Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- Inflation in Brazil rose less than expected in February, despite a spike in electricity tariffs.
- Weakening domestic demand will keep inflation pressures in check, but a range of issues remain.
- Mexico’s external accounts are under control, but both external and domestic issues cloud the outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The Bank of Korea cut rates yesterday, as widely expected in the market, given currency stability.
- Anther two cuts are likely, though we see a rising case for three, given domestic political and trade-war risks.
- China’s bond yield uptick likely reflects improved sentiment, but that rests on fragile ground.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Huge volatility under the hood of German Q4 GDP; inventories and net trade are key for H1.
- We see full-year 2025 growth of 0.5% in Germany, lower than previously but above consensus.
- EZ negotiated wage growth retreated in Q4, after the one-off-related jump in Q3; further falls are likely
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Ofgem’s 6.4% hike to the utility price cap from April is 0.8pp higher than the MPC assumed.
- The news would boost the MPC’s inflation forecast by 3bp, leaving it unchanged to one decimal place.
- We continue to expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.5% in April and 3.7% in September.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The total federal government payroll probably is on course to be around 200K smaller by October.
- Lost incomes and greater uncertainty point to a bigger 300K total hit to aggregate payroll growth.
- Monetary policy still is meaningfully restrictive, despite the pick-up in M2 growth.
Samuel TombsUS
- Core inflation is under control, allowing Banxico to eye a 50bp rate cut, but trade tensions loom.
- The benign February inflation report reinforces the dovish stance, yet US tariffs could cloud the outlook.
- In Argentina, Mr. Milei’s austerity is keeping the fiscal recovery on track, but trade tensions are rising.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Korean exports slowed in February, except to Asia ex-China manufacturing hubs.
- Auto exports benefited from front-loading ahead of a likely US auto tariff hike; chip exports should rebound.
- President Trump’s investment restriction memo is a bargaining chip ahead of trade talks with China.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The failure of FDP and BSW to reach 5% paves the way for a CDU/CSU and SPD coalition in Germany.
- Germany’s new government has its work cut out; fiscal reform and defence are at the top of the list.
- EZ inflation rose in January, but a sharp fall in energy inflation will pull the headline down in February.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Households say that now is almost as good a time to save as during the 2008 financial crisis.
- But we are not worried, because saving intentions have been a very poor consumer-spending indicator.
- Confidence in personal finances is solid, and major purchase intentions signal solid retail volumes growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The core CPI-PCE inflation gap likely increased to 0.7pp in January; the relatively big gap will last.
- Tariffs and rising auto insurance premiums will boost the CPI more than the PCE deflator.
- Existing home sales probably dropped in January, marking the start of a sharp fall in Q1 overall.
Samuel TombsUS
- Mexican retail sales stagnated in Q4, with high inflation and weak remittances dampening consumption.
- The labour market remains resilient, but weak job creation signals risks to economic momentum.
- Peru’s growth momentum slowed in December, but the outlook is positive, assuming no tariffs.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- President Xi’s meeting with tech executives on Monday was important for symbolism and policy.
- But it won’t magically solve the macro challenges of sagging profits and weak demand.
- Rapid AI adoption is disruptive for hiring demand; skills mismatches will weigh on the labour market.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Isabel Schnabel has added fuel to the idea that the ECB’s easing cycle will end soon; we agree.
- President Trump’s latest tariff threat—on cars, chips and drugs—would have a small impact on EZ GDP.
- The CDU/CSU will win the German election, but not by enough for a majority; brace for coalition talks.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Firms are adjusting to payroll-tax hikes across several dimensions, rather than just slashing employment.
- More firms say they will raise prices than cut employment in response to increased NICs.
- Accordingly, we think the weakest surveys of job growth are exaggerating the employment slowdown.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Average temperatures and snow cover were in line with seasonal norms last week, unlike in January.
- Homebase data point to weak February payrolls, but they have become a poor guide; wait for better data.
- Expect a low claims print today, but this week’s bad weather and DOGE job cuts will boost claims soon.
Samuel TombsUS
- Bank Indonesia held its policy rate at 5.75%, hitting pause again after January’s surprise rate cut…
- …We’re sticking to our above-consensus 100bp 2025 easing call, with inflation set to cool further.
- Mr. Prabowo’s ‘austerity’ leaves the ball more in BI’s court too, even if this drive doesn’t fully materialise.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s local governments have begun using special- bond funds to stabilise the residential market.
- But in some cases it’s more a matter of moving money from the left pocket to the right pocket.
- More property-policy tweaking is likely during next month’s Two Sessions; gradual progress in prospect.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Mexico — Trade, security and tariffs
- Colombia — Leadership on shaky ground
- Chile — Presidential race gathering momentum
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Europe will need to raise annual defence spending by €250B-to-450B over the next eight years.
- A joint EU financing programme for defence is coming; it could be a big package, close to €1T.
- Inflation and a low multiplier will eat up most of the boost to real GDP from rising defence spending.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation surged as airfares unwound erratic weakness, school fees rose and food prices jumped.
- Rising core goods inflation is offsetting weaker-than-expected services inflation.
- The MPC will have to be careful as inflation heads to 3.7% in September; 4% is not out of the question.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
