Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- We expect CPI inflation to rise to 4.0%, almost rounding to 4.1%, in September, from 3.8% in August.
- A motor fuels base effect will add 10bp to inflation compared to August, and core CPI another 14bp.
- The BRC Shop Price Index points to a jump in clothes inflation, while used-car price inflation picked up.
- The impact of AI on labor demand so far looks small, even for the most at-risk occupations.
- The payroll slowdown this year has far more to do with trade and immigration policies.
- Auto sales are set to weaken, as an EV tax credit expires and tariffs start to push up prices.
- Split in BanRep’s Board highlights tension between resilient domestic demand and stubborn inflation.
- Loss of IMF credit line underscores fiscal fragility, fuelling market concerns over Colombia’s credibility.
- Minimum wage talks risk entrenching inflation, limiting BanRep’s scope for near-term easing.
- Indonesia’s trade surplus surprised massively to the upside in August, but largely on seasonal factors…
- …Underlying two-way trade growth continues to ebb; exports are fighting a handful of headwinds.
- Inflation rose above BI’s 2.5% target for the first time in over a year, but a Q4 rate cut is still on the table.
- Swiss inflation held at 0.2% for the third straight month; it will remain stuck near zero until Q2 2026.
- The SNB has said it will ignore negative inflation prints in the near term…
- ...We expect the next rate move to be up, in 2027, despite downside risks to our inflation forecasts.
- Bank of England revises data without explanation, shaking confidence in their numbers.
- Revised DMP data show job falls easing, spare capacity stable and price pressures stubborn.
- Underlying disinflation has ceased according to the DMP so the MPC will have to stay cautious.
- The government shutdown will hold up key data releases and likely will drag on economic growth.
- Another 25bp easing from the Fed at its next meeting seems like prudent risk-management.
- The effective tariff rate has now crept up to just 12%, and a further climb is likely in the next few months.
- Brazilian Real — Gains fade after early rally
- Mexican Peso — Resilient, but facing resistance
- Argentinian Peso — Volatility as political noise builds
- The RBI stayed on hold yesterday, but two members called for more dovish implied forward guidance…
- …Its latest GDP forecasts reveal no real faith in the stimulative impact of GST 2.0; we concur.
- Bank on ASEAN’s robust September PMI at your own risk, as underlying it is a very skewed picture.
- Korea’s working-day-adjusted export value growth fell sharply in September, partly due to base effects.
- Manufacturing activity grew the most in 13 months, but the US ‘chip content’ tariff renews uncertainty.
- We expect the BoK to cut rates by 25bp in Q4, once financial stability risk from the housing market lessens.
- Decimals proved dovish in the September HICP, but the main message from the report is hawkish.
- We still see EZ inflation above 2% in Q4, which would make it difficult for the ECB to cut in December.
- We’re lowering our inflation forecasts slightly, but our baseline remains higher than the ECB’s.
- Gilt auctions are still well supported, and financial conditions are orderly, despite high uncertainty…
- ...but yields will remain high as the MPC stays on hold and markets demand a premium for political risk.
- We expect 10-year and 30-year gilt yields to end 2025 at their current rates of 4.7% and 5.5%, respectively.
- JOLTS openings ticked up slightly in August, but the underlying trend in labor demand still looks weak.
- Conference Board’s labor market numbers point to stagnant payrolls and higher unemployment.
- The shifting balance in the labor market points to weaker underlying wage growth ahead.
- Economic activity in Argentina contracts again as fiscal constraints and political instability weigh…
- …The US backstop boosts stability, but the October mid-term elections will test the credibility of reforms.
- A resilient labour market in Brazil masks cooling momentum, with job creation fading.
- Ignore the miss in Indian IP in August; the recent stasis is breaking, and the fixed capex signal is solid.
- Retail sales growth in Thailand crashed back down to earth in July, but expect much more softness…
- …Consumption growth is seeing some stability alongside tourist arrivals; local demand is still weak.
- China’s investment stimulus measures, announced on Monday, should spur an investment rebound in Q4.
- Both September manufacturing PMIs point to a modest but broad improvement in activity.
- Services activity slowed as tourism entered the off-peak season; the construction sector remains weak.
- A hawkish tilt in the German and Italian HICP data leaves our forecast for the EZ HICP at 2.3%.
- We still see the glass as half-full for Q3 consumption in Germany and France, despite soft monthly data.
- German jobless claims ticked higher in September but will fall in October; employment is still subdued.
- Growth in the first half of the year looks well-balanced once we average out tariff and tax front-running.
- Downward revisions to the saving rate in 2022-to-23 suggest the latest figures will also be cut eventually.
- Sharp falls in the profit share are likely to be partly resolved by price hikes later this year and in 2026.
