Pantheon Publications

17 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor PMI falls but still favours ECB hawks' call for no more easing

• The EZ composite PMI slid to a three-month low but still points to GDP rising more in Q4 than Q3. 
• The detail indicates stronger employment growth and so a still-tight labour market… 
• ...As well as rising input costs and greater inflation pressures in 2026.

17 December 2025 UK Monitor Labour market review: job growth will improve, and pay is stubborn

• Chaos running up to the November Budget hit hiring, but by less than payrolls suggest.
• Payrolls will be revised better, vacancies are rising, and jobless claims are down on a year earlier.
• The MPC has enough evidence to cut on Thursday, but stubborn pay growth will keep it cautious.

16 December 2025 US Monitor November CPI data unlikely to ruin the festive mood

• Core CPI inflation likely fell to 2.9% in November, slightly below consensus, from 3.0% in September.
• Auto prices have remained unaffected by tariffs; increases in other goods prices have slowed.
• The rebound in airline fares probably has petered out; rent increases likely continue to slow gradually. 

16 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Kast's mandate signals Chile's return to discipline, and market confidence

• A landslide election resets Chile’s political cycle, restoring a pro-market-reform agenda.
• Early fiscal consolidation, tax reform and deregulation will test credibility and sustain the market rally.
• The benign macro backdrop and BCCh easing create a narrow window to lift capex and potential growth.

16 December 2025 China+ Monitor China's domestic demand still in the slow lane as policy boost fades

• China’s November activity data point to slowing goods consumption but steady services spending.
• Still-falling fixed asset investment has yet to benefit from the quasi-fiscal-stimulus funding support.
• Policymakers will proceed cautiously on tackling the reasons for the weak demand, amid bright exports.

16 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor How have our key indicator forecasts fared this year?

• Our spot forecasts for EZ GDP have outperformed the consensus and the ECB so far this year…
•  …We have improved our EZ inflation forecasts by incorporating our new energy model. 
• We misjudged the dovishness of the new SNB Chairman, affecting our forecasting track record.

16 December 2025 UK Monitor House price inflation will improve gradually in 2026

• Official house prices fell in September, and we think activity will remain weak in Q4…
• ...But the private-sector house price indices are rising again, and surveyors are becoming more optimistic.
• So, we look for house price inflation of 3.0% in Q4 2026, up from 2.25% in Q4 2025.

12 December 2025 US Monitor Weak October retail sales likely to set the tone for Q4

• We think retail sales dropped by a hefty 0.7% in October, dragged down by a big fall in auto sales. 
• A raft of indicators suggest that consumers’ spending will grow at a negligible pace in Q4. 
• The Thanksgiving week drop in continuing claims is a seasonal fluke; the trend remains upwards.

12 December 2025 LatAm Monitor COPOM holds as disinflation makes headway; is a January cut plausible?

• Benign inflation prints in Brazil strengthen the case for
  easing, yet de-anchored expectations force caution.
• Activity is softening without collapsing, supporting a
  gradual, data-dependent transition towards Q1 cuts.
• But external volatility, fiscal uncertainty and currency
  risks keep the bar to a January rate cut set high.

12 December 2025 UK Monitor CPI preview 2: headline falling to 3.5%, but services up to 4.7%

• A food-price drop and tobacco-duty base effects should lower CPI inflation to 3.5% in November.
• We are tracking a chunky hotel-price rise, while a large airfares base effect will drop out of the figures...
• …So, we look for CPI services inflation to increase to 4.7% in November, from 4.5% in October.

12 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor SNB stands pat; we still expect it to stay on hold until early 2027

• The SNB held its policy rate at 0% at its final meeting of the year yesterday, as widely expected. 
• Next year will be boring for Swiss central bank watchers; we expect no change in rates until 2027. 
• The SNB thinks policy is expansionary; it will likely hike next, in 2027, as inflation nears the 1% mark.
    

12 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor "End" to BSP's easing will come when rates fall to 4.25%

• The BSP eased policy further this month, cutting its
  benchmark rate by a further 25bp to 4.50%…
• …We still see a terminal rate of 4.25%; growth
  worries are likely to continue to outweigh CPI risks.
• Indonesian sales growth looks set to hit a 20-month
  high in November, but it may also soon hit a ceiling.

11 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Our nowcasts are in line with our forecasts for the big four

• The French and Spanish economies are losing pace in early Q4, according to the hard data.
• Italian data for October were weak, but carry-overs suggest a better Q4 than Q3 anyway.
• The spike in German wage growth was likely due to one-offs; it will pull up the EZ total.

11 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Equity Update November records, and cautious upside in 2026

• Brazil — Bull phase matures amid policy scrutiny
• Mexico — Underlying support holding
• Chile —  Testing resistance ahead of run-off election  

11 December 2025 UK Monitor MPC preview: cutting rates, and leaving the door open to one more

• We expect the MPC to vote five-to-four to cut Bank Rate at its meeting on December 18.
• Hawks will likely note supply-side weakness, and that the Budget raises medium-term inflation a little.
• The MPC will need to change its guidance for gradual further cuts as it approaches neutral.

11 December 2025 US Monitor Expect a brief skip in the Fed's easing cycle, not a long hiatus

The dots imply three regional Fed presidents who will
vote in 2026 disagreed with this meeting’s easing...

...But we reckon all the permanent voters expect to
ease in 2026; labor data will trigger March action.

Year-over-year growth in the ECI was stable at 3.6%
in Q3, but leading indicators signal a sharp fall soon. 

10 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Inflation uptick signals caution, but Banxico still moving towards easing

• Temporary price shocks lifted headline inflation in Mexico, but underlying pressures are modest…
• …Ongoing tariff risk and agricultural volatility keep the inflation risk balance tilted slightly to the upside.
• Inflation is improving in Brazil, but fiscal risk and tight job conditions will keep policymakers cautious.

10 December 2025 UK Monitor Labour market preview: Budget chaos to hit jobs, but pay stubborn

• We expect ‘final’ payrolls to fall by 13K month-to-month in November, as Budget worries hit jobs.
• The headline LFS unemployment rate will hold at 5.0% in October, as August’s single-month rise corrects.
• Pay growth to slow in October, but wage gains look set to stabilise over the coming 12 months.

10 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Is the German economy about to take off? Early Q4 data suggest so

• German trade figures for October add to the run of positive figures for early Q4. 
• Our nowcast model suggests we are right to look for an increase in GDP in Q4 after stagnation in Q3. 
• Risks remain, however, as leading indicators point to renewed weakness in goods trade in November.

10 December 2025 US Monitor FOMC likely will signal a Q1 pause, but only tentatively

• Investors already expect a two-meeting hiatus in the easing cycle; the FOMC will not signal a longer wait.
• Recent data surprises have reinforced the case for easing; much more data will be available in January.
• We expect 75bp of easing in 2026, but fiscal policy and FOMC personnel changes cloud the outlook.