Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- Japan’s snap election on Sunday produced a historic two-thirds majority for PM Takaichi’s LDP.
- She is in a strong position to press ahead with the food consumption tax cut, but funding details are awaited.
- On Thursday she called for a stable cut in the debt-to GDP ratio; she’ll likely avoid a Liz Truss moment.
- The 2026 budget in France aims for a modest improvement in the deficit, to 5.0% of GDP.
- A slowdown in tax revenue is a key risk for French budget consolidation efforts this year…
- …monthly fiscal revenues were rising briskly as of Q4 25; markets will scrutinise these data closely in 2026.
- The ONS updates CPI weights twice a year, in January and February.
- Our forecast of weight changes raises our inflation forecast only fractionally; by 3bp on average in 2026.
- ONS improvements to hotel price measurement will likely reduce seasonal swings in the component.
- Openings fell in December to their lowest level since September 2020; AI is weighing more on hiring.
- Small business openings are falling, casting doubt over the upbeat payrolls signal from the NFIB survey.
- The quits rate still points to a further decline in wage growth this year; the Fed has room to ease further.
- Chile’s IMACEC rebounded, led by commerce, services and resilient domestic demand momentum.
- Falling inflation, pension-reform liquidity and easier credit conditions set a positive tone for H1.
- Banxico pauses easing as sticky core inflation and fiscal pressures delay convergence to target.
- Indonesian Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, at 5.4%, and is likely closer to 7.0% in reality…
- …Consumption is the real hero, not investment; we’ve upgraded our 2026 growth forecast to 5.1%.
- The leap in inflation in January was quite deceptive; calm food prices force us to cut our 2026 call.
- China has issued key commentary on its financial future, with RMB reserve-currency status in focus.
- Its ambition goes beyond reserve currency, though, to becoming a major financial power too.
- Structural constraints and other deficiencies limit RMB reserve status, despite its progress in global usage.
- Ms. Lagarde hinted at a rate cut if March forecasts fall below September’s baseline; we doubt they will…
- …The threshold for the ECB to take evasive action in March due to EURUSD is high, likely around 1.25.
- German factory orders soared by almost 10% in Q4, but survey data signal downside risk in Q1.
- A dovish five-to-four MPC vote to hold rates alongside changes to guidance signal a March rate cut.
- The MPC slashed its two-year-ahead inflation projection by 30bp, justifying two rate cuts this year.
- We shift our call to a March rate cut, from April before, but think sticky pay will stop the MPC easing again.
- Adobe’s Digital Price Index is uncorrelated with the official data; its January jump should be ignored.
- The US is too big an economy for the 2026 World Cup to have anything more than a trivial impact on GDP.
- We expect a small lift to consumers’ spending in the summer, but even that might be hard to see in the data.
- Brazilian Real — Carry, and USD weakness
- Chilean Peso — Copper rally and policy credibility
- Mexican Peso — Strong start to the year, but…
- EZ inflation dropped below 2% in January, and is set to remain at that level in February.
- The dovish pressure on the ECB will increase into the March meeting, but likely not enough for a cut.
- A downgrade to the ECB’s near-term core inflation forecast is the main dovish risk for policymakers.
- The January PMI hit an 18-month high, consistent with 0.3-to-0.4% quarter-to-quarter growth in Q1.
- Jobs continue to fall, according to the PMI, as the payroll-tax hike forces firms to cut back.
- But falling jobs are structural; PMI price balances were broadly steady above inflation-target-consistent levels.
- Truflation has been dragged down by new rents, mortgage interest and temporary food promotions...
- ...But these all will have a small or zero impact on the official measure of inflation in January.
- The manufacturing turnaround implied by the January ISM survey looks too good to be true.
- Brazil’s Q4 industrial weakness confirms a recession in the sector due to tight financial conditions.
- Sentiment has stabilised, but demand remains soft as high rates constrain manufacturing activity.
- A March rate cut will likely support a gradual recovery, but downside risks remain elevated.
- India’s 2026/27 budget is the least restrictive we’ve seen in years, seeing a trivial deficit consolidation…
- …to 4.3% of GDP; an achievable target in our view, given the natural capex ceiling and realistic tax goal.
- The start of a new anchor—debt-to-GDP—will mean faster consolidation from 2027/28 though.
- Soft French inflation data point to the EZ HICP conforming to the consensus today.
- We still see higher domestic inflation offsetting disinflationary currency strength in Switzerland…
- …Swiss headline inflation was likely stable in January, at 0.1%; will the SNB intervene to push down CHF?
- Issuance changes, a drop in the fiscal risk premium and weaker data pushed down yields from November.
- But the gilt-market rally is reversing as political risk rises and the market prices fewer cuts from the MPC.
- We expect 10-year and 30-year yields to rise to a 2026 high of 4.60% and 5.40%, respectively, in Q3.
- The most reliable surveys collectively signal a 75K rise in January payrolls, but we look for a 100K increase...
- ...Supported by milder-than-usual weather in early January and a partial recovery in retail payrolls.
- The Conference Board’s consumer survey, however, indicates the unemployment rate edged up to 4.5%.
- A 100bp rate hike signals alarm over inflation expectations after Colombia’s huge minimum-wage increase.
- Board divisions, fiscal slippage and fuel subsidies complicate BanRep’s efforts to restore policy credibility.
- Strong demand and tight job markets force the Bank to prioritise controlling inflation over near-term growth.
