Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- The blowout in the trade deficit and revisions to the inventories numbers point to 2% GDP growth in Q4...
- ...but final sales to private domestic purchasers likely rose by about 21/2%, in line with previous quarters.
- Core PCE inflation likely undershot the FOMC’s forecast in Q4, mostly due to measurement issues.
- Activity in Brazil ended 2025 softly, with services weakening and industry hurt by tight conditions…
- …Imminent rate cuts and fiscal support will likely steady growth, though risks remain elevated.
- A chronic lack of stability and voter disaffection cloud elections in Peru, but fundamentals are the key.
- ECB President Lagarde is rumoured to be stepping down early, to pre-empt a populist successor.
- Horse-trading for the presidency and two other Executive Board seats now begins.
- We doubt an early change in ECB President would drive a big policy shift at the Bank this year.
- Insolvencies fell year-over-year in January despite months of political chaos causing weaker growth.
- Retail insolvencies have risen, likely as 2025’s payroll-tax and minimum-wage hikes hit the sector hard.
- But overall business failures should drop a little in 2026, as growth recovers and borrowing costs fall.
- The recent stabilization in building permits probably will be short-lived, given the inventory overhang…
- …Residential construction spending and employment look set to remain under pressure.
- Rising industrial production is mostly due to AI and aircraft demand, not an emerging tariff boost.
- China’s growth will slow as it matures, with speed giving way to stability and structural adjustment.
- Property remains a drag, with sustained producer and consumer reflation unlikely until the market troughs.
- The PBoC is promoting a stronger RMB, while the temporary US trade truce masks a power rivalry.
- Inflation in France fell sharply in January, but is now poised for a rebound as energy inflation rises.
- Consumer electricity prices in France are set to become much more volatile after the regulation shift.
- Core inflation in France should hold around 1% for most of 2026, before rising to 1.5% by December.
- Energy, education, food, rents and airfares cut inflation to 3.0% in January, and further falls are likely.
- But services inflation exceeded the MPC’s forecast by 30bp, and underlying inflation accelerated.
- A March rate cut remains highly likely despite the inflation miss, as rate-setters focus on unemployment.
- Payrolls in IT and in sectors where AI has the most potential to replace workers remain essentially flat.
- The employment rate of young people has rebounded since last summer, but low job openings are a worry.
- January’s dip in existing home sales looks like noise; recent heavy snow likely will weigh on February sales.
- We think GDP rose by around 3½% in Q4, with consumers’ spending up about 2½%.
- AI-linked capex probably continued to surge, while net trade and inventories also made solid contributions.
- The recent pace of growth, however, looks unsustainable; we expect a slowdown in 2026.
- German electricity prices fell only modestly in January, and petrol prices jumped.
- Low German gas inventories point to upside inflation risk, but also make sense given a shift to LNG supply.
- ZEW investor expectations fell in February but remain close to a cyclical high.
- Jobless rate hitting a 5-year high of 5.2% in December makes a March rate cut more likely.
- But payrolls beat consensus and have nearly stabilised, while redundancies appear to have peaked.
- Private pay rose by the most month-to-month since April and will likely exceed the MPC’s January call.
- GDP growth in Thailand leapt unexpectedly in Q4, to 2.5% from the post-pandemic low of 1.2% in Q3…
- …But this was largely due to a resumption of normal government business, as well as its mini-stimulus.
- We still see a broad slowdown this year, but have raised our 2026 forecast to 2.2% from 1.8%.
- Fresh thinking on China’s property market is emerging, but with no new policy ideas just yet.
- The new view stresses property as household wealth and thus linked to consumption demand.
- The back-and-forth in state support for Vanke hints at tensions as to how to tackle the developer debt crisis.
- The Swiss economy eked out growth of 0.2% in Q4 after shrinking in Q3. Q1 looks set to be better.
- EZ industry had a challenging December, and surveys point to downside risk in early Q1.
- We think it is only a matter of time before EU leaders get serious about joint borrowing for defence.
- We reflect on our calls, and what we should learn from the misses, in our 500th UK Economic Monitor.
- Solid growth and persistent inflation in 2025 panned out, but job growth was weaker than we expected.
- Our three key themes now? The high neutral rate; structural labour-market shifts; persistent inflation.
- Payrolls in IT and in sectors where AI has the most potential to replace workers remain essentially flat.
- The employment rate of young people has rebounded since last summer, but low job openings are a worry.
- January’s dip in existing home sales looks like noise; recent heavy snow likely will weigh on February sales.
- EZ construction output jumped in December, partially offsetting the fall in industrial production.
- Adverse weather conditions in Germany point to a sharp drop in construction output in January.
- But leading indicators suggest EZ construction is turning a corner, pointing to a growth boost in 2026.
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 3.0% in January, from 3.4% in December.
- We shaved our call from 3.1% previously, partly as we factor in more generous pub sales than we expected.
- But strong BRC Shop Prices and firm hotel charges mean inflation should exceed the MPC’s 2.9% call.
- We expect the flash payrolls estimate to show a 10K month-to-month fall in January.
- Stabilising single-month unemployment suggests the headline jobless rate will hold at 5.1% in December.
- Wage inflation will tick down in December, but surveys suggest that pay gains will plateau soon.
