Pantheon Publications

3 March 2026 Eurozone Monitor War in Iran to add 0.2pp to EZ inflation between now and June?

• War in Iran will add 0.1-to-0.2pp to EZ inflation between now and June, at current oil and gas prices. 
• Inflation in liquid fuels will jump immediately, but gas and electricity prices will rise more slowly. 
• The ECB will view rising energy prices due to geopolitics as a negative supply shock. 

3 March 2026 UK Monitor Energy prices could stop the MPC cutting more than once this year

• Energy-price rises, if sustained, would add 0.2-to-0.3pp to UK inflation in July, and 0.2pp at year-end.
• The market’s 50:50 probability of a March cut looks fair in these early hours after events in the Middle East.
• But two MPC rate cuts this year are unlikely if energy prices drive inflation to re-accelerate in H2 2026.

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, February 2026

• In one line: Underlying price pressures rising, but feel free to ignore the breach of BI’s range.

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, January 2026

• In one line: No post-Ukraine-war like burst, yet, to expect from export growth.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 March 2026

No post-Ukraine-war like burst, yet, to expect from export growth
Underlying price pressures rising, but feel free to ignore the breach of BI’s range

February 2025 - Latin America Chartbook

LATAM ACTIVITY STABILISES AS POLICY PATHS DIVERGE

• DISINFLATION PROVES UNEVEN, WHILE POLITICAL RISK INTENSIFIES

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Unemployment, Chile, January, 2025

• In one line: Activity softened at the start of the year.

PM Datanote: IPCA-15, Brazil, February, 2025

• In one line: Seasonal firmness, but disinflation remains intact.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, February 2026

In one line: A slight downside surprise, offsetting upside surprises in France and Spain. 

EM Asia Datanote: GDP, India, Q4

• In one line: New series paints a more stable picture of recent years; ’statistical discrepancies’ no longer a bug-bear. 

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Switzerland, Q4 2025

In one line: Growth will pick up further in 2026.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment and State CPIs, Germany, February 2026

In one line: Stability in the labour market, for now; state CPIs tilt dovish. 

EZ Datanote: ECB CES, Eurozone, January 2026

In one line: Still well above 2%, but little impact on the ECB’s reaction function. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France, Feb/Jan 2026

In one line: EZ inflation still looks dovish for February, but not enough to shift the ECB’s stance. 

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, December 2025

• In one line: Household momentum is rebuilding, but still nowhere near as fast as this absurd headline suggests.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 February 2026: Tokyo headline inflation under control

In one line: Tokyo headline inflation under control

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 27 February 2026

Ignore the y/y misses; lots to be reassured about in the Philippine trade details

February 2026 Emerging Asia Chartbook

THAI BALLOT AND HOT Q4 GDP NO SILVER BULLET

• …INDIA’S 2026/27 BUDGET KICKS THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD

2 March 2026 US Monitor The drop in the personal saving rate is unlikely to be revised away

• The personal saving rate can be heavily revised, but we think most of the recent fall is genuine.
• The low saving rate and soft growth in incomes will restrain growth in consumers’ spending.
• PPI data suggest retailers’ margins have normalized, pointing to slowing core goods inflation ahead.