Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Brazilian Real — Flows and shifting rate bets
- Mexican Peso — Range-bound after strong December
- Colombian Peso — Wage shock and geopolitics weigh
- The Philippines’ hot December CPI was no surprise to us; we still expect a February BSP rate cut.
- Thai deflation eased as much as expected in December, but core disappointed to the downside.
- Taiwanese CPI inched up in December, but we think it will trend down further this year.
- China’s $11.5B rise in foreign reserves in December was down entirely to currency-valuation effects.
- The large trade surplus has been resilient, despite tariff frictions, due to exports expanding into new markets.
- Our estimated residual net capital outflow probably points to retained export earnings held offshore.
- EZ inflation shifted dovishly in December, setting up a bigger drop in Q1 than the ECB expected…
- …The ECB prefers to sit out near-term volatility in inflation; that preference will be tested in Q1.
- German retail sales growth likely improved slightly over Q4, despite the fall in November.
- We expect CPI inflation to tick up to 3.3% in December, from 3.2%, as tobacco duties rise.
- A later CPI collection date than we assume would tip our forecast to 3.4% via higher airfares inflation.
- Strong BRC Shop Prices for clothes in December pose an upside risk to our forecast.
- We look for a 0.3% increase in the December core CPI, with the risks skewed strongly towards a 0.4% print.
- Late data collection biased downwards the November CPIs for core goods and lodging away from home...
- ...These CPIs will rebound in December, alongside a big rise in airline fares and possibly auto insurance.
- October’s activity rebound reduces recession risk in Mexico, but sectoral momentum remains uneven.
- Services are cushioning any weakness, with industry, investment and external demand capping growth
- USMCA uncertainty, soft remittances and policy noise will keep Mexico’s growth below potential this year.
- GDP growth in Vietnam surprised massively to the upside in Q4, rising to 8.4% from 8.1% in Q3…
- …But we still expect to see a sustained moderation this year; our revised 2026 forecast is 7.5%.
- Export momentum has almost vanished, FDI is rolling over, and wage growth is softening.
- Risks have swung to a downside surprise in today’s EZ HICP, and the ECB’s forecasts being too hawkish.
- Markets are currently pricing in almost no chance of a further rate cut in H1; that will change soon.
- The EZ PMI is holding on for a gain over Q4, but the direction of travel across the quarter is downward.
- Look past the disappointing headline PMI for December; forward-looking balances improved.
- The Q4 PMI is consistent with 0.0-to-0.2% growth, but new orders point to an improvement in January.
- Price pressures remain stubborn despite weak jobs, which will keep the MPC cautious.
- Tariff revenues fell in December and remain well below levels expected by independent fiscal watchdogs.
- Nearly all of the boost to consumer prices from the tariffs has filtered through; the outlook is benign.
- Home sales are likely to recover in 2026 as mortgage rates fall, but still fall short of pre-pandemic levels.
- Singapore ended 2025 strongly, with GDP growth accelerating to 5.7% in Q4, from 4.3% in Q3.
- Manufacturing drove the uptick, led by pharmaceuticals and electronics exports…
- …We think the headline was inflated by tariff-related front-loading that could fade in coming quarters.
- The December RatingDog services PMI points to slowing demand but a marked revival in sentiment.
- Firms are reluctant to hire though, and services inflation pressure is muted.
- China has provided more funds for consumer subsidies, though less than this time last year.
- We look for an upside surprise in this week’s EZ December inflation data, but all eyes are now on Q1.
- Switzerland likely fell into deflation in December, but the SNB remains poised to hold rates steady in Q1.
- We think EZ retail sales beat the consensus in November, but manufacturing likely weakened.
- Strong ISA savings were likely front-running the Budget rather than signalling weak spending.
- Credit flows to businesses and households rose strongly in November, conveying confidence.
- Mortgage approvals ticked down only slightly, and buyer interest should pick up in 2026.
- We think GDP grew by 3½% in Q3, underpinned by a solid increase in consumers’ spending.
- AI-related capex likely also lifted fixed investment, while net trade made a big positive contribution too.
- But growth seems to have slowed sharply in Q4, mostly due to weakness among households.
- China’s residential sales are still slumping in December, with weakness across all city tiers.
- Tier-one city pre-owned housing prices sank, amid reports of a surge in listings of low- to mid-end units.
- Policymakers seem resigned to a protracted recovery, with no new ideas at the CEWC.
- EZ consumer confidence dipped at year-end, but consumers’ spending should hold up anyway.
- Risks are balanced; inflation in items bought regularly is rising, but the saving rate remains high.
- EZ current account figures show services exports started Q4 on a weak footing, the same as goods.
- Q3 GDP growth was unrevised at 0.1% quarter-to-quarter, down from 0.2% in Q2.
- Business investment in Q3 was revised up, and declining borrowing costs should boost credit flows.
- The household saving rate fell to 9.5% in Q3, from 10.2% in Q2, and should continue to drop in 2026.
- Measurement issues depressed November goods prices, airline fares, rent and auto insurance....
- ...We see no evidence of a slowing in the trend in core-core services prices yet.
- But the outlook looks benign; tariffs are now mostly passed through, while wages and rents are slowing.
