Pantheon Publications

10 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's export growth hits 56%; is millennium-high GDP growth next?

• Taiwan’s exports exploded by 56% in November, far above expectations, driven by AI server demand…
• …We are now upgrading our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 12.0%, the highest this millennium.
• Philippine sales volumes continue to slump; only so much borrowing and remittances can do.

9 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's exports continue to cool on US payback, but Q4 looks solid

• Export growth in Vietnam disappointed again in November, as US shipments continue to flail…
• …Overall downside risks are receding though, and the Q4 data point to still-healthy GDP growth.
• Inflation in Taiwan eased sharply in November to 1.2%, but purely due to high base effects.

9 December 2025 US Monitor Weaker labor demand is more than offsetting the immigration hit

• Immigration has slowed sharply this year, but the labor force likely still is growing, slowly.
• The recent upward creep in unemployment implies labor demand has slowed by more than supply.  
• Higher unemployment will squeeze wage growth and keep the pressure on the FOMC to continue easing.

9 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor German data suggest EZ industry started Q4 on a strong footing

• German industry enjoyed a strong start to Q4 and points to a solid October for EZ industry. 
• French and German construction data suggest EZ construction also had a decent October. 
• The first investor sentiment gauge for December, while subdued, still implies upside risk to EZ GDP.

9 December 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview 1: Slowing to 3.5% as food prices drop

• We expect CPI inflation to drop to 3.5% in November, from 3.6% in October.
• A month-to-month fall in food prices and base effects from duty hikes in 2024 will drag inflation lower.
• Our forecast for headline CPI inflation in November sees it 10bp higher than the MPC expects.

9 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation softens slightly in Colombia, but risks remain tilted upwards

• Food deflation softened Colombia’s inflation, but sticky services and indexation are delaying disinflation.
• A widening external deficit and volatile financing flows underscore Colombia’s rising vulnerabilities.
• Minimum-wage pressures and firm domestic demand reinforce BanRep’s high-for-longer policy stance.

5 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Q3 GDP stalls as tight financial conditions bite

Mining saved Brazil’s GDP from an outright fall, but weak consumption highlights the fragile backdrop…

…Services momentum is fading while industry is steady, reinforcing a commodity-heavy growth profile.

Consumption is improving, but persistent capex weakness keeps Mexico’s recovery on rocky ground.

5 December 2025 UK Monitor Collapsing jobs but stubborn inflation mean a cautious rate cut

• Collapsing job growth in the November DMP survey leaves a December rate cut nailed on.
• But the DMP was sampled at the height of Budget chaos so will likely improve in December.
• The DMP shows wage and price disinflation is over for now, so the MPC will still have to be cautious.

5 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Recent days' data a mixed bag, but we maintain a positive view

• The EZ composite PMI was revised up in November, pointing to stronger growth in Q4...
• ...But early hard data for October are weak, and the PMI points to softness in construction.
• Switzerland’s PMIs suggest recession risk remains despite the US-Swiss trade deal.

5 December 2025 US Monitor FOMC to lower inflation forecasts after September's PCE data

• We look for a 0.22% rise in the September core PCE deflator, which would keep the inflation rate at 2.9%...
• ...This will enable FOMC participants to lower their Q4 forecast, clearing the path for easing policy again.
• Initial claims plunged because seasonal adjustment has gone amiss; labor market slack is still rising.

4 December 2025 US Monitor Private payrolls probably holding up better than ADP's data suggest

• ADP’s numbers have considerably understated the initial official estimates of private payrolls this year. 
• Reliable surveys suggest an initial private print of 75K-to-100K in November, still too soft for comfort. 
• A raft of indicators point to consumer weakness in Q4. We think spending will rise by only around ½%.

4 December 2025 LatAm Monitor FX Update LatAm currency gains amid rising 2026 risks

• Brazilian Real — Strong flows and shifting rate expectations
• Mexican Peso — Rebounding, but volatility persists
• Chilean Peso — Election relief and external tailwinds

4 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Target-range inflation in Thailand looking more and more distant

• Thailand’s November CPI prints were firmer than expected, but we still see an MPC cut this month.
• We’ve raised our 2025 forecast to -0.1%, while simultaneously cutting our 2026 call to 0.0%…
• … Another power tariff cut is scheduled for January, and underlying inflation pressures are non- existent.

4 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor SNB to stand pat next week despite fall in inflation

• Swiss inflation is now at the bottom end of the SNB’s 0-to-2% inflation target range.
•  It will likely fall further in the near term, to a trough of -0.2% or so, before rising gradually.
• The SNB will ignore sub-zero inflation; it is focused on inflation in the medium term. SNB easing is over.  

4 December 2025 UK Monitor PMI shows growth stabilising after Budget chaos

• Our models indicate that the PMI is consistent with quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1% in Q4.
• But the upward revision from the flash PMI suggests sentiment improved as the Budget became clearer. 
• So, we see a decent chance of the PMI improving further in December.

3 December 2025 US Monitor Is the equilibrium unemployment rate increasing?

• Lower immigration, AI, tariffs and federal job cuts have potential to lift the natural unemployment rate...
• ...But firms are filling openings more easily and plan to slow wage growth, pointing to excess unemployment.
• No signs of excessive unemployment by state or by sector, indicative of a still-low equilibrium rate.

3 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Brazil's industrial weakness deepens, strengthening case for BCB easing

• Industrial output in Brazil disappointed across most categories, as tight financial conditions bite…
• …The PMI signals to ongoing weakness, though sentiment has steadied even as firms trim production.
• Benign price dynamics in Peru leave room for a final rate cut, potentially at next week’s meeting.

3 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Net trade and consumption push Taiwan's Q3 GDP even higher

• Taiwan’s Q3 GDP growth was revised up to 8.2%—a 0.6pp rise— driven by a bigger boost from net trade.
• More granular data on investment reveals its overall weakness was due to inventory drawdown.
• India’s IP and GST readings for Q4-to-date are less alarming once Diwali noise is stripped out.

3 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor November HICP seals the deal for the ECB to hold rates this month

• EZ inflation surprised slightly to the upside in November, matching our forecast.
• Energy inflation is being lifted by widening refining margins but is still low, and set to plunge in January.
• Core goods inflation is likely stabilising at just over 0.5%, with services set to drift lower into 2026.

3 December 2025 UK Monitor Rebounding manufacturing activity to drive GDP growth in October

• We expect manufacturing output to rebound in October, as car factories reopened after a cyber attack.
• Growth in consumer-facing services will ease as pre-Budget worries creep into activity.
• Underlying economic activity is still holding up close to trend, so spare capacity is emerging only slowly.