Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- GDP growth in the Philippines inched up in Q1, to 5.4%, but a big import bounce is to blame…
- …Activity broadly improved, especially government spending, though the Q1 bump should be a one-off.
- Consumption should improve this year due to low inflation, while capex still faces many headwinds.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The MPC shifted dovishly yesterday, cutting growth and inflation forecasts due to heightened uncertainty.
- But rate-setters disappointed the market, which had seen a chance of “gradual” guidance being ditched.
- We still look for two more rate cuts this year, but now in August—versus June previously—and November.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The FOMC sees little cost in waiting to discover which side of its dual mandate needs most attention.
- A lot more tariff-sensitive data and news will come between the June and July meetings; the FOMC will wait.
- BED data point to a 20K fall in the birth-death model’s contribution to monthly payroll growth ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Brazilian Real — Stability tested as external risks mount
- Mexican Peso — Rallying on trade relief, but…
- Chilean Peso — Buoyed by copper and strong real data
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI plunged to a new post-Covid low in the wake of “Liberation Day”…
- …But it looks like China’s struggles are more pressing, for now, and it’s best to wait for hard IP data.
- We’ve slashed our 2025 average inflation forecast for the Philippines to just 1.8%, from 2.5%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The PBoC yesterday announced targeted policy-rate and RRR cuts to bolster growth ahead of trade talks.
- The interest rate cut came earlier than we expected, capitalising on room created by CNY strength.
- The Bank is guiding to targeted mortgage rate cuts to support the stumbling ‘ordinary’ housing market.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We expect CPI inflation to jump to 3.6% in April, from 2.6%, matching the MPC’s February forecast.
- Ofgem’s utility price hike, a massive water-bill increase, tax hikes and indexed prices drive the rise.
- Inflation will likely stay above 3% until January, despite recent falls in oil and natural gas prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Markets have relaxed and the economy is holding up, so the FOMC needn’t signal a June easing today.
- The FOMC will have two more CPI reports and news on reciprocal tariffs if it waits until July.
- The latest trade data suggest pre-tariff stockpiling was very limited outside of a couple of sectors.
Samuel TombsUS
- BCCh held the policy rate at 5.0%, as external risks remain elevated and inflation is volatile.
- Resilient growth masks deeper job-market weaknesses, limiting the scope for near-term easing.
- Commodity-price declines highlight Chile’s vulnerability to shifting global trade dynamics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indonesian growth fell to 4.9% in Q1, as base effects hit public spending and construction flat-lined…
- …Machinery capex should come under more pressure soon, with Chinese import demand cratering.
- We have cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast slightly, to 4.9% from 5.0%, and still see 100bp in BI cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Industrial profitability improved further in Q1, on the back of strong manufacturing production.
- China’s industrial output was bolstered by stimulus demand and tariff front-loading activity.
- External uncertainty does not bode well for producers’ profit outlook, as overcapacity issues are worsening.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Uncertainty hammered the PMI in April, suggesting a chance that UK GDP will fall in Q2.
- The MPC will retain some caution, however, as the PMI shows underlying inflation accelerating.
- Rate-setters can get away with a couple of precautionary rate cuts in May and June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The 20% drop in oil prices since early April probably will provide no real boost to the overall economy...
- ...the lift to consumers’ real incomes will be offset by weaker spending in energy-intensive areas.
- The ISM services prices index jumped in April, but other survey indicators suggest no cause for alarm.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Last week's jump in initial claims was entirely due to the timing of school holidays in New York state.
- Leading indicators, however, are continuing to deteriorate; layoffs in logistics are just a couple weeks off.
- The April ISM manufacturing survey points to a plunge in output and higher core goods prices.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Agriculture props up Mexico’s GDP, but industrial recession reveals underlying economic fragility.
- US tariffs hit manufacturing hard, while weakening labour data signal sluggish services momentum.
- Monetary easing likely to continue, but tight fiscal space limits scope for meaningful stimulus ahead.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Our bullish forecast for Taiwan’s GDP paid off for Q1, as growth jumped to 5.4% year-over-year.
- Exports surged 20%, driven by extreme front- loading ahead of tariffs set on “Liberation Day”.
- We expect this momentum to slow, as the front-loading inevitably fades in the months ahead.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- The Bank of Japan left rates on hold yesterday to no-one’s surprise, but adopted a more bearish outlook.
- Governor Ueda denied that the prospect of delay in attaining the inflation goal means delayed rate hikes.
- It probably does for this year, but Ueda is maintaining room to shift policy in light of trade uncertainty.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- We now think EZ investment is falling, mainly due to sustained weakness in machinery and equipment.
- Leading indicators for construction and services capex look solid, at least before the tariff shock.
- Surveys point to downside risks for inventories in H1, but brace for significant volatility this year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect zero GDP growth in March as industrial production falls and service activity slows.
- Quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.6% in Q1 will comfortably beat the MPC’s projection of 0.3%.
- GDP growth will slow further in Q2-to-Q4 2025 as the trade war begins to feed into the hard data.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- The 0.3% drop in headline Q1 GDP exaggerates how rapidly the economy was slowing...
- ...Consumers' spending on services and non-equipment business investment kept rising in Q1.
- The tariff shock, however, will be much more intense in a few months' time; stagnation lies ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
