction was boosted significantly by mild weather.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Italian GDP rises for third straight quarter, though a touch less than we thought it would.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Back down to earth, and likely more pain ahead.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: On a roll; outperformance to continue throughout this year
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Someone forgot the give French services inflation the memo, but core inflation fell, all the same.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Manufacturing output in rude health, though the PMIs provide contrasting readings for new orders
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's PMIs indicate manufacturing output surge, despite mixed demand readings; services activity suffers post-holiday dip
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Decent, but growth in domestic demand likely will slow a tad in Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
AN—UNWELCOME—FEELING OF DEJA VU FROM BI
- …GDP GROWTH IN DEVELOPED ASEAN PICKS UP IN Q1
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- US - Does Chair Powell still see no signs of cracks in the labor market?
- EUROZONE - Higher GDP won’t impede first rate cut in June, as core inflation falls
- UK- Forecast Review: strong growth and stubborn services
- CHINA+ - BoJ stands fast, refusing to bow to currency-market pressure
- EM ASIA - A strong—but frankly foolish—policy response from BI
- LATAM - Mexico to hold rates amid inflation surprise and economic rebound
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The FOMC will likely take a hard line on easing today, despite abundant warnings of a weaker labor market.
- The disappointing Q1 ECI is not definitive; leading indicators signal downward pressure on wage growth.
- Ignore the ADP and JOLTS job openings today; the JOLTS quits rate matters far more.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Mexico’s Q1 GDP shows growth momentum is slowing rapidly, amid economic concerns.
- Tighter financial conditions and a still-challenging external backdrop are real threats.
- The labour market performed well in Q1, but higher real interest rates will dent its resilience.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
