Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- We expect the MPC to vote seven-to-two to keep Bank Rate on hold at next week’s meeting.
- Payrolls lift the chance of an August cut, but the MPC will likely stick to its “gradual and cautious” guidance.
- We are comfortable assuming only one more rate cut in this cycle, even if it may now come sooner.
- The aggregate DPI is a poor guide to CPI core goods prices, but some components are well correlated.
- The useful component DPIs point to no step up yet in the pace of goods price rises in response to tariffs.
- A very low response rate to NFIB’s survey casts doubt over the May rebound in small business confidence.
- May’s huge fall in payrolls looks exaggerated; other indicators, such as redundancies, are improving.
- Rising LFS employment and falling payrolls point to workers shifting towards self-employment.
- Wage growth is easing gradually but still remains way above inflation-target-consistent rates.
- We think the core CPI rose by 0.3% in May, but a 0.2% increase looks more likely than a 0.4%.
- Indicators point to a moderate step up in the pace of core goods price rises; the surge is coming from June.
- Discretionary services prices likely were soft again, while the seasonals will pull down other services prices.
- Taiwan’s exports surprised in May, rising 38.6%, up from 29.9% in April; the front-loading continues…
- …This will likely mean the central bank holds back on easing when it meets next week.
- Thai deflation likely hit a low in May, but the strengthening THB could lead to its return next year.
- China’s intensifying producer deflation in May reflects soft energy prices, rather than any direct tariff impact.
- Lacklustre core consumer inflation is indicative of still- sluggish domestic demand.
- Policymakers are likely to stick with targeted support, as they gradually implement demand-side reforms.
- We expect CPI inflation in May to slow to 3.4%—close to rounding to 3.3%—from 3.5% in April.
- A correction to Vehicle Excise Duty and airfare falls will be partly offset by strong food and clothes prices.
- May’s CPI inflation will likely match the MPC’s forecast, and services inflation will slightly exceed it.
- Taiwan’s CPI moderated sharply to 1.6% in May, due to food, transport and “Liberation Day”.
- Philippine CPI fell to a 5.5-year low in May, but this should be the nadir, as food CPI will soon creep up.
- Indonesia’s U-turn on electricity discounts has compelled us to raise our 2025 CPI call to 1.8%.
- ADP’s private payroll numbers are a woeful guide to the official data; even back-to-back low prints offer no signal.
- As a result, we are maintaining our forecast for a 125K increase in nonfarm payrolls in May.
- QCEW data imply big downward revisions to payrolls, but mostly because they exclude unauthorized workers.
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- Capex and consumption have weakened in Mexico as high rates and trade tensions dampen confidence.
- Construction and machinery output have slumped, with tight policy and little appetite for long-term capex.
- Banxico’s rate cuts and the USMCA revision will bring limited relief given the persistent structural challenges.
- The ONS overstated April CPI by 0.1pp because of an error in Vehicle Duty; this will be corrected in May CPI.
- We adjust our forecasts only fractionally because we had assumed a good chance that VED was wrong.
- Strong goods prices mean inflation should slow only to 3.4% in May, from the erroneous 3.5% in April.
- The BoJ will probably leave its bond-buying plan unchanged, after signs the market is functioning better.
- Thursday’s 30-year bond auction went well, after reports the MOF is likely to slow ultra-long bond issuance.
- The ruling coalition is likely to lose seats in the July Upper House election though, sparking debt worries.
- Construction spending has dropped significantly in recent months, a trend we expect to continue…
- …Falling spending points to small but sustained declines in construction payrolls ahead.
- Auto sales plunged by 9.4% in May, signalling the broader wave of pre-tariff purchases is now fading.
- Brazilian Real — Stable, but risks loom ahead
- Mexican Peso — Rallying on trade relief
- Colombian Peso — Top-performing LatAm FX in May
- ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI bounced post-“Liberation Day ” but was still below 50 in May, at 49.2…
- …The region’s outperformers—Singapore and the Philippines—lost steam, giving a smaller cushion.
- Forward-looking indicators continue to sour, but at least inflation pressures are receding still.
- The May PMI shows UK growth still weak, but recovering as April’s tariff panic fades.
- GDP growth usually far exceeds the PMI steer when uncertainty is high; we look for 0.3% q/q growth in Q2.
- Services firms squeezing margins holds out the hope of inflation easing, but we think it’s just a blip.
- The JOLTS participation and response rates are very low; downward revisions have been common lately.
- Other indicators point to fading demand for new hires; at the same time layoffs are starting to rise.
- Several “soft” data series have reversed their April plunges, providing some reassurance about activity.
- Brazil’s industry weakened in April, hit by falling domestic demand and a difficult external backdrop.
- Sectoral data show a broad-based decline, under- scoring structural strains and fading external support.
- Mexico’s first judicial election saw a low turnout, political interference and risks to independence.
- China’s May manufacturing PMI readings diverged, as activity gradually revived post-May 12’s tariff truce.
- Small exporters are likely being hit harder by the trade-policy oscillations, and the détente is already fraying.
- Sentiment has held up surprisingly well, and improved slightly in both manufacturing gauges.
- We expect the initial estimate of May payrolls to show a 26K month-to-month decline.
- LFS unemployment will likely tick up to 4.6% in April, and LFS employment should gain 48K.
- We expect year-over-year whole-economy AWE ex-bonus growth to fall to 5.3% in April, from 5.6%.
