Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- Guarded language from the MPC suggests some pushback against market pricing of three hikes in 2026.
- But rate-setters must be wary, given de-anchored inflation expectations and low trust in the central bank.
- The Spring Statement outlines high levels of issuance, which will continue to push up the neutral rate.
- The oil futures prices relevant for new capital investment have risen by much less than spot prices.
- Greater capital discipline means oil investment is less responsive to jumps in prices than in the past.
- Either way, oil and gas investment is a very small share of the overall economy.
- Thailand’s customs trade deficit in February was a big miss, but this has been deteriorating for a while.
- The oil-price spike will likely see a current account deficit of -1.5% this year, after +3.1% in 2025.
- The BoT won’t mind if the THB falls further though, as it rightly has been more worried about strength.
- German IFO business sentiment sinks as the energy shock hits, denting hopes of a recovery this year.
- We’re lowering our forecast for German investment, but still see decent growth in Q2 and Q3.
- Fiscal stimulus and the net balance between external demand and inventories are tailwinds for growth.
- Headline inflation was unchanged at 3.0% in February, as a rise in core CPI offset weaker services inflation.
- Services inflation above the MPC’s forecast will leave rate-setters more worried about second-round effects…
- Inflation will trough at 2.8% in April before rising back up to 3.7% in November.
- Calls that AI already justifies lower interest rates look ill-founded, given the limited productivity boost so far.
- AI might prove more disinflationary in the future, but the picture is highly uncertain.
- A faster “speed limit” for the economy seems more likely than much lower inflation and interest rates.
- Food and energy shocks have driven inflation higher in Mexico, but core pressures are contained.
- Economic activity weakened sharply at the start of the year, signalling a broader loss of momentum.
- Banxico will hold rates, as inflation risks are persisting and growth slowing, reinforcing its cautious stance.
- India’s PMIs have been softening for a while, but the Iran-war hit is notable, especially in manufacturing…
- …The complete PMIs for Q1 back our downbeat call for GDP of 6.1%; the long-term outlook is unfazed.
- Taiwanese retail sales—ex-vehicles—are better than they look; the war is unlikely to hurt tourist inflows.
- Governor Ueda said yesterday he expects a moderate rise in underlying inflation...
- ...The BoJ’s base case appears to be a swift oil-price fall, with little effect on the long-term inflation outlook.
- But persistently sky-high energy prices would drive up food prices and could force an April rate hike.
- March PMIs point to a hit to activity in services from the war in Iran, but also upside risk to inflation.
- German industry is benefiting from front-running ahead of supply disruption in the Middle East.
- Inflation data will remain front and centre for the ECB, as the PMIs signal upside risk to core inflation.
- The PMI points to GDP growth easing in Q1, but still broadly in line with rate-setters’ expectations.
- We stick with our forecast for GDP to rise by 0.2% in Q1, but with downside risks to that call.
- The MPC will wait for more data before making judgements on how the war is impacting the economy.
- The Q1 fall in households’ wealth implies a $50B hit to spending, equal to 0.2% of annual consumption.
- Spending on recreation services is closely correlated with changes in households’ wealth...
- ...and near-real time data indicate that food services spending is already taking a hit.
- Consumption remains resilient in Mexico, but softening fundamentals signal momentum will slow ahead.
- Sticky services inflation and higher energy prices limit room for Banxico to resume its easing cycle soon…
- …It will likely prioritise its credibility, delaying cuts as external risks and inflation pressures intensify.
- Singapore’s combined January-to-February CPI suggests that inflation is still ticking up in Q1...
- …We note an alarming increase in health insurance premiums, which is being reined in for Q2.
- The Middle East energy crisis looks set to push inflation above 2% in Q2.
- China residential property market remains in the doldrums, with a 43% drop in sales month-to-date…
- …Construction area is still declining, while developer funding improved slightly thanks to policy support.
- Korea’s 20-day exports maintained robust growth in March, riding strong semiconductor demand.
- EZ interest rate expectations are being thrown around by the news-flow from Iran…
- …Too much tightening is now priced in for 2026; don’t pay rates into the March survey data.
- Tighter ECB policy means a flatter yield curve, similar to when pre-GFC rate hikes began in 2006.
- We assume indirect energy effects lift CPI inflation by almost as much as the direct energy price rises.
- Indirect energy effects are more delayed than motor fuels and utility prices, prolonging the inflation surge.
- We expect inflation to peak at 3.7% in November, but this is highly sensitive to oil and natural-gas prices.
- Higher gas prices look set to reduce real household incomes by roughly $15B a month.
- Tax refunds will boost incomes by about $10B year-over-year in February to April, but taper off thereafter.
- Bigger refunds also will do little to help lower income households hit hardest by higher gas prices.
- Brazil’s rate cut marks the start of the easing cycle, but the inflation outlook has become more uncertain.
- External shocks and oil prices will curb disinflation, reinforcing the need for gradual policy adjustment.
- The COPOM is keeping its options open, but high uncertainty limits scope for faster rate cuts ahead.
- Malaysian current average Q1 expor ts are growing by 15.1%, meaning Q1 GDP will likely be strong…
- …Inflation was held at bay in Februar y but will now likely rise, because of higher crude oil prices.
- Taiwan’s central bank left rates on hold, and seems to be too sanguine about growth in 2026.
