Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Modestly deanchored inflation expectations warrant caution from the MPC.
- In one line: The underlying trade balance fell erratically in July, but it will remain weak.
- In one line:Q3 growth on track for 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
In one line: The drag on GDP from net trade in goods is disappearing.
- In one line: Distorted by technicalities; real import demand remains healthy-ish.
- We look for a 0.5% rise in total retail sales in August, slightly above the consensus...
- ...Auto sales likely fell by about 1%, but most indicators of the control measure point to solid growth.
- Homebase data are robust for the payroll survey week; shame they are no longer a bellwether.
- Brazil’s IBC-BR fell again in July, confirming a poor start to Q3 amid broad sectoral weakness.
- Retail and services are slowing as high borrowing costs erode resilience, despite job market support.
- Copom set to hold Selic rate at 15%, signalling prolonged tight policy amid sticky inflation.
- The August bounce in India's inflation should prove short-lived; high food base effects will return…
- …The upward mean-reversion in core CPI is starting to see more cracks and waning momentum.
- We have cut our full-year average forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.3% and 4.2%, respectively.
- China’s August activity data pointed to a broad cooling, especially in domestic demand.
- Fixed-asset investment weakened further, making RMB500B in policy bank funding tools likely.
- Prospects are rising for another round of coordinated targeted stimulus, possibly at the end of September.
- The Eurozone’s nominal goods trade surplus rose at the start of Q3, as imports fell further than exports.
- The bloc’s trade surplus with the US is now half what it was before the Trump administration took power.
- Net trade in goods will likely have a neutral impact on Q3 GDP, despite the increase in US tariffs in August.
- Policy U-turns, a small growth downgrade and higher gilt yields will consume the Chancellor’s headroom.
- We expect the Chancellor to rebuild her £9.9B margin of headroom with stealth, ‘sin’ and duty hikes.
- The Budget will have a minimal impact on the MPC as the adjustments will be backloaded to 2029/30.
- In one line: Caused mainly by more moderate primary articles deflation; still tepid, overall.
In one line: lacklustre broad credit growth, excluding government bonds
In one line: China's August broad activity cooling likely to prompt additional targeted support
- In one line: Expect this to be a temporary headline bounce.
- In one line: Expect this to be a temporary headline bounce.
In one line: A cyclical low; a gentle rebound now lies ahead.
In one line: A further near-term rise is coming before a plunge in early 2026.
- A 25bp easing this week is highly likely, but the vote probably will be split three ways.
- Committee members are still divided on whether rising inflation or unemployment is the bigger risk...
- ...That discord will rule out clear guidance on future easing, though markets will still price-in a big shift.
