Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 2.9% in February, from 3.0% in January.
- A fall in motor fuel prices, slowing rent inflation, and a drop in live music and hotel prices drag inflation down.
- Commodity price rises mean inflation will sink to only 2.4% in June and rebound to 3.0% in September.
EUROZONE INFLATION IS SHIFTING HIGHER…
- …COULD THE ECB HIKE THIS YEAR?
In one line: Surge in investment boosted Q4 growth.
In one line: Inflation holds steady; negative rates even less likely than earlier.
In one line: Inflation holds steady; negative rates even less likely than earlier.
- In one line: Q4 confirms stagnation as tight policy weighs on capex.
- In one line: Q4 confirms stagnation as tight policy weighs on capex.
- The housing sector typically see the earliest and biggest boost from looser Fed policy…
- …But homebuilders face considerable headwinds, even if mortgage rates continue to fall.
- These constraints will blunt the boost from easier policy, making additional rate cuts more likely.
- Brazilian Real — Risk-off shock erases February gains
- Mexican Peso — Hit by the geopolitical shock
- Chilean Peso — Middle East shock flips the narrative
- China’s NPC meeting commences today; we expect a lower growth target and a focus on tech self-reliance…
- …US-China trade representatives will meet in Paris next weekend, ahead of April’s Xi-Trump Beijing summit.
- The conflict in Iran likely adds 0.1pp to East Asian inflation over a few months, due to logistics issues.
- Headline inflation in Switzerland held steady at 0.1% in February; deflation is unlikely going forward…
- …The SNB will stand pat in 2026 and will instead intervene in FX markets to stem currency strength.
- GDP growth in Italy picked up in Q4; we expect even stronger quarterly growth throughout 2026.
- Industrial production likely rebounded in January, since manufacturing activity continues to recover.
- Surging A&E attendances indicate upside risk to services output from healthcare activity.
- Output in the construction sector will fall again, as the wet weather dampened activity.
In one line: Korean PMI points to building inflation pressure
- In one line: Rising domestic and external demand lifting most boats.
Rising domestic and external demand lifting most boats in ASEAN
- US - Soft February jobs to imply Fed will ease again midyear, despite Iran war
- EUROZONE - Markets now look for an ECB hike this year, but we doubt it
- UK - Energy prices could stop the MPC cutting more than once this year
- CHINA+ - Low Tokyo headline inflation allows BoJ to take its time on rate moves
- EM ASIA - India’s new GDP more stable and carries greater credibility
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation still benign as seasonal hits distort February print
- Expect just a 0.2pp uplift to the CPI if the $10 jump in WTI oil prices lasts; the core CPI impact is a wash.
- We look for a 0.6% fall in headline sales in January, mostly due to a weather-linked plunge in auto sales.
- Winter Storm Fern likely weighed on sales ex-autos too, and the underlying trend also now is weak.
- Brazil’s Q4 GDP confirms minimal growth, as capex plunges and private consumption stalls.
- Exports and agribusiness cushion activity, masking weak domestic demand and an investment collapse.
- The COPOM is set to ease gradually, but the oil shock clouds the inflation and policy outlook.
