Pantheon Publications

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, March

• In one line: Decent, and the drag from refined petroleum products should reverse in the short run.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, February

• In one line: Back down to earth, and likely more pain ahead.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 29 April 2024

Downward pressure on the Thai baht continues to intensify
Correction in Vietnamese exports bleeds into Q2
Ignore the headline; retail sales growth in Vietnam is still wobbling
Expect a further leg up in Vietnamese inflation in May, the likely peak

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: A strong—but dumb—policy response.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 23 April 2024

Firmer employment cushions a marginal softening in orders and output in India’s April manufacturing PMI
India’s services PMI remains comfortably above 60; thankfully, April saw an easing in price pressures
Singapore's inflation outlook remains challenging, depsite the March drop

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 22 April 2024

Things are suddenly turning up for Indonesian exports

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, March

• In one line: Little real good news from the smallest deficit in nearly a year.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, March

• In one line: A simultaneous easing in manufactured products and fuel & power deflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: March CPI & February IP, India

• In one line: LPG price cut pulls inflation down below 5% for the first time since October; don’t be fooled by the jolt in IP growth.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 11 April 2024

Base effects are masking lacklustre momentum in Philippine trade

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

• In one line: Independence sufficiently proven, prep for a June cut.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: No surprises here.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Core Production, India, February

• In one line: A y/y bounce inflated by base effects, but trends at the margin are finally turning.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 26 March 2024

Fundamental pressure on the Thai baht persists

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 21 March 2024

India's manufacturing PMI jumps to a 17-year high, but so what?
The rebuild of inflationary pressures in services is becoming harder to ignore

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia