Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Daily Monitor
- Manufacturing firms appear to be bringing forward orders to get ahead of supply chain disruptions…
- …That will lift industrial activity, but only in the short term; upward pressure on goods prices is building.
- The outlook for homebuilding remains dim; we expect real residential investment to fall in 2026.
- Consumption and fiscal support continue to cushion activity in Brazil, despite high interest rates
- Investment and confidence indicators point to softer domestic demand over the next three-to-six months.
- Persistent inflation pressures will likely keep the COPOM cautious about further easing.
- EZ PMIs sank further in May, adding to the evidence that the economy is stuck in a stagflationary hole.
- The ECB will focus on soaring input and output price indices, but the PMIs are warning not to over-tighten.
- Relative weakness in French PMIs likely reflects the lack of fiscal space to lean against soaring inflation.
- Increased political uncertainty and high energy costs weighed on business sentiment in May.
- But the PMI overreacts to political noise, and price pressures remain strong.
- We stick to our July rate-hike forecast, but it’s a much closer call as downside risks to growth rise.
- Online searches for furniture and household goods are surging, and Redbook’s data look red-hot...
- ...But Bloomberg’s Second Measure data—a better guide to spending—point to an emerging slowdown.
- …That subdued steer is echoed by falling airline pas- senger numbers and weak consumer confidence.
- Brazil — Institutional tensions deepen
- Mexico — Morena facing mounting pressure
- Colombia — Violence reshaping presidential election
- BI surprised almost everyone with a larger-than-expected 50bp rate hike, amid the IDR’s struggles…
- …This increase should be a one-off; pressure on the IDR will ease and the CPI target still looks secure.
- Malaysian export growth hit 37% in April, as the AI boom further boosted electronics exports.
- President Trump’s visit to China achieved no major breakthroughs, but strategic dialogue will continue…
- …Underwhelming business deals were signed, while no decisions were made on extending the trade truce.
- Japan’s Q1 GDP surprised to the upside, but Hormuz risks complicate the BoJ’s rate-hike decision in June.
- Inflation in the Eurozone rose to 3% in April and will increase further in coming months.
- The ECB is on track for a 25bp rate increase in June, and we look for a back-to-back hike in July.
- A return to 2% inflation next year is a fool’s hope, and the ECB will have to adjust its outlook accordingly.
- Some frozen government-set prices, a utility-bill cut and the early Easter combined to lower inflation.
- We think that most—not all—of the downside inflation surprise in April, such as in airfares, will unwind.
- Weaker underlying inflation lowers the chance of a rate hike, but surveys still point to a sharp acceleration.
- Current fiscal plans imply low-income households will
be squeezed by policy in 2027.
- The President’s budget proposal entails more pain for
households, to part-fund higher military spending.
- Congress will temper proposed cuts to nondefense
spending, but households likely still will be worse-off.
- Primary sectors dragged Chilean growth lower in Q1, despite relatively resilient domestic demand.
- Higher oil prices now threaten inflation, household incomes and the external accounts simultaneously.
- Weak activity will likely keep BCCh cautious, despite elevated external uncertainty and inflation risks.
- Non-oil domestic export growth in Singapore smashed expectations in April, hitting 24.5%...
- …Thanks to continued growth in electronics exports, but also other random unexpected spikes.
- Malaysian CPI ticked up slightly in April, but the more important core inflation moderated.
- China’s tier-one cities are enjoying a ‘mini boom’, raising hopes that the end of the property downturn is in sight.
- But national housing inventories still have almost a year to go before they reach a sustainable level.
- Cities are finding new ways to unlock genuine demand, though developer funding is still under pressure.
- The EZ energy import bill is soaring and will soon push the nominal trade balance into deficit…
- …But the real trade deficit will likely be relatively stable as the volume of import growth slows.
- The hit to EZ GDP growth from falling net trade is over, but we see no strong boost any time soon.
- The sharp fall in payrolls in April looks misleading, as they are far weaker than surveys suggested.
- Payroll revisions remain predictable, and April should eventually show jobs little changed month-to-month.
- Falling jobs and dovish pay growth will keep the MPC on hold in June, but we expect wage gains to improve.
- China’s April data point to slowing activity, only partly explained by the global energy shock.
- Retail sales growth at 0.2% was the worst since December 2022, highlighting poor domestic demand.
- Investment is weak, though probably better than April’s figure—the worst since February 2020—suggests.
- AI-driven layoffs still look limited, but productivity gains seem to be limiting hiring in a few sectors.
- This drag on labor demand, however, looks relatively small compared to the broader AI economic boost.
- We still think AI is more likely to shift the composition of labor demand than depress it significantly.
- Government spending and resilient household demand continue to support activity in Colombia.
- Construction, housing and tradeable sectors remain weak, limiting productive-capacity growth.
- Persistent domestic demand reinforces inflation pressures and strengthens the case for rate hikes.
- GDP growth in Thailand rose unexpectedly in Q1, to 2.8%, but inventories hid a broad domestic easing…
- …We maintain our 2.2% growth forecast for 2026, implying a sustained slowdown to 1.0% by Q4.
- India’s scorching WPI print was no surprise to us, and we find much comfort in still-tepid WPI food.
