Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- The Q1 fall in households’ wealth implies a $50B hit to spending, equal to 0.2% of annual consumption.
- Spending on recreation services is closely correlated with changes in households’ wealth...
- ...and near-real time data indicate that food services spending is already taking a hit.
- Consumption remains resilient in Mexico, but softening fundamentals signal momentum will slow ahead.
- Sticky services inflation and higher energy prices limit room for Banxico to resume its easing cycle soon…
- …It will likely prioritise its credibility, delaying cuts as external risks and inflation pressures intensify.
- Singapore’s combined January-to-February CPI suggests that inflation is still ticking up in Q1...
- …We note an alarming increase in health insurance premiums, which is being reined in for Q2.
- The Middle East energy crisis looks set to push inflation above 2% in Q2.
- China residential property market remains in the doldrums, with a 43% drop in sales month-to-date…
- …Construction area is still declining, while developer funding improved slightly thanks to policy support.
- Korea’s 20-day exports maintained robust growth in March, riding strong semiconductor demand.
- EZ interest rate expectations are being thrown around by the news-flow from Iran…
- …Too much tightening is now priced in for 2026; don’t pay rates into the March survey data.
- Tighter ECB policy means a flatter yield curve, similar to when pre-GFC rate hikes began in 2006.
- We assume indirect energy effects lift CPI inflation by almost as much as the direct energy price rises.
- Indirect energy effects are more delayed than motor fuels and utility prices, prolonging the inflation surge.
- We expect inflation to peak at 3.7% in November, but this is highly sensitive to oil and natural-gas prices.
- Higher gas prices look set to reduce real household incomes by roughly $15B a month.
- Tax refunds will boost incomes by about $10B year-over-year in February to April, but taper off thereafter.
- Bigger refunds also will do little to help lower income households hit hardest by higher gas prices.
- Brazil’s rate cut marks the start of the easing cycle, but the inflation outlook has become more uncertain.
- External shocks and oil prices will curb disinflation, reinforcing the need for gradual policy adjustment.
- The COPOM is keeping its options open, but high uncertainty limits scope for faster rate cuts ahead.
- Malaysian current average Q1 expor ts are growing by 15.1%, meaning Q1 GDP will likely be strong…
- …Inflation was held at bay in Februar y but will now likely rise, because of higher crude oil prices.
- Taiwan’s central bank left rates on hold, and seems to be too sanguine about growth in 2026.
- The BoJ held the policy rate yesterday, unsurprisingly given the ever-changing oil-price situation.
- Governor Ueda is keeping options open, amid different views on inflation among voting members.
- Our base case is a July rate hike, assuming oil prices fall in the coming months; but April is not ruled out.
- Ms. Lagarde struck a balanced tone, and the ECB moved ahead of the curve with its new forecasts…
- …Yet we think policymakers have made up their minds; hikes are coming, unless growth collapses.
- The SNB left rates at 0.0%. It will use FX intervention to target inflation. The bar to negative rates is high.
- The MPC left Bank Rate unchanged at its March meeting, with a surprising unanimous vote.
- Guidance shifted towards a neutral stance, from being biased towards cuts in February.
- The bulk of the minutes leaned hawkishly in nature, and we now see the bar to rate hikes as lower than before.
- The median FOMC member still expects to ease policy by 25bp this year, unchanged from December.
- The new, higher forecasts for core PCE inflation are plausible, but those for stable unemployment are not.
- PPI data show retailers have passed on all the tariff costs to consumers; margins back on track.
- Brazil — Election race tightens as fiscal risks mount
- Mexico — Fiscal push meets market volatility
- Colombia — Fragmentation sharpens electoral maths
- Oil at $150 should pose no urgent CPI risk to India; fiscally, it’s better placed to manage this shock…
- …Main threat would be higher imported inflation from late-2026, as the CA deficit would blow up.
- Indonesia could see an 11% rise in subsidised fuel prices this year—more than in 2022—with $150 oil.
- China faces the likely prospect of a modest bump in consumer inflation from the oil-price surge...
- ...Soft pork prices are likely to partly offset higher energy costs; but producer inflation could swing dramatically.
- Japan would be more vulnerable to an oil price at $150 per barrel, forcing an early BoJ rate hike.
- EZ inflation is headed for just under 3% by May; the ECB will hike in response, likely in June and July.
- The ECB will justify higher rates by the need to move interest rates to the higher end of neutral.
- History warns against hiking into oil-price shocks, but the ECB will believe it can pull it off, again.
- We expect the data flow to soften as the implications of the war in Iran feed into surveys.
- But the PMI held up for two months after Russia’s invasion in 2022; the housing market will react faster.
- The MPC’s focus on spare capacity means the job data will be crucial for forecasting the path for rates.
- We think headline CPI inflation would soar to 6% if oil prices hit $150, with core PCE inflation rising to 31/2%.
- The jump implies a hit to GDP of just over 1pp, probably lifting the unemployment rate to about 5%.
- We think the Fed would wait until next spring to deliver the 75bp easing we expect this year in our base case.
- Peru’s inflation is rising on supply shocks; anchored expectations allow BCRP to maintain a cautious tone.
- Activity remains resilient and near potential, though energy disruption and external risks cloud the outlook.
- Policy will likely stay on hold, as uncertainty limits the scope for action, at least over the next six months.
