Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- We look for a chunky decline in the April PMIs; falling new orders likely will bear the brunt of the hit.
- The euro’s rise is supported by strong portfolio inflows, which look set to continue in Q2.
- Is euro strength a sign of a more structural shift in FX reserve portfolios? Perhaps, but it’s too soon to say.
- The gilt market continues to function well, but yields have been volatile.
- The gilt curve has steepened as markets reprice for more interest rate cuts from the MPC.
- Longer-dated gilts have sold off and remain vulnerable to policy developments.
- The Department of Government Efficiency will achieve only a fraction of its spending cut targets…
- …So reduced federal spending looks set to be only a small headwind for the economy.
- The DOGE federal job cuts are also on course to have only a minor impact on the overall labor market.
- The March retail sales report suggests consumers’ spending rose by 1% in Q1.
- But the hit from tariffs points to stagnant consumption, more or less, in Q2 and Q3.
- The 0.3% increase in March manufacturing output looks like the calm before the tariff storm.
- China’s Q1 growth was already cooling from the Q4 high; hence March’s additional fiscal stimulus.
- Front-loading effects also boosted March exports and industrial output, but this should prove fleeting.
- China will need to stoke domestic demand further, as exports risk hitting a wall in the coming quarters.
- Downside risks are building for EZ inflation, due mainly to the accelerated decline in energy prices.
- Initial evidence points to a disinflationary tariff shock to EZ core goods inflation, but keep an open mind.
- Services inflation will snap back in April, due to Easter effects, but the trend is still downward.
- A May rate cut is a racing certainty after CPI inflation undershot the MPC’s forecast in March.
- But underlying services inflation held steady at 4.5%, while tax hikes, government-set price increases…
- ...and unwinding erratic factors weighing on March inflation will still drive CPI inflation to 3.5% in April.
- Manufacturing output likely jumped by 0.5% in March, returning to its highest level since late 2022…
- …Don’t be deceived; a manufacturing recession is likely in the coming months on the back of tariffs.
- Supply chains look set for disruption, and consumer, industrial and export demand will all soften.
- February’s surge in Mexican industrial output likely reflects temporary front-loading to beat tariff risk.
- Long-term nearshoring prospects clash with short-term volatility and tightening financial conditions.
- Global trade tensions and currency volatility drove BCRP’s decision to hold interest rates steady.
- The March CKGSB index reports reviving Chinese business confidence, despite the imminent trade war.
- Funding conditions have improved thanks to policy support, though profits are under pressure.
- Robust government-bond issuance lifted broad credit growth in March; M1’s rise is somewhat encouraging.
- Banks tightened lending standards less in Q1 than in Q4, but were already worried about tariffs in March…
- ...They expect to tighten lending standards further, while demand for loans among firms fell.
- We revise up our Swiss GDP forecasts, on the back of the 90-day pause to tariff hikes.
- Treat March’s huge payrolls drop with caution, it will very likely be revised up.
- Looking across the range of labour-market data, the picture remains one of gradual loosening.
- Pay growth remains far too high, but the hit to GDP growth from tariffs risks a faster job market easing.
- Pre-tariff purchases of auto and other durable goods imply a strong headline retail sales number...
- ...But real spending on goods looks set to slump over the next few quarters.
- Tariff exemptions for tech leave the gloomy big picture for the broader economy little changed.
- Inflation in Brazil exceeded expectations in March, due mainly to food, as weather and supply shocks persist.
- Activity data point to solid momentum, but industrial output is dropping and leading indicators softening.
- Fiscal risk and BRL weakness complicate COPOM’s task, despite signs of inflation pressures easing ahead.
- China’s export growth bounced back in March, due to a pick-up in activity after the Lunar New Year holiday.
- The increase in shipments was particularly strong to traditional markets, the G7 and the EU.
- President Trump’s postponement of tariffs on electronic goods gives Chinese exports a breather.
- Re-routing could lead to a bigger EZ trade surplus with the US, increasing the risk of higher US tariffs…
- ...One of the ways to stem the flow would be for the EU to hike its tariffs on China; it prefers not to.
- The EU is at great risk of being pulled into the US-Sino trade war, whether it wants to or not.
- Official house prices rose sharply in January, taking year-over-year house price inflation to a two-year high.
- House price inflation will ease to 4.0% year-over-year in December, as higher stamp duty curbs demand.
- Better affordability as markets price more rate cuts will be offset by weaker employment.
- The subdued March core CPI reading will be followed by much bigger increases in the coming months...
- ...But ongoing weakness in underlying services inflation should lessen the trade-off faced by the Fed.
- March PPI data are worth watching for signs retailers are absorbing some early tariff costs in their margins.
- Mexico’s core inflation is contained, allowing Banxico to cut rates despite mounting global trade uncertainty.
- Job creation improved slightly in March, but the Q1 performance signals deeper structural weakness.
- Brazil’s retail resilience faces mounting pressure from labour-market cooling and tight credit.
- The BSP restarted its easing cycle this month with a 25bp cut, to 5.50%, after February’s shock pause…
- …The Board is no longer behind the curve on CPI, as it slashed its 2025 forecast to 2.3%, from 3.5%.
- We’re maintaining our 2.5% CPI call, for now, and still see 75bp more in rate cuts by year-end.
