Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- German manufacturing remained subdued in Q4, but net trade in goods likely soared.
- Retail sales in the euro area fell midway through Q4, due principally to weakness in Germany.
- Investor sentiment continues to signal upside risk for the EZ composite PMI at the start of 2024.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Business surveys, employment and consumer borrowing data imply GDP is still on a rising trend.
- Output will rebound in many weather-sensitive sectors in November, after October’s bout of heavy rainfall.
- The impact of the fall in Covid booster jabs on health output will be largely offset by a hiatus in strike action.
Samuel TombsUK
- Homebase signals December payroll growth of about 225K; no sign of further weakening yet.
- That said, a disproportionate share of this increase likely will come from healthcare and education jobs.
- The ISM services index likely ticked higher in December, but a steady softening in 2024 is a decent bet.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- EZ headline inflation will match the consensus today, but the core will undershoot expectations.
- The rebound in German inflation in December will be short-lived; the downtrend in the core continues.
- Sticky services inflation in France will soon roll over, judging by surveyed selling prices.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Growth in money supply remained weak in November, largely due to subdued mortgage lending...
- ...But a recovery should take hold from Q2, as buyer de- mand picks up in response to the falling mortgage rates.
- Consumers probably continue to borrow more to fund consumption, as borrowing costs start to come down.
UK
- Jobless claims will be wild over the next few weeks; the underlying trend won’t emerge until mid-January.
- Leading indicators of claims are mixed, but claims are more likely to rise than fall over the next few months.
- The ADP is a deeply unreliable guide to the official payroll numbers; we recommend you ignore it.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Vietnam’s scorching Q4 GDP print is no ‘mission accomplished’; the result is somewhat misleading.
- Sequential momentum appears to have peaked in Q3, and the Q4 jump in industry looks fragile.
- The second half of 2023 benefited hugely from the initial—and likely unrepeatable—bounce in exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The Caixin PMI indicated rising service activity in December, in contrast to the depressed official PMI...
- ...But the Caixin PMI has been a better leading indicator of services production recently.
- Consumer services demand is likely to continue to outperform soft consumer goods demand in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- German jobless claims fell less than expected in December, but we doubt the trend is improving.
- Employment growth slowed midway through Q4, and momentum will wane further in Q1.
- Nominal income growth is slowing, but real wage growth is rebounding as inflation falls.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Business investment as a share of GDP still was in line with its 2015-to-19 average, despite falling in Q3.
- We think it will fall further in the first half of the year, as firms continue to grapple with high borrow ng costs...
- ...But strong balance sheets and recovering sentiment should prevent a sharp decline.
UK
- The economy had no momentum last year, partly because households’ saving ratio increased sharply...
- ...But many people have now replenished their savings; others benefited in Q4 from a jump in financial wealth.
- A revival in mortgage lending in 2024 will lower the saving ratio, ensuring spending rises more quickly than RHDI.
Samuel TombsUK
- Q4 GDP growth in Singapore surprised to the upside, jumping to 2.8%, from 1.0% in Q3...
- ...Boosted by a rebound in the manufacturing sector and robust construction activity.
- We will look to upgrade our 2024 forecast of 1.7% if external demand continues to hold up in Q1.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- EZ manufacturing remained in recession in Q4, but global data point to an improvement in Q1.
- The slowdown in narrow money growth is easing, adding to upside risks for the composite PMI in Q1.
- Private sector lending growth slowed midway through Q4; it will slow further in H1 2024.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The December ISM manufacturing index likely fell, leaving it broadly in line with the cycle low…
- …But falling interest rates likely will lift capital spending and manufacturing activity in 2024.
- The Fed minutes are unlikely to reveal anything new, but we continue to expect rate cuts as early as March.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- December’s NBS manufacturing PMI fell for a third straight month, to the weakest level since June.
- The divergence between the official and the Caixin measures continues, especially on export orders.
- The government will rely more on fiscal policy in 2024. The PSL deployment is a quasi-fiscal example.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Bank Indonesia’s rebranded benchmark rate—the BI rate —was held at 6.00%, as universally expected.
- BI understandably urged caution on food inflation, but base effects here will soon give a helping hand.
- With the core still subdued, the headline should fall below BI’s new target in Q2, paving the way for cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Borrowing in the first eight months of 2023/24 is currently estimated to have topped the OBR's forecast by £6B…
- ...But early borrowing estimates often are revised down, and lower RPI inflation will weigh on interest payments.
- The fall in interest rate expectations suggests Mr. Hunt has scope to cut taxes by about £15B in the Budget.
Samuel TombsUK
- GDP is likely to rebound from Q1 next year, albeit slowly; consensus expects a quicker recovery.
- Inflation will fall more sharply than the consensus or ECB expects in H1, if we are correct on January…
- ...If so, the ECB will cut rates five times next year, starting in March, earlier than consensus expects.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The easing cycle has started in Colombia, as the economy struggles and thanks to the Fed’s shift.
- Chile’s BCCh accelerated the pace of easing, as inflation is falling and economic activity faltering.
- The trajectory of the Fed’s policy will determine the magnitude and timing of interest rate cuts in LatAm.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We think the core PCE deflator rose by only 0.11% in November; the trend is slowing sharply.
- Consumers’ spending is still rising, but the rate of growth is moderating after the Q3 jump.
- Aircraft and autos likely lifted November orders, but expect a soft core.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
