Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- .China’s Q2 real GDP growth weathered the tariff war, as exports to non-US markets picked up…
- …But nominal GDP growth was the lowest since Q4 2022, as deflation steepened.
- Consumption is likely to remain sluggish, with wage growth slowing in Q2.
- Disinflation is accelerating in Argentina, with headline and core prices reaching multi-year lows in June.
- Tight fiscal and monetary policy continue to anchor expectations, despite the ARS and political noise.
- BCRP held at 4.5%, signalling caution amid global uncertainty and anchored inflation expectations.
- India’s two main inflation gauges were very soft in June, with food prices now deflating at all levels…
- …Food deflation at the retail level will likely persist until the end of 2025, due in part to base effects.
- We have downgraded our average CPI forecasts for this year and next to 2.5% and 4.9%, respectively.
- The ONS BICS survey is timely, samples seven times more firms than the PMI and covers all the economy.
- The BICS survey suggests stickier services inflation than the PMI and a stronger job recovery since April.
- US tariffs are having a small impact on the UK economy, with 78% of firms unaffected.
- We think headline retail sales were little changed in June, after falling in April and May.
- A small price-driven increase in control sales was likely mostly offset by another fall in auto sales.
- Homebase are roughly consistent with 150K for July private payrolls, but we prefer to trust other indicators.
- China’s broad credit growth rose in June, but mainly thanks to government-bond issuance.
- The rise in corporate borrowing is distorted by the local-government debt swap; it’s likely still sluggish.
- M1 jump is hopeful but may prove a blip given the lack of supporting data elsewhere pointing to an upturn.
- Brazil’s weakness in industry and services highlights the growing drag from tighter financial conditions.
- Mr. Trump’s tariff move threatens exports, investment and already-fragile economic momentum.
- Mexico has also been hit by the tariff noise, but markets are still betting on a negotiated outcome.
- Malaysia’s retail sales are still weak; sales volumes registered no month-to-month increase in May.
- Real wage growth has been stagnant since the pandemic, weighing on disposable incomes.
- Q2 GDP will get no lift from consumption, but the recent rate cut could help Q3
- We expect real household disposable income to grow by 2.0% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.
- Elevated inflation expectations will likely keep wage growth slowing only gradually.
- Our call for 1.5% year-over-year consumption growth over 2025-to-27 needs only a modest saving rate fall.
- The OBR has again deemed the public finances to be on an unsustainable trajectory.
- Climate-change mitigation and an ageing population will be costly for the exchequer.
- Lifting productivity growth is crucial for ensuring the debt burden remains manageable.
- President Trump’s policies will slow the flow of immigration into the US, but not halt it entirely.
- The idea that a big migrant exodus from the labor market is already underway is at odds with the data.
- We continue to think labor demand will grow more slowly than supply, lifting the unemployment rate.
- Brazil’s inflation is stabilising, but the US tariffs shock threatens growth and adds new inflation risks.
- Market reaction has been swift, but fundamentals and carry still support a stable BRL outlook.
- Services inflation remains sticky and disinflation could stall if external strains persist or escalate.
- The BoK kept the policy rate unchanged in July, citing concerns over trade policy and Seoul’s housing market.
- The MPB was torn, focusing its decision on trade- induced growth worries versus financial stability risk.
- We expect the Bank to resume rate-cutting once apartment prices show signs of easing in Seoul.
- Green shoots of recovery emerge in the housing market as stamp duty disruption fades.
- The RICS new buyer enquiries balance jumped by the most month-to-month in 24 years, ignoring Covid.
- Homeowners should face a much smaller refinancing rate rise this year than in 2023 or 2024.
- Adobe's Digital Price Index suggests some goods prices rose in June at the fastest pace since 2023.
- Primary rent probably rose at an above-trend pace in June, while airline fares likely stopped falling.
- Residual seasonality continues to blight the services price data; expect a bigger rise in June than in May.
- Brazil — New highs, but risks cloud the outlook
- Mexico — Rally cools as policy risks resurface
- Chile — IPSA steadies post-rally, with upside scope
- The BNM made its first rate cut in five years, reducing the overnight policy rate to 2.75% from 3.00%.
- The Bank is clearly prioritising weak consumption and exports above the risk of re-sparking inflation.
- Indonesian retail sales remain subpar in spite of the May bounce; no early signs of a stimulus boost.
- China’s producer deflation is entrenched, but the worsening in June was due to temporary factors.
- Auto prices rose, after firms pledged faster supplier payments; other sectors are making supply policies.
- Weak core consumer inflation is indicative of poor demand; all eyes on the end-month Politburo meeting.
- The UK’s unsustainable government-debt trajectory leaves gilts vulnerable to selling off.
- The OBR this week detailed risks to its projection that government debt will hit 270% of GDP in the 2070s.
- Gilt yields will likely avoid a sharp sell-off as long as the government sticks to reasonably tight fiscal rules.
- Exemptions and sector-specific tariffs cover most imports from Japan, leaving the “reciprocal” rate irrelevant.
- Raising the reciprocal rate of EU imports to 50% would boost the US CPI by nearly 1/2%, but a deal is likely.
- The NY Fed survey continues to paint a far more upbeat picture than the other major consumer surveys.
