Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- The fall in Italian GDP in Q2 was confirmed; net trade fell but investment remained resilient
- We now expect Italian GDP to rise in Q3 and Q4, though this still means just 0.6% growth this year.
- The government in France will fall on Monday, but look closely and public finances are now improving.
- The PMI rose to a 12-month high in August, boosted by falling policy uncertainty.
- The PMI signals 0.3% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q3, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- The MPC’s hands will be tied for the rest of 2025, as growth at potential limits spare capacity emerging.
- Brazil’s Q2 GDP growth slowed sharply, as temporary supports fade and monetary tightening bites.
- Household consumption and services showed resilience, but capex saw renewed weakness.
- Peru’s inflation is firmly anchored, giving BCRP flexibility to balance demand and external uncertainty.
- We expect CPI inflation to hold at 3.8% in August, as a jump in food prices offsets a correction in airfares.
- We see upside risk to our call after strong flash Eurozone food CPI inflation.
- Gilts suffer from a global sell-off and UK-specific risks; Ms. Reeves needs to aim for proper fiscal headroom.
- Indonesia’s trade surplus is ballooning again, forcing upgrades to our current account forecasts…
- …But support from US front-loading will soon fade; commodity prices won’t provide much of a cushion.
- Rapidly waning core pressure is the main story behind the soft August CPI; one BI cut still to come.
- China's August PMIs diverged, with RatingDog pointing to a soft recovery from the tariff shock...
- ...but the weak official manufacturing gauge indicates sluggish domestic demand, though pricing improved.
- Services activity rose, on the back of stock-market trading and tourism, but construction is on the rocks.
- The number of people out of work dropped by the most in over three years in July…
- ...As a result, the EZ unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in July and is likely to have held steady in August.
- Labour-market data provide little ammunition for ECB doves in their fight for another rate cut.
- GDP growth beat consensus again in Q2, and surveys point to improving momentum so far in Q3.
- Services inflation is proving sticky, as wage growth remains far too strong to deliver 2% inflation.
- Job surveys were weaker than we expected but continue to point to payroll falls easing.
