Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Weekly Monitor
- German GDP growth was propelled by construction and net exports in Q1; neither will be sustained…
- …but growth in manufacturing capex is bottoming out and real income growth is accelerating.
- We think GDP growth will slow in Q2, to 0.1%, as construction investment and net exports fall back.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The collapse in retail sales volumes in April cuts 0.1pp from GDP growth…
- … but the wet weather and an odd ONS seasonal factor drove some of the sharp fall in April retail sales.
- Retail sales should bounce back strongly in May, and therefore we leave our GDP forecast unchanged.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- US - GDP growth is set to slow—but not collapse—squeezing down inflation
- EUROZONE - Sticky services inflation still the key threat to the outlook for rates
- UK - Sticking to June rate cut, as MPC words lately matter more than data
- CHINA+ - China’s activity data mixed, ahead of incoming support policies
- EM ASIA - Why you shouldn’t hang your hat on Thailand’s Q1 GDP surprise
- LATAM - Brazil’s activity index rebounds in Q1, but risks looming for H2
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- The lagged effect of tight credit and high rates is starting to bite; we're cutting our 2024 and 2025 forecasts.
- The small business sector is under pressure, and consumers are starting to wobble.
- Sustained slow growth will push unemployment up and inflation down; yields will drop, and stocks will struggle.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s real GDP rebounded in Q1, thanks mainly to improving domestic demand, but risks loom for H2.
- Fiscal challenges, a weakening external backdrop and bad weather conditions have clouded the outlook.
- COPOM minutes reinforce the hawkish stance, despite a split vote, and cite fiscal risks to inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Base effects flattered Singaporean NODX growth in April, while real production is disappointing.
- The long-running slide in urban unemployment in India appears finally to have stalled in Q1.
- Remittances growth in the Philippines remains subpar; momentum is waning and the peso lift will fade.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s April retail sales were hit by falling auto sales; the trade -in incentives should provide support.
- Industrial output regained its vim in April, led by high-tech manufacturing.
- Renewed government-bond issuance should restore infrastructure investment growth, after the April dip.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- EZ headline inflation held steady in April, matching the first estimate; core inflation fell slightly.
- The near-term outlook for energy inflation has improved, but that will change if oil prices rebound.
- Services inflation is as sticky as ever and will likely rebound in May; insurance inflation is rocketing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We are unconcerned by the strong net trade contribution to Q1 GDP growth.
- Trade figures will be revised materially, and the Q1 contribution was offset by volatile stock-building.
- Export volumes rose 1.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, excluding precious metals, erratics and oil.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- US - Initial claims better at flagging labor market upturns than downturns
- EUROZONE - Rise in food inflation in April not the start of a new trend
- UK - June is live after MPC chops inflation forecasts
- CHINA+ - April data likely to show tentative improvement in China’s recovery
- EM ASIA - Weak consumers still point to a 2024 slowdown in the Philippines
- LATAM - Banxico keeps rates on hold and strikes a more hawkish tone
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- GDP grew 0.6% quarter-to-quarter in Q1, the strongest since Q4 2021.
- The recovery has been broad-based across sectors and will continue as consumers spend rising income.
- Strong growth shows interest rates are likely not as restrictive as the MPC is factoring in.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Polls point to more seats for the far-right in the European Parliament after June’s vote...
- ...This will have little bearing on policy, even where the EU has exclusive competencies, such as trade.
- Any hard-line recommendations from far-right MEPs will likely be watered down by the majority.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- China’s industrial output likely picked up steam in April, thanks to a modest export rise.
- Falling auto sales probably hit overall retail sales growth, with buyers waiting for further price cuts.
- Government bond issuance should be stepped up from May, heeding clear top-down policy direction.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Taiwan’s export recover y is increasingly dependent on a continuation of US investment in AI.
- BNM is now likely to be on hold for the rest of 2024, as planned subsidy cuts bring upside risks to CPI.
- Falling real wage growth in Malaysia should soon star t dragging noticeably on retail sales growth.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Banxico’s unanimous decision to keep rates on hold at 11% is due to persistent inflationary pressures.
- Upward revisions to headline and core inflation forecasts signal a more hawkish bias than expected.
- The Board is signaling the door is open for further interest rate cuts, as disinflation remains on track.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The birth/death model is likely to make smaller contributions to payroll growth across spring and summer.
- The wave of pandemic-inspired startups is yet to fade from the model, but the turning point is imminent.
- Consumers are becoming increasingly worried about the labor market; spending growth will slow.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- US - April’s payrolls likely mark the start of a shift to much weaker trend
- EUROZONE - Still three more SNB cuts this year, despite rising inflation in April
- UK - MPC Preview: set to signal more cuts than the market expects
- CHINA+ - China’s broadening services recovery will go only so far
- EM ASIA - Taiwan’s Q1 GDP as good as it’ll likely get in 2024
- LATAM - Mexico’s GDP slowing amid macro concerns and policy dilemma
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Our final forecast for Thailand’s Q1 GDP sees growth slowing to just 0.7%, from 1.7% in Q4…
- …The slowdown in consumption is the main drag, alongside the fading yearly lift from net trade.
- The six-month bout of CPI deflation ended in April, as food and transport inflation returned to the black.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s Q1 GDP grew solidly, thanks to vigorous manufacturing output and services growth.
- Services growth is broadening to business services, but the consumption recovery is relatively lacklustre.
- China will follow its own reform path at the Third Plenum, rather than adopting Western prescriptions.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The EZ unemployment rate held steady in March, staying at 6.5% for the fourth straight month.
- Employment growth likely slowed in Q1, in line with the surveys and advance national data...
- ...And will slow to Q3 at least, lifting the jobless rate as labour-force growth stays strong.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
