Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- The H2 oil outlook is still largely improving, but normalising food CPI remains the issue in India…
- …Reassuringly, inflation expectations are still subdued, and firms are set to swallow higher costs.
- Taiwanese export growth surprised substantially in March, with electronics still flying.
- Import growth likely peaked in late 2025; a slowdown will support GDP growth in 2026.
- The EZ nominal energy-import bill is now surging, but we think imports are falling in real terms.
- Low gas inventories point to upside risk to the volume of gas imports and prices.
- Payrolls were stable in March, despite the Iran war, once we adjust for likely revisions.
- Unemployment corrected for last August’s volatile rise and suggests the MPC was too pessimistic.
- Slowing pay growth was dovish, but PAYE median pay and surveys suggest the official data have undershot.
- S&P 500 earnings expectations often are wrong-footed by big surprises in the economy’s performance.
- The earnings of large companies also have only a loose relationship with broader economic growth.
- The recent upturn in expected EPS mostly reflects booming AI capex and higher commodity prices.
- Core inflation in Argentina remains elevated, as indexation and second-round effects still bite.
- Temporary shocks are fading slowly as fuel, tariffs and food prices are feeding broader inflation dynamics.
- Policy credibility holds, but a high inflation floor implies a slower and less even disinflation path this year.
- We were correct about Singapore’s GDP growth moderating sharply in Q1; it fell to 4.6%…
- …The MAS increased the rate of appreciation for its policy band; it is rightly worried about inflation.
- Malaysian GDP growth cooled in Q1, as widely expected, with services slowing sharply.
- China’s LPRs and de-facto policy rate were unchanged in April, amid pressure on banks’ margins.
- Banks started a new round of deposit-rate cuts, given the liquidity glut in the system from weak loan demand.
- The MoF is offering ultra-long special bonds at record levels, taking advantage of the risk-averse mood.
- We still think the ECB will respond to higher inflation by tightening policy modestly over the summer.
- In the most extreme inflation scenario, the ECB hikes aggressively but also likely cuts next year.
- EZ construction output fell sharply in January and February, but likely rebounded a touch in March.
- PM Starmer is under further pressure following news that Peter Mandelson ‘failed’ security vetting.
- A leadership contest remains a distinct possibility and would likely increase the focus on debt sustainability.
- The war in Iran will likely lead to a small loosening of the fiscal stance, but costly measures will be avoided.
- Households often borrow more when gas prices surge, and banks have become more willing to lend...
- ...But high interest rates, elevated delinquencies and low confidence suggest people will be cautious.
- Surveys suggest a better times ahead for manufacturers, but big headwinds remain.
- China’s GDP growth rose to 5.0% in Q1, but it was highly dependent on robust exports...
- ...Which are likely to slow as the oil price shock hits global growth.
- Real household spending slowed and underlying consumption activity remains sluggish.
- Inflation in the EZ is on track to hit just over 3% by May, which will prompt the ECB to hike in June.
- Cooling oil prices mask a continued surge in refined- product prices, especially diesel.
- Services inflation will fall in April, holding down the core, but snap back quickly next month.
- February GDP exaggerates the growth trend, because of erratic gains in a number of sectors.
- But growth was surprisingly strong even if we strip out the noise; the economy was recovering.
- We now look for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.5% in Q1, and 0.0% in Q2.
- A huge leap in nominal sales of gasoline likely meant a strong March headline retail sales print.
- Core sales probably also were supported by big tax refunds and unseasonably warm weather.
- We still expect the hit to real incomes from higher gas prices to mean a weak Q2 for consumers.
- Brazil — Election tightens as fiscal loosening intensifies
- Argentina — Reform agenda faces judicial limits
- Colombia — Run-off maths dominate
- China’s trade surplus narrowed sharply in March, as import strength outpaced exports, hit by payback.
- The import surge was led by high-tech items, with price effects outweighing geopolitical energy dynamics.
- Exports were distorted by LNY effects, but underlying momentum was notably weaker for the Global South.
- Industrial production in the Eurozone likely fell in Q1, despite a strong finish to the quarter.
- Our nowcast model points to downside risk to EZ GDP in Q1, but we still see a 0.2% increase, just.
- Recession risks remained low at the end of Q1, but how will the surveys look in Q2?
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February.
- Services inflation should hold at 4.3%, as the early-Easter airfares boost is offset by weaker hotel prices.
- Lower oil prices mean we are close to removing our call for the MPC to hike Bank Rate once this year.
- The 0.1% rise in the March core PPI masked heat in components which feed into the core PCE deflator...
- ...But inflation still look set to fall in H2 as the uplift from tariffs fades, offsetting the energy price boost.
- The fall in the capex intentions index of the NFIB survey to a post-GFC low is most likely noise.
- Colombia’s fiscal anchor has gone, as deficits, rising debt and weak revenues undermine credibility.
- Inflation pressures are persistent and broader, forcing BanRep to tighten despite growth already softening.
- COP resilience looks fragile, with markets likely to drive a correction via interest rates and FX.
