Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- The ECB professes allegiance to data-dependency, but a September cut is now a bit more likely.
- We see two more 25bp cuts, in September and December, with risks tilted towards a third, in March.
- For the first time since hiking, the ECB seems confident that wage growth is, in fact, slowing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We think GDP fell 0.2% month-to-month in April, as wet weather reduced consumer spending.
- We still expect 0.3% quarter-to-quarter growth in Q2, as retail sales should bounce back in May…
- ...Business surveys, moreover, suggest output growth remains robust.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect EURUSD to weaken by 8% to 1.18 by year-end, as the Fed eases faster than the ECB.
- Initial claims likely rose last week; public holidays depress them less now than seasonal adjustment assumes.
- The ISM services index is an unreliable guide to activity, but a weak employment balance points to trouble ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazilian Real — Tumbling amid policy uncertainty
- Mexican Peso — Hurt by MORENA’s landslide victory
- Argentinian Peso — Plunges amid policy uncertainty
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales growth in Singapore disappointed hugely in April, falling to a new post-pandemic low...
- …We suspect that a shift to overseas spending was the main culprit, as income growth still looks strong.
- The risk of CPI re-breaching the BSP’s target range continues to wane, on fading non-core pressures.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Japan’s nominal wage growth rose in May as the ShuntÅÂÂ wage settlements started filtering through.
- That said, we don’t expect a significant broadening of wage growth across sectors and to SME workers.
- Stronger base-pay rises will please the BoJ, but the key is whether this translates into higher spending.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The French sovereign debt rating downgrade passed without fanfare, but is it a sign of things to come?
- Industrial production in France rose at the start of Q2 and looks on track for a rebound after a poor Q1.
- The PMIs suggest a mild cyclical upswing is now underway in the Eurozone economy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The final composite PMI for May points to 0.25% quarter-to-quarter growth.
- Firms are responding to rising output by hiring, suggesting official employment data will rebound soon.
- The PMI indicates services inflation will slow ahead of the MPC’s August interest rate decision.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The trend in German jobless claims points to a rise in the national unemployment rate to above 6%.
- Surveys signal a rebound in employment growth, but the trend in vacancies is still depressed.
- Real wage growth in Germany soared at the start of 2024, but vacancies point to downside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The drop in the Atlanta Fed Q2 GDPNow estimate says very little; it's still far more model than tracking.
- April's JOLTS report brings further signs of labor market normalization. Lower wage growth is likely to follow.
- ADP's data and the employment index of the ISM services survey are hopeless indicators of payrolls.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Brazil’s economic rebound faces a number of headwinds despite solid Q1 growth.
- High interest rates and severe floods will dampen Brazil’s growth prospects over the coming quarters.
- Inflation in Peru cooled in May, paving the way for further rate cuts amid policy uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The BJP’s disappointing result in the 2024 election means the risk of coalition politics in India is back.
- The PMI for ASEAN rebounded well in May, thanks to the fragile recovery of the region’s key exporters.
- Indonesia’s softer-than-expected May CPI bolsters our dovish 2024 view on rates and inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We expect CPI inflation to fall to 2.0% in May, from 2.3% in April, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.
- Almost all the slowdown comes from core goods and services, as large base effects reduce annual inflation.
- We expect services inflation to slow but still exceed the MPC’s forecast by 0.2pp.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The quits rate likely remained just below its 2015-to-19 average in April, signalling slower ECI growth ahead.
- Construction spending has stagnated this year, the boom in S&L and manufacturing spending is over.
- The ISM manufacturing slipped again in May. And a plunge in new orders signals more bad news ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Claudia Sheinbaum makes history after being elected as Mexico’s first female president.
- Ms. Sheinbaum’s victory was expected, but a potential MORENA supermajority brings uncertainty.
- The Chilean economic activity index rebounded in April, but disappointing details point to rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- China’s May manufacturing PMIs sent mixed signals, reflecting the uneven recovery.
- Production continues to power ahead of demand, which 60% of manufacturers view as “insufficient”.
- Stimulus funds have yet to boost construction, but steelmakers are optimistic about the year ahead.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp this week, but the communication will be hawkish.
- How does the ECB stay open to further easing without pre-committing to cuts? We’re about to find out.
- We see little change to the ECB’s near-term inflation forecasts, assuming it is omitting the May HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect PAYE employment to rise 20K in May and April’s fall to be revised close to no change.
- We think private-sector AWE will leap 0.8% month-to-month in April as the NLW hike feeds through.
- Risks are skewed to an even stronger wage print, challenging our call that the MPC will cut rates in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The National Living Wage hike will push private-sector regular pay to a solid 0.8% month-to-month April rise.
- But survey indicators continue to signal gradually slowing wage growth, as recruitment difficulties ease.
- Average weekly earnings growth should slow decisively in H2 2024 as the NLW distortions fade.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Inflation in the Eurozone likely rose a touch in May, to 2.5%, in line with the consensus.
- The EZ labour market is in rude health but poses no threat to the slowdown in wages and inflation, yet.
- The Swiss economy performed better than initially estimated in Q1, boosted by services.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
